Severe Thunderstorm Warning 208, NWS Hastings, NE

CENTRAL NEBRASKA/NORTH CENTRAL KANSAS FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HASTINGS NE
247 PM CDT MON JUL 6 1998

...MAIN CHALLENGE IS TIMING/LOCATION OF THUNDERSTORMS...

IN PAST 30 MINUTES THUNDERSTORMS HAVE FIRED OVER N CENTRAL NEBRASKA
ALONG AND NEAR FRONT WHICH EXTENDS FROM SURFACE LOW 40 N LBF EAST TO
BETWEEN ONL AND ANW...THEN TO NEAR OFK.  SURFACE TROF/COOL FRONT
EXTENDS FROM LOW SW TO NEAR GLD.  GRI DEWPOINT STILL 77 WITH MID 70S
OVER REST OF CWA.  AWIPS LAPS DATA SHOWS CAPES UP TO 5800 J/KG WITH MAX
FROM OKX-LXN...AND CIN NEARLY DOWN TO ZERO OVER WRN HALF OF STATE.

MODELS SIMILAR WITH QPF THROUGH 36 HOURS...AND ALL AGREE ON A HEAVY
RAIN EVENT FOR THE NE HALF OF CWA OVERNIGHT.  NOT SURPRISING GIVEN SUCH
HIGH PRECIPITAL WATER VALUES...OVER 2 INCHES IN NE NEBRASKA.  THE
PROPAGATION COMPONENT OF THE CORFIDI VECTORS IS RATHER WEAK WITH LACK
OF LOW LEVEL JET...THUS WITH THE MEAN THICKNESS AND WIND PATTERNS
GENERALLY FROM W TO E TONIGHT EXPECT MUCH OF THE NRN DEVELOPMENT TO
STAY N OF I-80.  AS FRONTAL BOUNDARY SLOWLY DROPS S OVERNIGHT AND
SHORTWAVE PULLS OUT OF HIGH PLAINS...COULD EASILY SEE A TRAINING OF
STORMS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY...PRODUCING VERY HEAVY RAINS OVER NE CWA
COUNTIES AND INTO OMA CWA.

WILL COVER ALL OF CWA WITH POPS TONIGHT WITH ADDITIONAL DEVELOPMENT
OVER SW NEBRASKA.  LIGHTNING DATA ALREADY SHOWING INCREASED DEVELOPMENT
OVER NW KS ON SRN EDGE OF SURFACE TROF.

THEN TUE NT THE FRONT SHOULD HANG UP NEAR KS/NE BORDER AND WILL AGAIN
MENTION POPS WITH THIS FEATURE.

HIGHS TUE AND WED SHOULD BE A BIT COOLER THAN TODAYS ESPECIALLY ON N
SIDE OF FRONT...AND POSSIBLE LINGERING MORNING SHOWERS. COMPROMISE OF
FAN/FWC USED BUT BOTH WERE SIMILAR.

GRI BB 071/092/067/089/065 432

NIETFELD