Severe Thunderstorm Warning 96, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT (342 PM CDT) MON JUN 29 1998

...PLENTY OF CHALLENGES WITH T-STORM CHANCES ESPECIALLY TONIGHT...

TROPICAL CONNECTION INTO REGION VISIBLE ON SATELLITE THIS AFTN. VERY
BOUYANT AIRMASS WITH SFC DEWPOINTS IN 60S BACK INTO FAR E COLORADO.
MODELS NOT QUITE AS WARM WITH TEMPS ALOFT COMPARED TO PREVIOUS RUNS
AND CAP ERODING PER ADAP. MODELS KEEP UPPER LVL JET OVER N NEBRASKA
INTO IOWA WITH NE PARTS OF GLD CWA FALLING UNDER FAVORABLE RR
QUADRANT THIS EVE. THETA-E RIDGE FCST TO EXTEND BACK INTO NW KANSAS
TIL 06Z SO STORMS COULD FIRE ALONG N AXIS WHERE CAPES CURRENTLY
RUNNING 3000-4500 J/KG. AS A MATTER OF FACT...SPC JUST ISSUED WATCH
FOR THIS AREA.

MODELS TAKE SFC BOUNDARY AND HIEST MSTR VALUES E OF CWA. HOWEVER...
MID LVL FRONT SLIDES THRU CWA WITH Q-VECTOR CONVERGENCE IN THE
700/500MB LAYER SPCLY OVER E. WL KEEP SMALL MENTION OF TSTMS
OVERNIGHT IN E ZONES BUT END ANY MENTION OUT W AS H7 RIDGE BUILDS AND
JET EXITS REGION. WITH HI DEWPOINTS AND ELY SFC WINDS...CANNOT RULE
OUT AREAS OF FOG LATER TONIGHT.

ETA/NGM DIFFER WRT TO STATE OF ATMOSPHERE TUESDAY AFTN/EVE. HINT OF A
SHORTWAVE IN WNW FLOW ALOFT BY TUESDAY EVE. NGM MUCH MORE UNSTABLE
AND MOIST OVER CWA. WITH ELY MOIST LOW LVL FLOW AND COOLER TEMPS
ALOFT...CANNOT RULE OUT TSTMS. HOWEVER...TIMING LOOKS TO BE CLOSER
TO 3RD PERIOD EVENT. WL INCLUDE LOW POPS ACROSS NW HALF TUE AFTN...
AND WL LET NEXT 2 SHIFTS TAKE A CLOSER LOOK FOR TUESDAY EVE/NGT.

REGARDLESS...LOOKS TO BE COOLER TUESDAY ACROSS FA THEN WAA PATTERN
BACK FOR WEDNESDAY. BARRING LOTS OF FOG OR STRATUS WEDNESDAY
MORNING...TEMPS SHOULD BE A BIT WARMER FOR WED. WL STAY CLOSE TO
MOS GUIDANCE TEMPS IN 1ST AND 3RD PERIODS.

.GLD...TORNADO WATCH UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT) FOR NEZ081 AND
       KSZ003>004-016.

KPL

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1014 AM MDT (1114 AM CDT) MON JUN 29 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED...MAINLY NORTH AND EAST OF A
HAIGLER NEBRASKA/COLBY KANSAS/QUINTER KANSAS LINE WHICH INCLUDES ALL
OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND NORTHERN PORTIONS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS.

SYNOPSIS: OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES EXIST THIS MORNING FROM THUNDERSTORMS
WHICH OCCURRED OVERNIGHT ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER. A SURFACE
LOW EXISTS JUST SOUTHEAST OF GOODLAND KANSAS WITH A STATIONARY FRONT
EXTENDING NORTHEAST OF THE SURFACE LOW TOWARDS MCCOOK NEBRASKA. AS A
MID LEVEL DISTURBANCE RIDES OVER THESE BOUNDARIES THIS EVENING...
WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE...MAINLY ALONG THE
KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER WILL
EXIST.

LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONTINUES TO POOL NORTH AND EAST OF THE SURFACE
LOW THIS MORNING. THIS MOISTURE WILL COMBINE WITH AFTERNOON HIGHS
AROUND THE CENTURY MARK TO CREATE AN UNSTABLE ATMOSPHERE. THE BEST
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR EXISTS ALONG THE KANSAS/NEBRASKA BORDER WHERE
THE BEST CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER IS EXPECTED WITH LARGE HAIL...
DAMAGING WINDS AND ISOLATED TORNADOES POSSIBLE. AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF
I-70 LOOK TO REMAIN CAPPED WITH WARM TEMPERATUES AT MID LEVELS...
HOWEVER AN ISOLATED STORM CANT BE RULED OUT.

MARTELLO

KSZ003-004-016-NEZ081-300340-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
242 PM MDT (342 PM CDT) MON JUN 29 1998

...A TORNADO WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA
AND NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING...

THE STORM PREDICTION CENTER IN NORMAN OKLAHOMA HAS ISSUED A TORNADO
WATCH FOR AREAS MAINLY EAST OF A LINE FROM MCCOOK TO OBERLIN TO HILL
CITY UNTIL 9 PM MDT (10 PM CDT).

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.
CONDITIONS ARE ALSO FAVORABLE FOR TORNADOES. FOR YOUR PROTECTION
MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR HOME OR
BUSINESS.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR LOCAL RADIO OR TV STATION
OR CABLE TELEVISION FOR LATER STATEMENTS OR WARNINGS CONCERNING THIS
SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

SKIPPER