Severe Thunderstorm Warning 1, NWS Green Bay, WI

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
745 AM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

12Z UPR AIR DATA CONTINUES TO SUPPORT THE THREAT OF SVR WX ACRS THE AREA
LATER TDA. 12Z TOP SOUNDING HAD LI OF -7 AND THE ATM IN THE CENTRAL US
HAS VERY STEEP MID-LVL LAPSE RATES. STG TSTMS WERE DEVELOPING ACRS IA
AND SE MN IN RGN OF STG ISENTROPIC LIFT. THIS APPEARS TO BE AT THE NOSE
OF THE LLJ...BUT N/S ORIENTATION OF THE STORMS ALSO SUGGESTS THAT THERE
MAY BE A WK SHRTWV MOVG THROUGH THAT AREA.

ISENTROPIC LIFT ACRS WI IS MUCH WEAKER ATTM...BUT IT WILL INCR LATER
TDA. SITN IS EVOLVING PRETTY MUCH AS EXPECTED...THOUGH ONSET OF SVR
THREAT ACRS CENTRAL WI MAY OCCUR A BIT EARLIER THAN EARLIER THOUGHT.
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JS

WIZ005-010>013-018>022-030-031-035>040-045-048>050-291800-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREEN BAY WI
600 AM CST SUN MAR 29 1998

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR NORTHEAST AND PARTS OF CENTRAL
AND NORTH-CENTRAL WISCONSIN...

THERE IS A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS CENTRAL
WISCONSIN THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT. ACROSS THE REST OF THE AREA...
THERE IS A SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO
TONIGHT. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE HAIL.

FORECAST:
SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TODAY.
THE THREAT OF SEVERE STORMS WILL BEGIN IN CENTRAL WISCONSIN DURING THE
AFTERNOON...AND THEN EXPAND NORTH AND EAST ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA DURING
THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EVENING HOURS. THE PRIMARY THREAT WILL BE LARGE
HAIL...BUT DAMAGING WINDS ARE ALSO POSSIBLE...ESPECIALLY LATER TONIGHT.

DISCUSSION:
A STRONG WARM FRONT WILL APPROACH WISCONSIN TODAY. AS THE FRONT NEARS
THE REGION...THE AIR WILL DESTABILIZE SUFFICIENTLY FOR THE DEVELOPMENT
OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS. THE MAIN SEVERE WEATHER THREAT WILL OCCUR WITH
THE STORMS AHEAD OF THE FRONT. THESE STORMS WILL BE DEVELOPING IN AN
ENVIRONMENT FAVORABLE FOR LARGE HAIL.

ADDITIONAL THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE WAKE OF THE WARM FRONT
LATER TONIGHT. ALTHOUGH THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT IN THE WAKE OF THE
WARM FRONT IS LESS CLEAR-CUT...THE MAIN THREAT FROM ANY STORMS THAT
DEVELOP IN THE WAKE OF THE FRONT WOULD LIKELY BE DAMAGING WINDS.

SPOTTER ACTIVATION:
SEVERE WEATHER SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NECESSARY...ESPECIALLY ACROSS
CENTRAL WISCONSIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON.

THIS OUTLOOK WILL BE UPDATED AT NOON. ADDITIONAL INFORMATION WILL ALSO
BE AVAILABLE IN THE SHORT-TERM FORECAST.

SKOWRONSKI