Severe Thunderstorm Warning 88, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
318 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

STRONG CLUSTER OF STORMS HAVE MOVED OUT OF THE WATERS SE OF HIGH
ISLAND AND INTO LA WITH MDT MESOS INDICATIVE OF THE ENVIORN.  WARM
FRONT APPEARS TO RUN FROM NEAR LCH TO GLS TO JUST OFFSHORE OF PSX
AND THEN COMES ONSHORE BETWEEN CRP/BRO.  RIDGING BEHIND THE FRONT
HAS WEAKENED CONSIDERABLY SINCE 03Z. WIDESPREAD FOG WILL CONTINUE
UNTIL WARM FRONTAL PASSAGE...SEA FOG WILL BE A PROBLEM ALONG THE
IMMEDIATE COAST THIS MORNING. WARM FRONT SHOULD BEGIN THE MARCH
INLAND BEFORE 12Z MAKING SETX MORE VULNERABLE TO THE MUCH
ADVERTISED SVR THREAT.  MDT RISK GLS-IAH AND NORTHEASTWARD-SLIGHT
ELSEWHERE PER SPC. S/W OVER THE  MEX MOUNTAINS LOOKS AS THOUGH IT
WILL BE MOVING INTO THE REGION BETWEEN 15-21Z SPARKING WIDESPREAD
TSRA.  PW 1-1.4...LI <-2...CAPES IN THE 1200-1800 RANGE...STRONG
SFC-700 SHEAR AND FAVORABLE ENVIORN FOR SUPERCELLS.  ISOLATED
TORNADOES A SIGNIFICANT THREAT TODAY MIXED WITH HAIL AND DAMAGING
WINDS.  THREAT SHOULD CHANGE OVER TONIGHT TO MORE OF HAIL AS MID
LEVEL COOLING SETS IN.  CONVECTION ALONG THIS PREFRONTAL TROUGH MAY
LEAVE BEHIND AN INTERSECTING BOUNDARY FOR CONVECTION TO WORK ON WITH
THE COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME THROUGH TONIGHT. GIVEN HOW STRONG THE
SYSTEM IS...RESIDUAL MOISTURE AND THE PACE OF THE FRONT WILL NEED TO
INCLUDE MENTION OF SOME SEVERE FOR TODAY THROUGH TONIGHT...LIMITING
FACTOR ON CONVECTION TONIGHT WILL BE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CAP. WRAP
AROUND MOISTURE WILL BE PREVELANT SUNDAY SO WILL KEEP CLOUDS IN THE
FCST BUT NO SIG POPS FOR SUNDAY. BREEZY CONDITIONS 15 TO 20 MPH AND
GUSTY INLAND ON SUNDAY...WINDY ON THE COAST 20 TO 25 MPH AND GUSTY.
GUSTS TO GALE LOOK QUITE REASONABLE ON NOSE OF 45-50 KNOT 850 JET
IMPINGING ON COASTAL WATERS SUNDAY. TEMPS WILL BE TAKING A SERIOUS
PLUNGE.  WILL FAVOR THE FAN FOR TEMPS.

45

PRELIMS...
CLL TC/  C/C/E 066/045/057/037  7300
IAH TC/T>E/C/E 071/051/062/039  7400
GLS TE/T>E/E/E 069/056/062/044  7510

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-072300-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CITIES IN THE OUTLOOK AREA INCLUDE EDNA...COLUMBUS...
CROCKETT...HUNTSVILLE...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...GALVESTON...AND THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE REGION.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
STORMS.  STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS PRODUCING NARROW SWATHS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.  PERSONS PLANNING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY MAY WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING THEM UNTIL
SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING
AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE FROM THE REGION AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN ADDITION SEA FOG...SOMETIMES DENSE TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

GMZ330-335-350-355-370-375-TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-
226-227-235>238-072300-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAIN OUTLOOK FOR SOUTHEAST TEXAS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
700 AM CST SAT MAR 7 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT TO MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FOR ALL OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS AND THE ADJACENT COASTAL WATERS THROUGH TONIGHT.
SOME CITIES IN THE OUTLOOK AREA INCLUDE EDNA...COLUMBUS...
CROCKETT...HUNTSVILLE...BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...GALVESTON...AND THE
HOUSTON METROPOLITAN AREA.

A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE OVER SOUTHEAST TEXAS TODAY BRINGING DEEP
MOISTURE TO THE REGION.  A STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL
APPROACH THE REGION FROM THE SOUTHWEST THIS MORNING PRODUCING
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS. THESE STORMS WILL BE MOVING
QUICKLY OFF TO THE NORTHEAST.  WINDS IN THE LOWER ATMOSPHERE WILL BE
CHANGING DIRECTION WITH HEIGHT FAVORING THE DEVELOPMENT OF SUPERCELL
STORMS.  STORMS ALONG AND SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT WILL HAVE THE
POTENTIAL FOR STRONG DAMAGING WINDS...HAIL AND POSSIBLY ISOLATED
TORNADOES.  THE PRIMARY THREAT FROM STORMS NORTH OF THE WARM FRONT
WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

A SECOND ROUND OF SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE AGAIN TONIGHT AS A
CANADIAN COLD FRONT MOVES THROUGH THE AREA.

HEAVY DOWNPOURS MAY ACCOMPANY THE STORMS PRODUCING NARROW SWATHS OF 1
TO 3 INCHES. WIDESPREAD RAIN AMOUNTS OF 1/2 TO 1 INCH WILL BE COMMON
ACROSS THE REGION.

ALL INTERESTS ARE URGED TO MONITOR LATER FORECASTS.  PERSONS PLANNING
OUTDOOR ACTIVITIES TODAY MAY WANT TO CONSIDER POSTPONING THEM UNTIL
SUNDAY.

THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL END BY AROUND 3 AM SUNDAY MORNING
AS A PACIFIC COLD FRONT SWEEPS THE MOISTURE FROM THE REGION AND
STRONG NORTHWESTERLY WINDS SET UP ACROSS THE REGION.

MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD ANTICIPATE STRONG TO SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS
MOVING ACROSS THE BAYS AND COASTAL WATERS THROUGHOUT THE DAY WITH A
SQUALL LINE POSSIBLE TONIGHT ASSOCIATED WITH THE COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE. IN ADDITION SEA FOG...SOMETIMES DENSE TO REMAIN ENTRENCHED
OVER THE COASTAL WATERS AND BAYS THROUGHOUT THE MORNING WITH SOME
GRADUAL IMPROVEMENT POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON.

EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS AND STORM SPOTTERS SHOULD BE READY FOR
POSSIBLE ACTIVATION THIS MORNING EXTENDING INTO THE OVERNIGHT HOURS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER WEATHER NEWS SOURCES FOR
THE LATEST UPDATES ON THIS DEVELOPING DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.