Severe Thunderstorm Warning 101, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
340 PM CDT WED JUN 10 1998

...SHORT TERM...
MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS PRECIPITATION CHANCES. WARM FRONT
CURRENTLY LOCATED ALONG I-70 AND IS EXPECTED TO PUSH NORTHWARD LATER
TONIGHT AS S/W AT 500 MB PROGGED TO PUSH INTO KANSAS. SFC WINDS HAVE
SHIFTED TO THE SOUTHWEST OVER WESTERN KS THIS AFTN SO IT LOOKS LIKE
DRYLINE TRYING TO ADVANCE EASTWARD. NOT SURE WHAT IS CAUSING THIS AT
THE MOMENT BUT TAKING A LOOK AT WATER VAPOR IMAGERY AND 500 MB
PROFILERS..LOOKS LIKE A SMALL S/W IS NOW PUSHING INTO EASTERN
ARIZONA. AM WONDERING IF THIS IS THE S/W MODELS ARE FORECASTING TO
AFFECT US LATER TONIGHT WHILE MAIN WAVE HOLDS BACK OVER SW CONUS.
HAVE GENERALLY FOLLOWED NGM SOLUTION THROUGH 12Z THU. LATEST ADAP
PRODUCTS SHOWS VERY HIGH MOISTURE CONVERGENCE OVER EASTERN KANSAS
ALONG WITH A VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS. IN ADDITION..CAP HAS WEAKENED
OVER THE LAST FEW HOURS WITH SFC TEMPS WARMING TO THE UPPER 80S TO
AROUND 90 DEGREES ACROSS CENTRAL/SOUTH CENTRAL KS DUE TO SOUTHWEST
FLOW. IF ANYTHING DOES GO PLENTY OF INSTABILITY TO WORK WITH. 40 TO
50 KT 850 JET TO SET UP LATER TONIGHT ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE
EXTENDING FROM SOUTHERN OKLAHOMA UP THROUGH SOUTHEAST KANSAS AND
THEN INTO WESTERN MISSOURI. HOWEVER..BEST CONVERGENCE SHOULD BE TO
THE NORTHEAST OF OUR CWA. WILL UP POPS INTO THE 50-60 PCNT CATEGORY
WITH UPPER LEVEL FEATURES APPROACHING AND LEAVE IT OPEN ENDED TIMING
WISE. CURRENT MINS FOR TONIGHT LOOK GOOD WITH BREEZY SOUTH WINDS.

MARIEN

...LONG TERM...
TEMPERATURES LOOK TO BE SOMEWHAT PROBLEMATIC FOR THIS FCST...
COORD CONSENSOUS WUD BE TO LEAN TWD NGM/AVN SOLNS WITH REGARD TO
KEEPING WARMER TEMPS ACRS CNTRL/SERN KS THRU FRI. THE ETA SEEMS TOO
STG/FURTHER S WITH NRN STREAM S/W THU NGT/FRI WHICH WUD PUSH
SFC FNT INTO KS AND PORTEND TO COOLER TEMPS ON FRI. WL OPT FOR THE
WKR SOLN WITH WARMER/DRIER WLY COMPONENT FLO ACRS THE CWA.
OTHWS...WL HOLD ONTO CHC OF TSRA ACRS SERN KS MUCH OF THU WITH
MAINLY MRNG CNVTN FURTHER W ACRS CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AS DRIER AIR ADVCTS
INTO WRN PTNS OF THE CWA BHND DRY LN BY AFTN. DRIER/MORE STABLE WLY
FLO SHUD KEEP LID ON PCPN CHC/S THRU FRI WITH NXT SGNFCT CHC OF RAIN
AND TSTMS TO COME SAT AS PROGD CLOSED LOW OVR CA EJECTS ENEWD ACRS
THE PLAINS. DUE TO UNCERTAINTY IN TIMING OF SYS WL HOLD ONTO CHC OF
TSRA INTO SUNDAY PER PRVS FCST.

DARMOFAL

FCSTID = 13
ICT   68  85  64  90 /  50  40  10   0
HUT   67  85  63  89 /  50  40  10   0
EWK   68  85  63  88 /  50  40  10   0
EQA   67  85  64  89 /  50  40  10   0
WLD   70  86  65  91 /  50  40  10   0
RSL   64  85  59  86 /  50  40  10   0
GBD   65  85  60  87 /  50  40  10   0
SLN   66  86  61  88 /  50  40  10   0
MPR   67  85  62  87 /  50  40  10   0
CFV   70  85  66  90 /  50  40  10   0
CNU   69  84  65  89 /  50  40  10   0
K88   68  84  64  88 /  50  40  10   0

.ICT...NONE.