Severe Thunderstorm Warning 113, NWS Houston/Galveston, TX

SOUTHEAST TEXAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
257 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 1998

CF AT 19Z WAS JUST SOUTH OF A JCT...GRK...TYR LN AND JUST NRTH OF CLL
ATTM.  RADAR LOOP WITH GRK SHOWS DVLPMNT OUT AHEAD AND BEHIND FNT AS
CF IS SHALLOW WITH 85H FNT STILL WELL BACK OVR NRTH TX.  WITH STRNG
INSTABILITIES OVR FA...EXPECT THREAT OF ELEVATED ACTIVITY BEHIND FNT
TO CONT OVR FA THRU TNGT AS WELL.  EST TIMING OF SLW MVG CF ATTM IS
CLL AREA ARND 21Z-23Z...IAH 23Z-02Z AND NEAR GLS BY ARND 06Z-09Z.
ETA IS HINTING AT CF HANGING UP OVR COASTAL COUNTIES BUT APPEARS ENUF
PUSH IS PRESENT TO GET IT OFF COAST BY AT LEAST 10Z SAT.  THREAT OF
SVR WX & LCLY HVY RAIN STILL EXSIST LATE AFTN-TNGT AS AFTN CF...AFTN
HTG & WEAK S/WS IN UPR JET ALL TANGLE WITH A VERY MOIST & UNSTABLE
SE TX AIRMASS.  SUSPECT A 1-2 DEG CAP IS HOLDING LID ON THINGS
ATTM...BUT WATCH OUT WHEN THIS GIVES WAY AS CF & OUTFLOWS PUSH INTO
AREA.  AS FOR RMNG FCST PERIODS...MDLS SHOW HIGH PRES BLDG IN WAKE OF
FROPA WITH COOLER/DRIER AIR FILTERING IN ON SAT.  PERSISTANT W-E
ORIENTED ZONAL UPR JET THRU PERIOD WUD SUGGEST SLOW CLRG...IF ANY...
BEHIND FROPA.  THEREFORE...WILL BE SLW TO SCT INLAMND ZONES OUT ON
SAT AND KEEP MC SKIES IN ALNG COAST TILL SAT NGT.  PTLY CLDY AND
COOLER ON TAP FOR SUN BUT RIDGE MVS EWD ALLOWING WNDS TO GO EAST ON
SUN THEN BACK TO A HUMID SE FLOW BY TUES.  LOOKING AT TMPS BEHIND FNT
ENCOURAGES ME TO LEAN TWRD COOLER AVN NUMBERS ATTM.  39

PRELIMS...
CLL  E/E>B B/B 70/85 65/86  7100
IAH  E/E>B B/B 72/86 68/86  821-
GLS  E/E   B/B 77/86 74/86  8321

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>214-226-227-235>238-060400-

SEVERE WEATHER AND HEAVY RAINFALL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
1104 AM CDT FRI JUN 5 1998

THERE IS A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER AND LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL ACROSS ALL OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS...MAINLY FROM LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THROUGH TONIGHT.  SOME CITIES INCLUDED IN THE RISK AREA ARE
BRYAN/COLLEGE STATION...HUNSTVILLE...CROCKETT...LIVINGSTON...
CONROE...HOUSTON...AND GALVESTON.

A LATE SEASON COOL FRONT PREVIOUSLY PARKED OVER NORTH TEXAS IS
NOW ON THE MOVE SOUTHWARD.  THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO APPROACH THE
NORTHERN SECTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON
HOURS...THEN CONTINUE ITS PUSH ACROSS THE AREA DURING THE OVERNIGHT
HOURS.  THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY WARM...MOIST AND UNSTABLE
AIRMASS ALREADY IN PLACE OVER THE REGION.  THIS COUPLED WITH WEAK
DISTURBANCES IN THE UPPER LEVEL JET STREAM WILL ENHANCE THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OUT AHEAD AND
ALONG THE FRONT.

THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE REGION BY LATE AFTERNOON
OR EARLY EVENING...AND CONTINUE OVER MUCH OF THE AREA TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT PUSHES TOWARD THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY SATURDAY MORNING.  THE
COMBINATION OF STRONG INSTABILITIES...A VERY MOIST ATMOSPHERE AND A
SLOW MOVING FRONT WILL ENHANCE THE POTENTIAL FOR SOME STORMS REACHING
SEVERE LIMITS WITH THE ADDED THREAT OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN.  THE MAIN
SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL BE FROM STRONG DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE
HAIL.  ALTHO WIDESPREAD RAINFALL AMOUNTS SHOULD AVERAGE LESS THAN 1/2
INCH...SOME AREAS COULD RECEIVE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES UNDER THE
HEAVIER...SLOW MOVING STORMS.  TOTALS OF THIS AMOUNT OVER A DRY...
HARD CLAY OR CONCRETE SURFACE COULD RESULT IN THE RAPID POOLING OF
WATERS AND ENHANCE THE THREAT FOR LOCALIZED FLOOD AND FLASH FLOODING.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER AND FLOODING WILL BE GREATEST TONIGHT
JUST OUT AHEAD AND ALONG THE FRONT AS IT PUSHES THROUGH THE AREA.
THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO PUSH JUST OFF THE UPPER TEXAS COAST BY EARLY
TO MID SATURDAY MORNING AND END THE THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER.

STORM SPOTTERS AND EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS SHOULD REMAIN ALERT
FOR POSSIBLE ACTIVATION LATER TODAY OR THIS EVENING.  REMEMBER...IF
YOU OBSERVE SEVERE WEATHER...CONTACT YOUR LOCAL LAW ENFORCEMENT
OFFICER FOR RELAY TO THE HOUSTON/GALVESTON NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
OFFICE.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO...RADIO OR TELEVISION FOR THE LATEST
UPDATES CONCERNING THIS DEVELOPING WEATHER SITUATION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-052035-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH
FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE
FROM 4 PM CDT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. THIS DOES INCLUDE HOUSTON...MADISON...
BRAZOS... GRIMES... WALKER... TRINITY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
MONTGOMERY... WALLER... AUSTIN... COLORADO...WHARTON...HARRIS...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES.

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ALSO...THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT IN SOME AREAS COULD PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-052035-

SEVERE WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS WATCH
FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE
FROM 4 PM CDT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. THIS DOES INCLUDE HOUSTON...MADISON...
BRAZOS... GRIMES... WALKER... TRINITY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
MONTGOMERY... WALLER... AUSTIN... COLORADO...WHARTON...HARRIS...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES.

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.

THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ALSO...THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT IN SOME AREAS COULD PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.

TXZ163-164-176>179-195>200-210>213-226-227-235-052035-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED HEADING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX
340 PM CDT FRI JUN 5 1998

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER HAS ISSUED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
FOR THE NORTH AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF SOUTHEAST TEXAS EFFECTIVE
FROM 4 PM CDT UNTIL 10 PM CDT. THIS DOES INCLUDE HOUSTON...MADISON...
BRAZOS... GRIMES... WALKER... TRINITY...POLK...SAN JACINTO...
MONTGOMERY... WALLER... AUSTIN... COLORADO...WHARTON...HARRIS...AND
LIBERTY COUNTIES.

A LATE SEASON COLD FRONT OVER NORTH CENTRAL TEXAS IS MOVING
SOUTHWARD. THE FRONT IS EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS EARLY THIS EVENING AND PUSH ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF
SOUTHEAST TEXAS OVERNIGHT.  THE FRONT WILL ENCOUNTER A VERY WARM...
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS. THIS...COUPLED WITH UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCES WILL ENHANCE THE DEVELOPMENT OF SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS...SOME WHICH COULD REACH SEVERE LIMITS.
THE MAIN THREAT OF SEVERE WEATHER WILL BE IN THE FORM OF
DAMAGING WINDS AND HAIL.  ALSO...THE SLOWER MOVEMENT OF THE COLD
FRONT IN SOME AREAS COULD PRODUCE AS MUCH AS 2 TO 4 INCHES OF
RAINFALL WHICH MAY RESULT IN LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS SEVERE WEATHER
SITUATION.