Flash Flood Warning 16, NWS Goodland, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
251 PM MDT (351 PM CDT) WED JUL 29 1998

FORECAST PROBLEMS WL BE CHC AND AMOUNT OF PCPN THRU THE PD. AM
RUNNING BEHIND DUE TO FRUITFALL PHONE COORDINATION. COORD WAS WITH
DDC AND HSI. HAVE RCVD ISOLATED VERY HEAVY RNFL AMOUNTS IN NE PTN OF
CWA THIS AFTN. SINCE HVY AMOUNTS ISOLD IN NATURE AND HAVE BEEN DRY
FOR A FEW DAYS...WL OPT TO NOT ISSUE A FFA ATTM...AND JUST PUT IN
LOCALLY HEAVY RNFL. WL UNDOUBTEDLY RECEIVE HVY RNFL BUT DO NOT FEEL
CONFIDENT ABT EXACT AREA OF CONCERN. NE PTN CWA WL BE ON TOP OF
LIST. WL TELL EVENING SHIFT TO MONITOR VERY CLOSELY.

MODELS NOT CATCHING EVERYTHING. NRN FRONTAL BNDRY HAS SAGGED OVR NRN
FRINGE OF CWA. THAT BNDRY PLUS SHEAR AXIS/SMALL VORT PUSHING IN FM
THE SW. GLD WSR-88D AND SFC OBS SHOWG ADDITIONAL DVLPMENT TO THE S
AND SW OF GLD...AND A LINE FROM NRN FRONT RANGE OF CO INTO EXTRM SW
PTN OF NE PNHANDLE. DVLPMENT CLOSE TO GLD IS PROBABLY DUE TO SRN
FRONTAL BNDRY THAT HAS BEEN PULLED NORTH DUE TO APRCHG STRONG S/W
FROM THE WEST.

ETA/NGM BLEND APPEARS TO BEST HANDLE THE SITN. NGM DOES BETTER AT
THE SFC AND INITD BEST WITH ETA DOING BETTER ON THE THERMAL FEATURES
AND MSTR FM 700 MB DOWN WHICH WAS COOLER AND MORE MOIST. NGM DID A
LTL BETTER WITH S/W FEATURES AND ETA WITH THE JET. AM CONCERNCED
TONIGHT THAT MODELS ARE NOT STRONG ENUF WITH APRCHG S/W AND SFC
BNDRY FM THE NW PER SATL AND SFC OBSERVATIONS. BLV LIFT WL BE
STRONGER TONIGHT THAN WHAT MODELS INDICATE.

BASICALLY WL GO WETTER THAN NGM MOS AND CLOSER TO FAN GUIDANCE THRU
PD...ESPECIALLY FOR THE NIGHTTIME HOURS. THIS WL BE DIURNALLY TRENDED
THRU FRI DUE TO LESS DYNAMICS DURG THE DAY THEN PCPN PICKING UP LATE
IN THE AFTERNOON WITH INCREASED DYNAMICS...MSTR CONVERGENCE...AND
WHATEVER HEATING TAKES PLACE. NGM DID NOT DO WELL IN A SMLR PCPN
SCENARIO LAST WEEK. ALL THIS MEANS UPSLOPE FLOW...CLDY SKIES...AREAS
OF FOG...MAX TEMPS COOLER THAN THE NGM MOS MAXES...AND MINS WARMER
THAN NGM MOS THRU THE PD.

.GLD...NONE.

BULLER

COZ090>092-KSZ001>004-013>016-027>029-041-042-NEZ079>081-300600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GOODLAND KS
1021 AM MDT (1121 AM CDT) WED JUL 29 1998

THIS OUTLOOK PERTAINS TO THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES

CHEYENNE CO   CHEYENNE KS   DECATUR KS     DUNDY NE        GOVE KS
GRAHAM KS     GREELEY KS    HITCHCOCK NE   KIT CARSON CO   LOGAN KS
NORTON KS     RAWLINS KS    RED WILLOW NE  SHERIDAN KS     SHERMAN KS
THOMAS KS     WALLACE KS    WICHITA KS     YUMA CO

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED.

SYNOPSIS:
AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL PASS OVER THE TRI-STATE AREA THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THIS DISTURBANCE WILL INTERACT WITH
VERY MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIRMASS NORTH OF A WARM FRONT THAT WILL BE
LIFTING NORTHWARD INTO WESTERN KANSAS. ANOTHER FOCUS WILL BE A NEARLY
STATIONARY FRONT CURRENTLY DRAPED OVER NORTHERN KANSAS INTO
NORTHEAST COLORADO. SCATTERED STRONG AND POSSIBLY SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP BY MID AFTERNOON. MOVEMENT WILL BE EAST
AT 10 TO 15 MPH.

THE STORMS WILL BE CAPABLE OF PRODUCING HAIL TO 1 INCH IN DIAMETER
AND VERY HEAVY RAIN THAT COULD PRODUCE LOCALIZED FLOODING.

STAVISH