Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
235 PM MDT (335 PM CDT) SUN SEP 13 1998

...FORECAST PROBLEMS WL BE CHC OF PCPN THRU 3RD PD FOLLOWED BY TEMPS
THRU THE PD...

BASED ON INITAIL ANALYSIS...CURRENT TRENDS SEEN ON SATL/WSR-88D...WL
PREFER THE ETA OVERALL WITH SOME AVN THROWN IN HERE AND THERE. SATL
...LGT DETECTION...GLD WSR-88D...SHOWING TSRA DVLP IN SW TO NE LINE
ALG AND OVR NWRN PTN CWA. THIS DUE TO DESTABILIZATION AND LIFT
PROVIDED BY UPR LOW NOW OVR SE WY. NGM AND AVN NOT HANDLING THIS
SYSTEM VERY WELL. BOTH THOSE MODELS WHAT TO SHEAR OUT MAIN SYSTEM TO
THE E AND NE.

HWVR...HEIGHT FALL ANALYSIS SHOWS A MORE SELY TRACK. ETA IS DOING
BEST ON THIS FEATURE...AND IS ALSO THE STRONGEST OF THE THREE. BASED
ON SATL/UPR AIR ANALYSIS AND WHAT IS GOING ON NOW...THINK ETA IS ON
TRACK. ONE PROBLEM WITH THE ETA THOUGH...ALG WITH NGM...TOO DRY AND
WL THROW IN AVN MSTR ON THIS. ETA BRINGS MOD TO STG MSTR CONV ALG
WITH 7-5 OMEGA ACROSS CWA DURG THE NIGHT. THE OTHER TWO ARE SEVERELY
LACKING. AMS IS UNSTABLE DUE TO THE COLD AIR ALOFT...AND WL RESPOND
WELL TO DYNAMICS. SO WL HAVE CHC TO LIKELY POPS TONIGHT BASED ON ABV.

LINGERING DYNAMICS OVR CWA IN THE MRNG. ALSO LAPSE RATES REMAIN HIGH
WITH MSTR STILL ARND. WHATEVER CLRG WE GET...IT WL CLD BACK AND GET
INSTABILITY...SLGT CHC TO CHC...SHRA INTO THE ELY EVENG. BASED ON
CLD COVER...UPSLOPE...CAA...WL FOLLOW ETA AS WELL...AND GO BLO NGM
MOS ON MAXES BOTH PDS. CANNOT SEE WHY GUIDANCE WARMS UP ON TUE WITH A
2ND SURGE LOOKG LIKE IT WL COME IN MON NGT TUE.

MINS WL BE TRICKY...AND WL DEPEND ON CLD COVER. FIGURING PCPN TON
AND CAA AND AND NOT THAT STG OF WNDS TON...WL GO BLO NGM MOS. WL CLR
OUT INITAILLY MON NGT THEN UPSLOPE INCREASES BY LATE IN THE NIGHT AS
INDICATED BY BLYR MSTR PROGS. RIGHT NOW AM FIGURING WL HAVE A FAIRLY
DRY AMS...AND CLDS WL NOT COME IN RIGHT AWAY...AND WL GO SLIGHTLY
BLO NGM MOS. LOOKS TO BE A RATHER COOL NIGHT ON MON NIGHT.

.GLD...NONE

BULLER