Severe Thunderstorm Warning 116, NWS Quad Cities, IA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE QUAD CITIES IA IL
123 PM CDT THU JUN 25 1998

THE 17Z SURFACE ANALYSIS INDICATED LOTS OF MOISTURE WITH ALMOST
EVERYONE EAST OF A OMA-TOP-TUL LINE HAVING DEW POINTS IN THE 70S.
DVN SOUNDING INDICATED VERY STRONG CAP WITH 750MB TEMPERATURE OF
+17.  TO BREAK THIS CAP WOULD NEED TO GET UP AROUND 100 DEGREES.
CURRENT INDICATIONS WOULD NOT HEAT US UP THAT MUCH.

WITH INCREASING MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES WOULD NOT EXPECT MUCH
CONVECTION.  ETA INDICATING 4000 J/KG CAPE THIS AFTERNOON BUT NOT
MUCH IN THE WAY OF A LIFTING MECHANISM AS SURFACE WARM FRONT WELL
TO OUR NORTH AND DRY SLOT PER SATELLITE MOVING IN.  OVERNIGHT LOWS
SHOULD ALSO BE VERY WARM WITH SOUTHWEST WINDS AND DEW POINTS IN THE
LOWER 70S.  MIDDLE 70S WOULD WORK OVER MOST PLACE.

BOTH ETA AND NGM BUILD A NICE RIDGE INTO THE AREA TOMORROW THUS
WOULD EXPECT LESS CLOUD COVER AND MORE HEAT.  LIKE FAN NUMBERS
BETTER THAN FWC.  THINK THAT MIDDLE 90S LOOK BETTER THAN LOWER 90S
FOR FRIDAY.  MODELS DIFFER GREATLY ON SOLUTION OF INCOMING
SHORTWAVE.  NGM MUCH FARTHER SOUTH THAN ETA WITH UPPER AND LOWER
LEVEL SYSTEM.  THE 12Z 250 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS BEST JET ENERGY OVER
WEST COAST ACROSS NEVADA AND SOUTHWEST MONTANA THUS THINK THAT ETA...
OR AT LEAST A COMPROMISE WOULD BE BEST BET.  EITHER WAY IT LOOKS
LIKE THE BEST ENERGY FOR THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT SHOULD BE TO OUR
NORTH AND WEST.  ESPECIALLY WITH MODEL INDICATED +14 TO +16 DEGREES
MOVING IN AT 700 MB.

CID  73/00     DBQ  72/10      MLI  74/00       BRL 75/00

WEISSER