Severe Thunderstorm Warning 129, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
345 AM CDT FRI AUG 14 1998

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS FOR TODAY ARE TIMING OF THE COLD FRONT AND THE
CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.

AN AREA OF RAIN AND THUNDERSTORMS THAT MOVED FROM NORTHERN MN INTO
NORTHWESTERN WI CONTINUES TO DIMINISH. WIDELY SCATTERED SHOWERS OR
SPRINKLES WERE LOCATED JUST TO THE WEST OF VILAS AND ONEIDA COUNTIES.
SOME LIGHT RAIN SHOULD EDGE ITS WAY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PORTION OF THE
CWA THRU THE MORNING HOURS. WILL ALSO HAVE TO MONITOR STORMS THAT ARE
DEVELOPING ACROSS CENTRAL MN AND EASTERN SD.

AT 06Z COLD FRONT ACROSS NORTHWESTERN MN WAS MOVING SLOWER THAT ALL THE
MODEL RUNS. NGM AND ETA HAD THE SLOWEST MOVEMENT ON THE FRONT AND 06Z
POSITION WAS CLOSEST TO THE NGM. MOISTURE CONVERGENCE APPEARS TO BE
LIMITED ON THE MODELS BUT WITH THE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND THE FRONT
APPROACHING THERE SHOULD BE A CHANCE OF MAINLY AFTERNOON SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. BOTH THE NGM AND ETA KEEP THE UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS NORTH
OF OUR AREA. THEREFORE EXPECT WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED SHOWERS
TODAY. NGM AND ETA DIFFER ONCE AGAIN ON THE QPF. BASED FORECAST ON THE
NGM WHICH IS SLOWER TO MOVE THE LIGHT QPF AREA OUT OF THE CWA. GUIDANCE
TEMPERATURES ARE ONCE AGAIN SIMILAR AND SEE NO REASON TO DISAGREE WITH
THEM. HAVE LOWERED TEMPERATURES A LITTLE IN THE NORTH SINCE THERE SHOULD
BE MORE CLOUDS OVER THAT AREA WITH THE AREA OF PRECIPITATION THAT IS
SLOWLY DIMINISHING.

MJS

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-142100-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
1200 PM CDT FRI AUG 14 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH CENTRAL WISCONSIN.

THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA
THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING HOURS...BUT THE STORMS SHOULD NOT
BECOME SEVERE.

FORECAST:
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED AHEAD OF A COLD FRONT THAT WILL
MOVE THROUGH THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING. HEAVY RAINS...
GUSTY WINDS AND SMALL HAIL ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

DISCUSSION:
A WEAK COLD FRONT WILL MOVE THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA TODAY. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS CAN BE EXPECTED IN MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR AHEAD OF THE
FRONT.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT ANTICIPATED.

PLEASE MONITOR THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST FOR ADDITIONAL UPDATES.

MG