Severe Thunderstorm Warning 99, NWS Hastings, NE

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
225 PM CDT THU MAY 28 1998

...THREAT OF THUNDERSTORMS MAIN CHALLENGE THIS PACKAGE..

18Z SFC CHART SHOWED FRONT STILL ORIENTED NE-SW FROM YKN-HDE-HLC
WITH LITTLE MOVEMENT FROM 12Z.  DEW POINTS HAVE INCREASED INTO LOW
70S OVER EAST CENTRAL NEBRASKA AND ADAP NOW SHOWING CAP BLO 3
DEGREES THERE.  PCCAPE SHOWS VALUES AROUND 3000J/KG.  ASIDE FROM SFC
BNDRY DIFFICULT TO FIND MECHANISM TO TRIGGER CONVECTION.  250MB JET
HAS RETREATED NWD TO CANADIAN BORDER.  HARD TO FIND ANY WAVE NEARBY
ON WV IMGRY OR PROFILERS WITH EXCEPTION OF WEAK H7 WAVE IN SW FLOW
BTWN GRANADA AND MCCOOK.  SLOW DRIFT OF WAVE WILL TAKE SEVERAL MORE
HOURS BEFORE IT REACHES PRIMED AIR WITH LESS CAP.

ALL IN ALL WILL GO WITH HIGHEST POPS OVER NORTHERN AND EASTERN
SECTIONS FOR TONIGHT.  APPEARS THAT MORE ENERGY WILL EJECT OUT OF
WRN US TROUGH WITH ATMOSPHERE RECHARGING FOR LATE FRIDAY AND FRI NGT.
MODELS TRY TO ORIENT FRONT E/W BY THAT TIME PROVIDING BETTER SHEAR
TO THE NORTH OF IT FOR SEVERE WX AND CREATING MORE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR HEAVY RAIN AS WELL.

NOT GOING TO FUSS OVER GUIDANCE TEMPS A WHOLE LOT...LEANING MORE
TOWARD WARMER FWC NUMBERS THROUGHOUT.

GRI BB 061/086/061/088 344

KD