Severe Thunderstorm Warning 217, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
205 AM CDT TUE OCT 6 1998

PLEASE AMEND CLL TEMPS AS WIND SHIFT HAS DROPPED TEMPS RAPIDLY.  SEE
UPDATED PRELIMS.

MDLS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH RAIN TODAY BUT DIVERGE
SIGNIFICANTLY FOR TONIGHT AND WED AM.  ETA IS THE FASTEST IN DRYING
THINGS OUT...WHILE NGM KEEPS THE RAIN GOING INTO WED AM AND PRODUCES
AN OVERRUNNING SITUATION.  AVN SOLN LEANS CLOSER TO THE ETA BUT ENDS
PRECIP SOMETIME THIS EVENING.  PW'S ARE FCST TO REMAIN AROUND 2
INCHES TODAY AND COUPLED WITH BROAD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT AND RRQ RAIN
APPEARS LIKELY...LOCALLY HEAVY.  WOULD LIKE TO EXPAND THE FFA TO
COVER THE ENTIRE FCST AREA FOR TODAY.  X-SECTIONS SHOW AIR MASS IS
SATURATED FROM BOTTOM TO TOP...SO THREAT FOR DOWNBURST WINDS HAS
DIMINISHED.  WIND SHEAR NOT NEARLY AS IMPRESSIVE AS FCST YESTERDAY
SO WILL REMOVE MENTION OF SVR FROM ZONES.  MAIN FCST PROBLEM IS WHEN
TO END THE RAIN AND THE EFFECTS ON AREA TEMPS.  CURRENT THINKING IS
TO END PRECIP IN CLL AROUND SUNSET...IAH LATE EVENING AND GLS AFTER
MIDNIGHT.  HAVE LEANED TOWARD ETA/AVN SOLN FOR WED WHICH DRIES
THINGS OUT AND KEEPS TEMPS BELOW 80 DEGREES.  43/42

PRELIMS...
CLL T/B U/A 065/055 079/052  +200  1ST PERIOD: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING TO AROUND 60.

IAH T/C B/A 076/059 079/052  +400  1ST PERIOD: LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY OR SLOWLY FALLING INTO THE 60S.

2ND PERIOD:  MAINLY EVENING

GLS T/W B/A 086/066 080/060  +6-0  1ST PERIOD: 30 PERCENT THIS
MORNING...INCREASING TO 100 PERCENT BY AFTERNOON. LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
THIS AFTERNOON.  TEMPERATURES FALLING INTO THE 70S THI^S AFTERNOON.