Severe Thunderstorm Warning 219, NWS Kansas City, MO

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE KANSAS CITY/PLEASANT HILL MO
225 PM CDT MON SEP 28 1998

CHALLENGING FORECAST AGAIN TODAY AS MULTITUDE OF SUBTLE FEATURES
AFFECTING WEATHER. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS SEVERAL WEAK WAVES
BEING GENERATED IN UPPER JET FIELD. PROFILER DATA SHOWS BETTER LOW
LEVEL JET SET UP NORTH OF AREA FROM EASTERN NEBRASKA INTO SOUTHWEST
MINNESOTA. WEAK SURFACE FRONT IN DAKOTAS AND WESTERN NEBRASKA IS
EXPECTED TO MOVE INTO SOUTHEAST NEBRASKA AND IOWA TONIGHT. ETA AND
NGM BRINGS THIS NORTHERN SURFACE FRONT INTO NORTHWEST MISSOURI
OVERNIGHT. CONVERGENCE ALONG IT REMAINS WEAK...SO WILL NEED TO LOOK
ALOFT FOR CLUES AS TO WHERE CONVECTION MIGHT INITIATE TONIGHT.
MOISTURE AVAILABILITY WILL NOT BE A PROBLEM WITH LOW 70S DEWPOINTS
STREAMING INTO EASTERN KANSAS AT THIS TIME. PLENTY OF MOISTURE ALSO
SHOWING UP AT 850 MB. WAVE AT 850 MB TO BE BRUSHING NORTHERN
MISSOURI OVERNIGHT SO THINK NORTHERN PART OF FORECAST AREA WILL HAVE
A CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION TONIGHT.

FOR TUESDAY...BETTER DYNAMICS DEVELOPING AS A STRONGER SHORT WAVE
EJECTS OUT OF WESTERN U.S. AND JET STREAK DEVELOPS OVER NORTHERN
PLAINS. SURFACE BOUNDARY AND 850 BOUNDARIES SET UP ACROSS FORECAST
AREA TO PROVIDE A BETTER FOCUS AND STILL PLENTY OF MOISTURE IN
PLACE. DEVELOPMENT SHOULD FIRST TAKE PLACE IN THE PLAINS THEN ROLL
SOUTHEAST OVERNIGHT...SO MAY BE A FAIRLY LATE NIGHT EVENT.

NO SUBSTANTIAL COOL DOWN EXPECTED UNTILx LATER IN WEAK AS CANADIAN
AIR STAYS BOTTLED UP IN NORTHERN PLAINS. GUIDANCE TEMPS REFLECT THIS
AND WILL BE FOLLOWED.

.EAX...
KS...NONE
MO...NONE

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