Severe Thunderstorm Warning 38, NWS Flagstaff, AZ

NORTHERN ARIZONA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FLAGSTAFF AZ
200 PM MST WED AUG 12 1998

SYNOPSIS...A UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE CENTER OVER NEVADA WILL SLOWLY
SHIFT SOUTHEAST THE NEXT COUPLE DAYS. MONSOON MOISTURE IS EXPECTED TO
REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS NORTHERN ARIZONA FOR CONTINUED DAYTIME
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT.

DISCUSSION...LESS THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY TODAY DUE TO RELATIVELY COOL
SURFACE CONDITIONS FROM CLOUDINESS EARLIER. 500MB FLOW IS A BIT MORE
COHERENT TODAY WITH HIGH CENTER OVER NEVADA PRODUCING NORTHEAST
STEERING WINDS FOR THE THUNDERSTORM MOVEMENT. CHECK OF 12Z MODELS
SHOWS USUAL MUDDLED INITIALIZATION OF ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE. NGM/ETA
DO INDICATE AN INCREASE IN MID LEVEL RH AS FLOW BECOMES EASTERLY TO
SOUTHEASTERLY AS HIGH SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST. BIT OF DISCREPANCY IN
THE MODELS WHERE HIGH CENTER WILL END UP BY THIS WEEKEND. BUT
REGARDLESS...MOISTURE ISN'T GOING ANYWHERE...SO WILL CONTINUE LOW TO
MEDIUM GRA`DE MONSOON FORECAST. FLG252 INW232 ...SIGLER

FLG...NONE.

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