Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
156 PM CST MON JAN 5 1998

STATIONARY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTIONS OF TX WITH TEMPS
IN THE 50S...HERE IN SETX TEMPS HAVE MADE IT TO THE MID 70S WITH DWPTS
OF 68 TO 72. ATMOSPHERE VERY UNSTABLE WITH LI -6 TO -8 AND MODIFIED
CAPES OF 2700 S/W ON THE WAY FROM S TX SHOULD PROVIDE THE NEEDED LIFT
TO GET THE SCATTERED SHRA MORE ORGANIZED BY LATE AFTERNOON ALONG THE
I-10 CORRIDOR AND A SECOND AREA FURTHER NORTH BUT NOT AS ORGANIZED.
THIS S/W SHOULD EXIT THE REGION BY MID-EVENING. FOG WILL LIKELY
REDEVELOP AGAIN TONIGHT WITH PATCHY DENSE FOG LIKELY. WILL LET EVENING
SHIFT ISSUE DENSE FOG ADVISORY AS IT DEVELOPS. MAIN TROUGH AXIS WILL
APPROACH THE REGION TUESDAY WITH A POTENT S/W ROTATING OUT ACROSS THE
REGION HELPING TO CREATE THE COUPLED JET STRUCTURE OVER SETX ON
TUESDAY...EXPECT A LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO PROCEED FRONT. PACIFIC
FRONT WILL COME SWEEPING INTO THE EXTREME NW FA TUE
LATE AFTERNOON AND TO THE COAST AROUND 10Z.  MOISTURE WILL BE SLOW TO
EXIT SO WILL HAVE MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES ON WED AND CLEARING ON THURSDAY.
 HEAVY RAIN POTENTIAL LATE THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING AND MORESO ON
TUESDAY WILL REQUIRE EXPANDING THE FFA NORTHWARD...ALTHOUGH THE
NORTHERN AREA WONT BE UNDER THE GUN UNTIL TUESDAY FROM THE LOOKS OF
THINGS.  TEMPS WILL BE ON THE WARM SIDE AGAIN WITH THE WAA GOING
ON...RECORD HIGH MINS LIKELY TONIGHT. BACK DOWN TO SEASONABLE ON
WEDNESDAY AND THEN COOLER ON SATURDAY AS REINFORCEMENTS ARRIVE.

AGREE WITH SPC ON ONLY MINIMAL SEVERE POTENTIAL FOR TUESDAY WITH WET
MICROBURSTS AND PERHAPS SMALL HAIL BUT WILL HOLD OFF AND LET MID
SHIFT MAKE THE CALL ON THAT.

MARINE...S WINDS INCREASING TO 15 TO 20 KNOTS TONIGHT AND S AT 15
TUESDAY...FOR WEDNESDAY MORNING SCA CRITERIA WILL LIKELY BE MET WITH
NNW WINDS 20 GUSTING TO 30 KNOTS...AND CHAOTIC SEAS OF 5 TO 8 FEET AND BUILDING.

45

PRELIMS...
PATCHY DENSE FOG TONIGHT/TUESDAY MORNING ALL ZONES
+RA POSSIBLE ALL ZONES THROUGH TUESDAY

CLL CF F>E/E E 065 068/051 056 685-
IAH CF F>E/E E 066 071/053 056 6872
GLS CF F>E/E E 067 071/058 056 5772