Severe Thunderstorm Warning 86, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
250 PM CDT WED JUN 24 1998

FORECAST CONCERN TONIGHT WILL BE TSRA CHANCES/COVERAGE AND STRENGTH.
PRIMARY FOCUS FOR SVR TSRA TONIGHT WILL BE SOUTH OF CWFA WHERE LLJET...
NOSE OF UPPER JET...MID LEVEL SHORTWAVE...STRONG MOIST CONVERGENCE AND
INSTABILITY MAX ALONG WARM FRONT COME TOGETHER IN MDT RISK AREA. NOT AS
CLEAR CUT OVR LCL FA. NORTHWARD LIFTING SHORT WAVE INTO SOUTHERN CANADA
HAS LEFT COOLER H5 TEMPS OVR REGION AND FROM ETA PROG S PTN OF FA IN
REGION OF FAIRLY STEEP MID LEVEL LAPSE RATES. H8 WAA PROGGED TO CONTINUE
MAXIMIZED OVR NW MN. BOUNDARY LAYER MOIST CONVERGENCE GRADUALLY
INCREASES ACROSS REGION THROUGH 06Z WITH H8 THETA E RIDGE OVR
CENTRAL/EASTERN ND WHICH WEAKENS LATE IN THE PERIOD. ON THE SFC LOW
LEVEL MOIST AVAILABLE WITH SFC DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WITH
PLENTY OF SUN ACROSS THE SOUTH AIRMASS HAS DESTABILIZED WITH ADAP LIS
FROM -4 TO -8 FROM NORTH TO SOUTH. PROGGED ETA SOUNDING FOR FAR
INDICATING CAPES IN EXCESS OF 3000J/KG WITH PROGGED LI OF -11. SO MOIST
AND INSTABILITY NOT MUCH OF PROBLEM. AS FAR AS LIFT. NO STRONG
BOUNDARIES PRESENT. WK TROF ANALYZED THROUGH CENTRAL ND WITH A WK
THERMAL BOUNDARY ACROSS N MN. BOTH KMVX-88D AND VIS 2 LOOP INDICATED A
WELL DEFINED WESTWARD MOVING OUTFLOW BOUNDARY WHICH APPEARS TO BE
INTERACTING WITH WEAK TROF OVR CENTRAL/EASTERN ND. OTHER WK OUTFLOWS
HAVE BEEN NOTED FROM THE 88D. SO ANY ONE OF THESE COULD BE FOCUS FOR
LOW LEVEL LIFT. ALSO OVR NW MN ADAP INDICATING SOME SPEED CONVERGENCE
WITH A TONGUE OF 70 DEGREE DEWPOINTS AS FAR N AS DTL. AS A RESULT
THOUGH SFC FEATURES SOMEWHAT WEAK SCT CONVECTION COULD GO ALMOST
ANYWHERE. PWAT PROGGED TO DECREASE SOMEWHAT TO AROUND AN INCH. WITH
RECENT RAINS STRONGER CELL MAY CONTINUE TO POSE FLOODING PROBLEMS AND
WILL NEED TO BE MONITORED CLOSELY. WITH WAA AND CURRENT DEW POINTS MOS
TEMPS SEEM REASONABLE. PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.
FOR DVL...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH WIDELY SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...A FEW
POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS EVENING. LOW AROUND 60. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
GFK...SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS
EVENING. LOW 60 TO 65. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
FAR..SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING...A FEW POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS
EVENING. LOW 60 TO 65. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
MN4-9>13-17>22-24
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME POSSIBLY
SEVERE THIS EVENING. LOW 60 TO 65. SOUTH WIND 5 TO 15 MPH.
MN27-32>40
.TONIGHT...PARTLY CLOUDY WITH A GOOD CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS...SOME
POSSIBLY SEVERE THIS EVENING. LOW IN THE MID TO UPPER 60S. WIND SOUTH
10 TO 20 MPH.
VOELKER