Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Grand Forks, ND

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS ND
253 AM CDT MON JUL 20 1998

1ST PERIOD DISCUSSION...TSRA/SVR CHANCES FCST ISSUE TDY. CURRENTLY
WATCHING TSRA SLIDING E ACRSS SCNTRL ND W SUM MORE ACTION FIRING UP IN
SWRN ND. EARLIER MCS ACRSS NRN SD HAS WEAKENED...W STRNGR ACTVTY NOW
FRTHR SW TWRD RPD. TSRA FIRING UP ALONG BEST SFC MOIST CNVRGNCE AXIS IN
VCNTY OF WMFNT NOW ANALYZED ALONG ND/SD BDR AS WELL AS AREA OF
THETA-ADVCTN.

QSTNS FOR TDY INCLUDE HOW MUCH AM CVNCTN OCCURS IN CWA AND HOW THIS MAY
IMPACT CHANCES LTR TDY W STRNGR CDFNT AND U/L S/W. BELIV NGM HAS BETTER
HANDLE ON CURRENT SITUATION AS ETA HAS JUST NOW CAUGHT UP IN TIMING OF
FEATURES. ALSO NGM HAS DONE WELL OF LATE W THIS TYPE OF SYSTEM AND HIT
ON QPF BETTER W SVRL RNDS OF AM CNVCTN.

STRNG S/W IN WRN SASK SHUD RACE TO CNTRL ND BY 00Z W VORT MAX TO
MAN/SASK BDR BRINGING SUM PVA TO XTRM N AND NE ZONES LATE. NGM ALRDY
HAS SUM UVM SRN CWA BY 12Z AND FOLLOW W GUD DRY PUNCH TO ALL OF ND BY
00Z BHND FNT. THE H85 FNT SHUD BE JUST W OF MOT AT 12Z W +25C TO NR BIS
W STRNG CVRGNCE PROGGED ALONG IT. STRONGEST SSW FLO AT H85 SHUD BE MN
CWA BY MID AFTN W GFK-DVL ALRDY IN CAA. SFC FNT MOVEMENTS NOW SIMILAR
ON BOTH MODELS W NGM JUST A HAIR FASTER...ALTHO ETA DVLPS LO PRES IN SD
AND NGM HOLDS ON TO STRNGR NRN SYSTSM. LUKNG AT CURRENTS...AGAIN
WUD FOLLOW NGM AS LOWEST PRES NOW IN ERN SASK W STRONG PRESS FALLS JUST
TO THE E AND BEST U/L FORING AND JET SHUD HELP DVLP LO PRES FRTHR N
THAN ETA SUGGESTS. BELIV NOT ENUF TIME BHND WMFNT AND AHEAD OF CDFNT
FOR MUCH OF ND SIDE TO GO SVR THIS AFTN...BUT MN CWA HAS BETTER CHANCE.

OVERALL BELIV GUD CHANCE OF AM CNVCTN DVL E AND SE TO SRN ND ZONES AND
THEN BRF SHOT RRV ALONG FNT ARND 18Z W ACTION THEN SHIFTING INTO NW MN
EARY AFTN AND WCNTRL MID/LATE AFTN THRU ERY EVE. BASE THIS ON H85
THETA-RIDGE SLIDING FROM CNTRL/ERN SD AT 12Z AND THEN POKING UP TO GFK
ARND 18 W 344 VALUE AND THEN SLIDING ESE INTO WCNTRL MN. ALSO K INDICES
JUMP TO ARND 32 AAT RRV BY 12Z AND THEN A SKINNY LINE OF 34-36 VALUES
RIDES THRU ERN VALLEY BY 18Z AND INCREASES TO ARND 40 LAKES CNTRY ARND
22Z. ALSO LUKS LIKE H85 FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING WKNS AFTR 12Z AS WMFNT
LIFTS NE JUST AHEAD OF CDFNT...HOWEVER APPEARS STRONG ENUF TO BRING SUM
ELEVATED CNVCTN TWRD 12Z ESP SW ZONES AS 850-500 VVELS HUGE ALONG W
LI/S DROPPING TO -2 TO -4 W PWATS 1.4. CAPES INCRSE TO NR 1000 XTRM SW
CWA BY 12Z AND THEN TONGUE OF NR 2000 CAPES SLIDE INTO RRV ARND 18Z AND
THEN HEAD E/SE LATER AFTN. WBZ IN FAVORABLE RANGE ALTHO HELICITY NOT
ALL THAT IMPRESSIVE SO BELIV HAIL MAIN THREAT THIS ERY AFTN...THEN
PSBLY WINDS IN XTRM SE CWA BY EVE. NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT CAP W H7 TEMPS
PROGGED ONLY ARND 10C THIS AFTN. TIME SCTNS ON BOTH MODELS INDICATE
BEST WAA ND SIDE 12Z-18Z AND W 70+ DEW PTS NOW AS CLOSE AS MBG COUNTING
ON ACTION TWRD 12Z ND CWA. STRNG U/L DIVRGNCE ALSO PROGGED SW CWA AND W
ADVCTN OF HIER SFC MXNG RATIOS ONGOING AND INSTABILITY AXIS MOVING N.

W SUCH STRONG U/L SYSTM AND GUD SFC FEATURES BELIV SVR STILL A
THREAT...BUT MAINLY THIS AFTN AND MN SIDE DUE TO TIMING OF FNT SO WL
LEAVE OUT OF ND SUGGESTIONS. WL AGAIN HEDGE TWRD FWC TEMPS INSTEAD OF
FAN AND BELIV HIEST READINGS SE ZONES. FOLLOWING ARE FORECAST
SUGGESTIONS ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS FOUND IN BISZFPND AND MSPZFPMN:

ND: SAW WORKZONES - ONLY SUGGESTIONS.
DVL: WUD RESTRICT TSRA TO MAINLY AM.
FAR/GFK: TUFF TO TIME RNDS OF TSRA SO LUKS OK TO ME.

MN: HCO/ROX/BDE/TVF/BJI: PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS...MAINLY THIS AFTERNOON...SOME COULD BE SEVERE. HIGH IN
THE UPPER 80S. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

FFM/DTL/PKD: PARTLY SUNNY WITH SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...SOME COULD BE
SEVERE THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH NEARA 90. SOUTH WIND 10 TO 20 MPH.

SOROKA

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
647 AM CDT MON JUL 20 1998

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
REST OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

A WARMFRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMFRONT LIFTS NORTH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ON AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND EAST TO SOUTH OF BEMIDJI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NOON...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKES COUNTRY DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO VIOLENTLY LIFT
THIS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR. THEREFORE...ONCE THE STORMS REACH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE LAKES COUNTRY THEY
MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
IN THAT PART OF THE AREA.

WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AROUND NOON...THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BAUDETTE...FOSSTON AND WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE. THE BEST TIME FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SOROKA

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
647 AM CDT MON JUL 20 1998

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
REST OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

A WARMFRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMFRONT LIFTS NORTH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ON AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND EAST TO SOUTH OF BEMIDJI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NOON...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKES COUNTRY DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO VIOLENTLY LIFT
THIS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR. THEREFORE...ONCE THE STORMS REACH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE LAKES COUNTRY THEY
MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
IN THAT PART OF THE AREA.

WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AROUND NOON...THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BAUDETTE...FOSSTON AND WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE. THE BEST TIME FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO$ NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SOROKA

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-181200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
647 AM CDT MON JUL 20 1998

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
REST OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

A WARMFRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMFRONT LIFTS NORTH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ON AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND EAST TO SOUTH OF BEMIDJI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.

AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NOON...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKES COUNTRY DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO VIOLENTLY LIFT
THIS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR. THEREFORE...ONCE THE STORMS REACH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE LAKES COUNTRY THEY
MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
IN THAT PART OF THE AREA.

WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AROUND NOON...THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BAUDETTE...FOSSTON AND WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE. THE BEST TIME FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SOROKA

MNZ001>009-013>017-022>024-027>032-040-NDZ006>008-014>016-024-
026>030-038-039-049-052-053-211200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EASTERN ND/GRAND FORKS
647 AM CDT MON JUL 20 1998

...MODERATE RISK FOR SEVERE WEATHER TODAY ACROSS EXTREME EASTERN
SECTIONS OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

...SLIGHT RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER ACROSS EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA AND THE
REST OF NORTHWEST AND WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA...

A WARMFRONT WILL LIFT NORTHEAST THROUGH EASTERN NORTH DAKOTA TOWARD
NORTHWEST MINNESOTA LATE THIS MORNING...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A FAST MOVING
COLD FRONT THIS AFTERNOON. AS THE WARMFRONT LIFTS NORTH...SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS MORNING ON AN EAST-WEST LINE FROM
MAINLY SOUTH OF GRAND FORKS AND EAST TO SOUTH OF BEMIDJI. SOME OF THESE
STORMS MAY CONTAIN BRIEF HEAVY DOWNPOURS...BUT ARE NOT EXPECTED TO
BECOME SEVERE.
AS THE COLD FRONT APPROACHES THE RED RIVER VALLEY TOWARDS NOON...A MORE
ORGANIZED LINE OF THUNDERSTORMS IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP. THESE STORMS
WILL THEN MOVE EAST INTO NORTHWEST MINNESOTA DURING THE EARLY
AFTERNOON...AND SLIDE EAST SOUTHEAST TOWARD THE LAKES COUNTRY DURING
THE MID AND LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BE ABLE TO
DESTABILIZE FURTHER ACROSS THE EASTERN AREAS BEHIND THE WARM FRONT AND
AHEAD OF THE COLD FRONT WITH INCREASED SUNSHINE INTO EARLY AFTERNOON AS
SURFACE DEW POINTS APPROACH 70 DEGREES. THE STRONG NATURE OF THE COLD
FRONT AND UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN BE ABLE TO VIOLENTLY LIFT
THIS VERY WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR. THEREFORE...ONCE THE STORMS REACH THE
EASTERN SECTIONS OF WEST-CENTRAL MINNESOTA AND THE LAKES COUNTRY THEY
MAY QUICKLY BECOME SEVERE AND A MODERATE RISK OF SEVERE WEATHER EXISTS
IN THAT PART OF THE AREA.

WHILE AN ISOLATED SEVERE STORM CANNOT BE RULED OUT EVEN ACROSS EASTERN
NORTH DAKOTA AS THE FRONT APPROACHES AROUND NOON...THE FAVORED AREA FOR
SEVERE STORMS THIS AFTERNOON WILL BE SOUTH AND EAST OF A LINE FROM
BAUDETTE...FOSSTON AND WAHPETON/BRECKENRIDGE. THE BEST TIME FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 2 AND 8 PM WITH LARGE
HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS THE MAIN THREAT ALTHOUGH AN ISOLATED TORNADO IS
POSSIBLE.

PLEASE STAY TUNED TO$ NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR YOUR FAVORITE SOURCE OF
WEATHER INFORMATION FOR FUTURE UPDATES AND POSSIBLE WATCHES AND
WARNINGS IN REGARDS TO THIS POTENTIALLY DANGEROUS WEATHER SITUATION.

SOROKA