Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
300 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

18Z SFC ANALYSIS HINTS AT WEAK WARM FRONT ACRS SC/SE KS WITH 70-70
DWPTS ADVECTING IN FROM THE SOUTH. WHILE UPPER ENERGY IS LACKING
LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPES APPROACHING 4000 J/KG...AND WITH MID LVL
THERMAL TROF SEEN ON MORNING UA RUN WILL KEEP SMALL POPS IN SE KS
WHERE CAP IS THE WEAKEST. OTHERWISE...WILL GO ABV GUIDANCE VALUES ON
TEMPS WITH HIGH DWPTS PUSHING INTO THE REGION ALONG WITH LL JET
INCREASING.

IN LATER PERIODS LEANED TWD ETA/AVN SOLUTION AS IT VERIFIED BETTER
WITH LL MOISTURE FIELDS AND WAS SLOWER WITH PASSAGE OF COLD FRONT.
QUESTION SAT IS IF CONVERGENCE ALONG FRONT CAN TRIGGER TSRA. ETA
DOES SUGGEST WEAKENING OF MID LVL CAP LATE SAT AND WITH PLENTY OF
MOISTURE IN PLACE MAY BE ABLE TO SPARK SOME ISOLATED
TSRA...ESPECIALLY EAST OF ICT. THUS WILL CARRY 20 POPS FOR LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING AHD OF THIS FRONT. TEMPWISE...WILL GO ABV GUIDANCE
VALUES AHD OF THE FRONT AS COMPRESSIONAL WARMING MAY PUSH TEMPS TO
NEAR THE CENTURY MARK IN SC KS. IN CENTRAL ZONES WILL GO COOLER THAN
GUIDANCE VALUES DUE TO WEAK CAA WORKING IN BEHIND FRONT. ETA NEVER
PUSHES FRONT THRU SE KANSAS THUS WILL CONT POPS HERE SAT NIGHT.
AGAIN...LACK OF UPPER ENERGY/CAP STRENGTH BIG NEGATIVES FOR
CONVECTIVE DEVELOPMENT.

AS FRONT PUSHES NORTH SUNDAY...THETA-E RIDGE AND DWPTS POOL AHD OF
FRONT IN CENTRAL KANSAS SO WILL PUT WIDELY SCT POPS HERE WITH SLGT
CHC OF TSRA SOUTH OF BOUNDARY AS AVN SHOWS SHORTWAVE APPROACHING.

HYSELL

FCSTID = 12
ICT   72 100  69  94 /   0  20  20  20
HUT   70 100  69  94 /   0   0  10  20
EWK   71 100  69  94 /   0  20  10  20
EQA   70  98  69  94 /   0  20  10  20
WLD   72 100  69  94 /   0  20  20  20
RSL   66  96  64  93 /   0   0  10  20
GBD   67  97  65  94 /   0   0  10  20
SLN   69  97  66  96 /   0   0  10  20
MPR   69  97  66  97 /   0   0  10  20
CFV   73  96  70  93 /  20  30  30  20
CNU   73  95  70  92 /  20  30  30  20
K88   72  95  70  92 /  20  30  30  20

.ICT...NONE.

KSZ032-033-047>053-067>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-211700-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
1150 AM CDT SAT JUN 20 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES IN CENTRAL KANSAS:
BARTON      COWLEY      HARVEY      MARION      RENO     SEDGWICK
ELLSWORTH   KINGMAN     MCPHERSON   RUSSELL     SUMNER   CHASE
HARPER      LINCOLN     RICE        SALINE      BUTLER

AND IN SOUTHEAST KANSAS:
ALLEN       ELK         LABETTE     NEOSHO      WOODSON
CHAUTAUQUA  GREENWOOD   MONTGOMERY  WILSON

SYNOPSIS:
A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS WILL RESIDE ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
PORTIONS OF CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AND
EVENING. SURFACE LOW PRESSURE AND A DRY LINE ARE FORECAST TO MOVE
EASTWARD ACROSS CENTRAL AND SOUTH CENTRAL KANSAS THIS AFTERNOON AS
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. ABUNDANT
LOW LEVEL MOSITURE IS ALREADY IN PLACE AHEAD OF THESE WEATHER
FEATURES WITH SURFACE DEWPOINTS IN THE 70S ACROSS THE EASTERN THIRD
OF KANSAS.

RELATIVELY WARM AIR IN THE MID LEVELS OF THE ATMOSPHERE WILL LIKELY
CAP...OR SUPRESS...THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT UNTIL MID-AFTERNOON.
HOWEVER....NEAR RECORD TEMPERATURES IN THE UPPER 90S TO AROUND 100
DEGREES SHOULD WEAKEN OR BREAK THIS CAP BY MID TO LATE
AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS SOUTHEAST KANSAS.

THE PRESENCE OF VERY HIGH INSTABILITY AND FORECAST WIND PROFILES
SUGGEST THE POTENTIAL FOR EXPLOSIVE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT WITH
STORMS BECOMING SEVERE RATHER QUICKLY. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALL POSSIBLE LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH THE
EVENING. THE GREATEST RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL EXIST EAST OF A
SALINA TO WICHITA TO ARKANSAS CITY LINE.@

SPOTTER ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED BY MID TO LATE AFTERNOON
THROUGH THE EVENING.

DARMOFAL

KSZ032-033-047>053-O67>072-082-083-091>096-098>100-200130-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
817 PM CDT FRI JUN 19 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WICHITA IS ACTIVATING OUR
SKYWARN SPOTTER NETWORK.

A SKYWARN OPERATOR IS MONITORING AREA NETWORKS.

THE PRIMARY SKYWARN FREQUENCY IS 146.94 MHZ.

SECONDARY FREQUENCIES ARE ALSO BEING MONITORED ON 146.82 AND 145.13 MHZ.

CHANCE