Severe Thunderstorm Warning 232, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
258 AM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

MAIN FORECAST CONCERNS THIS PACKAGE ARE WITH RISK OF SEVERE TODAY
AND CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION ON MONDAY.

REGARDING TODAY...PREFER ETA WHEN COMPARING SATELLITE TO 06Z
DEPICTION OF UPPER JET AND TROUGH.  THE ETA IS ODD MODEL OUT WITH
THE FASTEST MOVEMENT OF SHORTWAVE...BUT SEEMS REASONABLE GIVEN
STRENGTH OF JET CURRENTLY ROUNDING BOTTOM OF UPPER TROUGH. EXIT
REGION OF JET POINTED AT WESTERN MISSOURI BY 00Z WITH GOOD DIFLUENCE
ALOFT SETTING UP ACROSS FORECAST AREA. SURFACE LOW IN SOUTHEAST
COLORADO SHOULD QUICKLY EJECT NORTHEAST TODAY INTO NEBRASKA BY 00Z
WITH 50 KT LOW LEVEL JET ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS AND WEST MISSOURI.
SURFACE WARM FRONT LIFTING NORTH WILL BE PULLED UP INTO FORECAST
AREA WITH PRECIPITATION EXPECTED ALONG AND TO ITS NORTH. THEN DRY
LINE RAPIDLY PUSHING THROUGH CENTRAL KANSAS SHOULD HAVE THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPING ALONG IT THIS AFTERNOON WHICH WOULD ARRIVE INTO WESTERN
PORTIONS OF FORECAST AREA BY EARLY THIS EVENING. BETTER RISK OF
SEVERE WILL BE WITH THESE STORMS AS WIND PROFILE BECOMES MORE
FAVORABLE. BIG QUESTION OF HOW FAR NORTH THE WARM FRONT TRAVELS
TODAY...HOW MUCH CLEARING AND HEATING CAN TAKE PLACE THIS
AFTERNOON...AND HOW UNSTABLE WE WILL BE BY EARLY EVENING AS COOLING
ALOFT IS LAGGING.  WILL MENTION THE POSSIBILITY OF SEVERE IN AREA
SPC OUTLINES A MODERATE RISK. ONE THING FOR SURE...ANY STORMS THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING WILL BE MOVING PRETTY FAST.

PRECIPITATION RAPIDLY PUSHED EAST TONIGHT...WITH DRIER AIR PUNCHING
IN TO NORTHWEST MISSOURI. FOR DAY ON MONDAY...ALL BUT SOUTHERN AND
EASTERN FRINGES ON FORECAST AREA SHOWING A PRETTY STRONG CAP WITH
DRYING BELOW 700 MB.  THUS WILL PULL POPS FROM MOST AREAS.

FWC APPEARS TO HAVE BETTER HANDLE ON TEMPS TODAY THAN THE FAN.

.EAX...
KS...NONE.
MO...NONE.

PC

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

...GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST: CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
PROBABLE WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION: AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH
AT MID-DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT AT NOON...LOCATED
FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...
SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE LINES OF STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RATHER HIGH INTO TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AT
ALL LEVELS ...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A DISTINCT THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTING TO REPEAT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ON THE RISE.

POLSTON

KSZ025-057-060-102>105-MOZ001>008-011>017-020>025-028>033-037>040-
043>046-053-054-051200-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PLEASANT HILL/KANSAS CITY MO
100 PM CDT SUN OCT 4 1998

...GOOD CHANCE FOR SEVERE WEATHER THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT...

FORECAST: CLUSTERS OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE ACROSS EASTERN KANSAS
AND WESTERN MISSOURI THIS AFTERNOON...WITH ANOTHER ROUND OR TWO OF
POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT SEVERE WEATHER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING. TORNADOES...LARGE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL ALL BE
POSSIBLE. IN ADDITION TO THE SEVERE WEATHER THREAT...THERE WILL
LIKELY BE HEAVY RAINS FROM THESE STORMS...WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR
FLOODING. EMERGENCY MANAGERS SHOULD MONITOR LATER STATEMENTS AND
PROBABLE WARNINGS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING. SPOTTER
ACTIVATION WILL LIKELY BE REQUIRED.

DISCUSSION: AN IMPRESSIVE STORM SYSTEM CONTINUES TO GATHER STRENGTH
AT MID-DAY OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. A WARM FRONT AT NOON...LOCATED
FROM WEST CENTRAL MISSOURI INTO EAST CENTRAL KANSAS...WILL LIFT
SLOWLY NORTHWARD THIS AFTERNOON. THIS AREA ALONG THE WARM FRONT WILL
HAVE THE BEST THREAT FOR TORNADOES THIS AFTERNOON. FURTHER WEST...
SEVERAL LINES OF THUNDERSTORMS ARE BEGINNING TO DEVELOP OVER CENTRAL
AND EASTERN KANSAS. THESE LINES OF STORMS WILL MOVE RAPIDLY
NORTHEAST INTO THE AREA...KEEPING THE THREAT FOR SEVERE WEATHER
RATHER HIGH INTO TONIGHT. BECAUSE OF THE VERY STRONG WIND FIELDS AT
ALL LEVELS ...SOME OF THE STORMS WILL DEVELOP INTO SUPERCELLS
CAPABLE OF PRODUCING TORNADOES. OTHER STORMS WILL LIKELY PRODUCE
LARGE HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS.

HEAVY RAIN IS ALSO A DISTINCT THREAT THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.
WITH THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTING TO REPEAT OVER THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
AND TONIGHT...THE RISK OF FLASH FLOODING IS ON THE RISE.

POLSTON