Severe Thunderstorm Warning 74, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1100 AM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

HAVE UPDATED ZONES TO ADD MENTION OF HVY RAIN/GUSTY WINDS FOR CENTRAL
WI...AND DROPPED HIGH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR TWO ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA.

ALTHOUGH MOSTLY CLOUDY SKIES PERSIST ACROSS MOST OF THE CWA ATTM...FEEL
THAT ENOUGH BREAKS WILL OCCUR IN C/EC WI TO ALLOW SOME LOCATIONS TO
REACH THE LOWER 80S. ALSO...DEWPOINT TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MIDDLE
60S IN THIS SAME AREA...AND ARE EXPECTED TO RISE A LITTLE AS THE
AFTERNOON PROGRESSES. MODIFIED 12Z SOUNDING SHOWED CAPES AS HIGH 2100
J/KG FOR C WI...WITH LI'S APPROACHING -7 AND WBZ HGHTS BETWEEN 12000-
12500 FT. UPSTREAM PRECIP WATER VALUES WERE AT LEAST 150 PERCENT OF
NORMAL. LARGE CLUSTER OF STG TSTMS OVER EASTERN IA IS HEADED TOWARD
C WI...AND SHOULD MOVE INTO THE CWA BY AROUND 19Z. MAIN THREAT WILL
BE VERY HEAVY RAINFALL...BUT DEGREE OF INSTABILITY AND STRENGTHENING
MID-LEVEL FLOW SUGGESTS A THREAT OF DAMAGING WINDS. HAIL THREAT APPEARS
MINIMAL WITH HIGH WBZ/FREEZING LEVEL HGHTS.

COORD WITH ARX/MKX ON FLASH FLOOD WATCH AND DECIDED TO HOLD OFF ON
ANY HEADLINES FOR GRB CWA. FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE SHOWED HIGHEST POTENTIAL
FOR FLOODING ACROSS C WI...BUT MOST OF THIS AREA HAS A SANDY SOIL AND
IS CAPABLE OF HANDLING A SUBSTANTIAL AMT OF RAIN.

KIECKBUSCH

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-182100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

FORECAST:
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO APPLETON TO CHILTON. THE
THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING A WARM...VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER THE STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SHORT-TERM FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

KIECKB6USCH

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-182100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT THU JUN 18 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THERE IS SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL AND EAST
CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON AND ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA
TONIGHT.

FORECAST:
SEVERE WEATHER IS POSSIBLE ACROSS CENTRAL WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON...
MAINLY SOUTHWEST OF A LINE FROM WAUSAU TO APPLETON TO CHILTON. THE
THREAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE ENTIRE FORECAST AREA THIS EVENING. VERY
HEAVY RAINFALL...DAMAGING WINDS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL WILL BE THE
MAIN CONCERNS WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION:
A WARM FRONT WILL LIFT NORTH ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...WITH SOUTHERLY WINDS ADVECTING A WARM...VERY MOIST AND
UNSTABLE AIR MASS INTO THE REGION. AN APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
DISTURBANCE WILL ALSO HELP TO TRIGGER THE STORMS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING
HOURS.

SHORT-TERM FORECASTS WILL BE UPDATED AS NEEDED TO PROVIDE ADDITIONAL
INFORMATION.

KIECKB6USCH