Tornado Warning 40, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
130 AM CDT FRI SEP 11 1998

THE 1 AM UPDATE FROM TPC (NHC) POSITIONED T.S. FRANCES JUST 30 MILES
NE OF PORT ARANSAS.  THE SFC AND BUOY REPORTS OVER THE PAST FEW
HOURS CONFIRM THAT THE STORM CENTER SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL WITHIN THE
NEXT HOUR OR SO...WITH THE 06Z SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWING THE CENTER
JUST OFFSHORE AND THE 07Z SURFACE INDICATING THE CENTER JUST
ONSHORE.  THE HEAVIEST RAIN BANDS CONTINUED TO MOVE ONSHORE OVER
SETX AND AM EXPECTING RAIN BANDS TO AFFECT THE FORECAST AREA
THROUGHOUT THE DAY FROM THE GULF.

THE ETA/NGM APPEAR TO BE FORECASTING THE MOVMENT OF THE STORM
WELL...THOUGH NOT THE POSITION OF THE LANDFALL OF THE STORM.  LIKE
THE ETA AS COMPARED TO THE OTHER MODELS...ESPECIALLY SINCE THE AVN
REALLY LINGERS THE STORM OFFSHORE TOO LONG AND THE NGM CURLS THE
STORM CENTER ALMOST DUE SOUTH IN THE LATER PERIODS.  THE STORM LOOKS
TO BE FINALLY CAUGHT UP IN THE CIRCULATION AROUND THE 500 MB HIGH
LOCATED OVER THE CENTRAL PORTON OF THE COUNTRY.  THE ETA FORECASTS
THIS HIGH TO BUILD SOUTH INTO SETX...PUSHING FRANCES WELL WEST OF
THE FORECAST AREA BY LATE TONIGHT.  A STRONG PRESSURE GRADIENT
BETWEEN THE LOW AND THE SURFACE HIGH TO THE NE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
EASTERLY WINDS OVER THE COASTAL AREAS THROUGH TONIGHT AND SATURDAY.

THREATS FOR THE FIRST PERIOD INCLUDE HEAVY RAINFALL AND THE RELATED
FLASH FLOOD THREAT...AND POSSIBLE TORNADOES WITH THE RAINBANDS.
WILL KEEP THE FLASH FLOOD WATCH IN EFFECT TODAY.  WILL ALSO NEED A
WIND ADVISORY IN THE COUNTIES OUTSIDE THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING.
THE COASTAL FLOODING THREAT WILL CONTINUE INTO TONIGHT...AS THE
STORM CONTINUES MOVING WELL INLAND AND THE PRESSURE GRADIENT
DECREASES THE TIDES SHOULD SLOWLY SUBSIDE.

AM EXPECTING TEMPERATURES TODAY TO BE A BIT BELOW THE FWC.  IN THE
LATTER PERIODS WILL GO CLOSER TO THE MOS GUIDANCE.  PL/40

PRELIMS...
CLL T/E  E/B 82/75 90/74 9532 1ST PD...WND 20-30 GUSTY/FFA/WND ADV
NE  T/C >B/B 80/75 87/75 9422 1ST PD...WND 20-30 GUSTY/FFA/WND ADV
IAH T/W  E/B 80/76 90/75 9732 1ST PD...WND 20-30G40 /FFA/WND ADV
                              2ND PD...WND 10-20 AND GUSTY
GLS T/W  E/B 82/77 87/79 9753 1ST PD...WND 25-35G45 AND FFA
                              2ND PD...WND 15-25G30