Flash Flood Warning 6, NWS Wichita, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WICHITA KS
327 AM CST FRI APR 3 1998

...SHORT TERM...
LTLST SFC MAP PUTS LO SW OF P28 WITH WATER VAPOR STLT LOOP INDCG THE
UPR LO TRAILING JUST BEHIND IT.  DRY SLOT WORKING ACRS S CNTRL/SE KS
ATTM BUT EXPC CLDS TO FILL BACK IN BY DAYBREAK.  BOTH ETA/MESO-ETA
SHOWING PERSISTANT LLVL MSTR TRAPPED BLO FNTL INVERSION.  AS A
RESULT HAVE OPTED TO GO CLDY ALL DAY AT ALL SXNS.  MAY SEE A FEW
BREAKS LATE SPCLY IN S CNTRL KS.  SOUNDINGS DO NOT LOOK THAT
FAVORABLE FOR INSTBY TYPE PCPN DURG THE DAY...WITH SUCH A STEEP
INVERSION BTWN 800-850MB.  HOWEVER SOUNDING DO SUG THAT ANY BINOVC
SHUD FILL BACK IN WITH SC.  WNDS MAY BRIEFLY HIT LWR END OF WND
ADVY CRITERIA IMMEDIATEDLY BEHIND SFC LO.  DUE TO LIMITED AREA AND
TIMING HAVE OPTED NOT TO GO WITH AN ADVY ATTM. 850 PROFILER WINDS
CURRENTLY RUNNING ONLY ABT 20 KTS WITH 20-25KTS PROGD DURG THE DAY.
POPS THE BIGGEST CHALLENGE...WITH THE BEST CHC IN NRN SXNS. HAVE
OPTED TO NIX POPS ACRS S CNTRL BUT WL KEEP SML POPS GOING REST OF
FCST AREA.

HOWERTON

..LONG TERM...
MAIN CONCERNS IN THE LONG TERM FORECAST ARE CLOUD TRENDS AND THEIR
EFFECTS ON TEMPS. GENERALLY LEANED TWD THE ETA SOLUTION IN THE
LONGER TERM AS ETA BEST VERIFIED ON 85H TEMP FIELD AND ETA/AVN BOTH
KEPT 85H THERMAL TROF IN PLACE OVER CWA THROUGH 48HRS. THIS SEEMS
MORE REASONABLE THAN NGM/S SOLUTION OF VASTLY WARMING 85H TEMPS AT
48HRS DUE TO 85H REX BLOCK PATTERN.

FOR FRIDAY NIGHT WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN LONGER THAN WHAT PREVIOUS FCST
MENTIONED...BECAUSE 85H CYCLONIC FLOW CONTINUES THROUGH THE NIGHT
AND ETA FCST SOUNDING KEEP LL MOISTURE UNDER STRONG INVERSION.
WITH MOSTLY CLOUDY FCST WILL HOLD MINS UP ABV FWC VALUES.

AS 85H RIDGE SHIFTS EAST THROUGH THE CWA SAT CLOUDS SHOULD CLEAR
FROM WEST TO EAST. STILL..WILL UNDERCUT FWC VALUES FOR HIGHS AS 85H
THERMAL TROF REMAINS IN PLACE. IN THE EXTENDED...WILL INTRODUCE
INCREASING CLOUDS TO CENTRAL KS ZONES AS WEAK SHORT WAVE PULLS OUT
OF THE ROCKIES AND WAA FORMS ACRS CNTRL KS. AT THIS TIME...APPEARS
BEST MID/UPPER DIVERGENCE REMAINS NORTH OF CWA THUS WILL KEEP OUT
MENTION OF PCPN.

HYSELL

FCSTID = 12
ICT   55  37  57  41 /  10   0   0   0
HUT   54  36  57  41 /  20   0   0   0
EWK   54  37  56  41 /  10   0   0   0
EQA   54  37  56  39 /  20   0   0   0
WLD   57  40  58  42 /  10   0   0   0
RSL   52  33  57  42 /  20   0   0  10
GBD   53  35  58  43 /  10   0   0   0
SLN   51  35  56  42 /  20   0   0  10
MPR   53  35  56  42 /  20   0   0   0
CFV   57  39  56  42 /  20   0   0   0
CNU   55  38  54  38 /  20   0   0   0
K88   54  37  53  37 /  20   0   0   0

.ICT...NONE.