Severe Thunderstorm Warning 73, NWS Duluth, MN

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DULUTH MN
230 PM CDT SAT MAY 30 1998

MAIN CHALLENGE TONIGHT IS RESOLVING PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE AREA.

ETA/NGM AND AVN ALL REASONABLY CONSISTENT IN REDEVELOPING SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MUCH OF OUR CWA TONIGHT. THE MAIN EVENT
SHOULD BE FURTHER SOUTH IN THE VICINITY OF THE WARM FRONT IN
SOUTHERN MINNESOTA...BUT AS SPC JUST INDICATED IN A MESOSCALE
DISCUSSION...THERE IS INCREASING POTENTIAL FOR ELEVATED SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS WITH SEVERE HAIL FROM CENTRAL MINNESOTA INTO NORTHERN
WISCONSIN INTO THIS EVENING. STORMS HAVE INTENSIFIED CONSIDERABLY
WITHIN THE LAST HALF HOUR FROM PARK RAPIDS INTO NW WI.

ETA SEEMS TO HAVE THE BEST HANDLE ON FEATURES AND BASICALLY FAVOR
THAT MODEL FOR TONIGHT. STRENGTHENING JET MOVING ACROSS NORTHWEST
ONTARIO...AND JET SEGMENT APPROACHING THE UPPER MIDWEST WILL COMBINE
TO GENERATE STRONG UPWARD VERTICAL MOTION ACROSS CNTRL/EC MINNESOTA
INTO NORTHERN WISCONSIN THROUGH MIDNIGHT OR SHORTLY AFTER. ETA ALSO
SHOWS  QUITE A BIT OF DIVERGENCE ACROSS THIS AREA THROUGH THIS
EVENING...AND SOME LOW LEVEL THETA-E ADVECTION. WITH PRECIPITABLE
WATER OF 1.30 INCHES...COULD BE SOME HEAVY RAIN TOO...WITH TRAINING
ECHOS ALREADY DROPPING BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES TODAY IN OUR FURTHER
SOUTH COUNTIES IN WISCONSIN.

NEXT PROBLEM IS COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
CANADA. WINDS WILL CRANK UP OVERNIGHT AS CAA MAXIMIZES LATER IN THE
NIGHT. AS WINDS BECOME NORTHWEST...THEY SHOULD INCREASE TO 15 TO 25
MPH AS THE NIGHT WEARS ON.

FOR TONIGHT...WOULD RECOMMEND OCCASIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
FROM THE IRON RANGE SOUTHWARD...WITH SCATTERED POPS FURTHER NORTH.
ALSO NEED TO KEEP THE POSSIBLY SEVERE WORDING WITH LARGE HAIL AND
DAMAGING WINDS STILL A THREAT THIS EVENING. RAIN SHOULD END LATER IN
THE NIGHT...BUT IT WILL REMAIN MOSTLY CLOUDY. LOWS SHOULD RANGE FROM
THE LOWER 40S NORTH TO THE LOWER 50S FURTHER SOUTH INTO NW WI.

DAP

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