Severe Thunderstorm Warning 2, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
110 PM MST (210 PM CST) THU MAR 26 1998

...PD 1 AND 2 POPS AND TEMPS ALL PDS ARE CONCERNS THIS FCST PCKG...

ETA/AVN STILL APPR TO HANDLE THE UPR LOW EJECTING OUT OF THE DESERT
SW THE BEST...WITH THE NGM A LTL TO FAST WITH THE TIMING OF THIS SYS
THRU OUR CWFA.

BIG QN TNGT IS HOW MUCH LLVL MOISTURE WILL RTN OVR THE CWFA WITH
STRENGTHENING LLVL JET TNGT.  IF ONE WERE TO BELIEVE THE ETA BL
DWPNT PROG THRU THIS EVE...DWPNTS ABV 50 DEG F WOULD BE RELEGATED TO
ERN TWO MOST COUNTIES OF OUR CWFA THRU MIDNIGHT...BEFORE THE SFC LOW
AND COLD FNT TRACKS EWRD ALNG THE KS/NE BDR.

WEST OF THE DVLPG DRY LN...THE ATMOSPHERE IS VERY CAPPED AS INDCD BY
ADAP CAP STRENGTH PRODUCT.  LASTLY...Q-VEC CNVRG THIS EVE OVR OUR
AREA APPRS TO RPDLY GET REPLACED BY STRONG Q-VEC DVRG LT TNGT AS MID
LVL DRY SLOT MOVES NE INTO THE SERN COUNTIES OF OUR AREA. THE BOTTOM
LN IS THAT ALL OF THESE FACTORS DO NOT SEEM TO COME TOGETHER VERY
WELL FOR WIDESPREAD CNVTN TNGT...SO WILL GO WITH 20 PCT POPS MOST
PLACES.  ONLY NW COUNTIES HV HIER POPS TNGT INTO FRI AS MORE UPSLP
WNDS PROVIDE MORE FAVORABLE LFT.  IF TSTMS DO FIRE...CAPES OF 1500
TO 2000 OVR ER COUNTIES SUGGEST A FEW STORMS COULD REACH SEVERE
LIMITS.

WITH THE SYS EXITING OUR AREA BY FRI AFT...FEEL ANY SHWRS AND TSTMS
SHOULD MOVE E OF OUR AREA BY MID AFT WITH MANY AREAS EXPERIENCING
PARTIAL CLRG BY THIS TM.  WNDS SHIFTING BACK TO THE SE LT FRI NGT
MAY ALLOW SOME LOW CLDS AND PATCHY FOG TO DVLP BY SAT MORN...BUT DO
NOT THINK IT WILL LAST MUCH BEYOND MIDDAY SAT AS WNDS SHIFT S.

TEMPS COULD BE TRICKY TNGT DEPENDING ON ACTUAL WND SPD AND CLD
CVR...BUT FOR NOW...FEEL FWC LOWS TNGT MAY BE TOO LOW.  FCST HIGHS
ON FRI MAY BE A TAD LOW ON FRI TOO...GVN H85 TEMPS OF +10 TO +15 DEG
C PROGGED FOR FRI EVE WITH DOWNSLOPING NW SFC WNDS AND SOME SUN.
OTRW...PDS 3 AND 4 TEMPS LOOK RSNBLE.  NEXT MAJ ROCKY MOUNTAIN H5
TROF WILL LKLY AFFECT OUR AREA ON SUN INTO MON WITH SHWRS...TSTMS
AND WNDS. OVERALL FCST CONFIDENCE WITH THIS PCKG IS AVG.

.GLD...NONE.

VJN

KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-270740-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
542 PM MST (642 PM CST) THU MAR 26 1998

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CST (MIDNIGHT
CST) FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEGINS AT 7 PM CST (6 PM MST) AND
COVERS THAT AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE AND ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GOODLAND TO HILL CITY.

AT 540 PM MST (640 PM CST) GOODLAND RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERB YUMA COUNTY...WITH OTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF TRIBUNE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS.

ENTWISTLE

KSZ001>004-013>016-NEZ079>081-270740-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT...CORRECTED TYPOS
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
554 PM MST (654 PM CST) THU MAR 26 1998

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 1 AM CST (MIDNIGHT
MST) FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST NEBRASKA AND PARTS OF NORTHWEST KANSAS...

THIS SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH BEGINS AT 7 PM CST (6 PM MST) AND
COVERS THAT AREA EAST OF THE COLORADO STATE LINE AND ALONG AND NORTH
OF A LINE FROM GOODLAND TO HILL CITY.

AT 540 PM MST (640 PM CST) GOODLAND RADAR SHOWED THUNDERSTORMS
DEVELOPING IN CENTRAL AND NORTHERN YUMA COUNTY...WITH OTHER STORMS
DEVELOPING ABOUT 50 MILES WEST OF TRIBUNE.  THE STORMS ARE EXPECTED
TO MOVE QUICKLY NORTHEAST AT 40 MPH.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  FOR YOUR
PROTECTION MOVE TO AN INTERIOR ROOM ON THE LOWEST FLOOR OF YOUR
HOME OR BUSINESS.

ENTWISTLE