Severe Thunderstorm Warning 85, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT MON MAY 18 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS TNGT AND FRONTAL POSITION TMRW...

MODELS SHOW 2 WAVES COMING OUT OF SWRN STATES TWD THE HIGH PLAINS.
ONE CROSSING ARIZONA ATTM IS MORE SUB TROPICAL IN NATURE AND THE
OTHER OFF OF SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA IS TIED TO A STRONGER BAROCLINIC
ZONE. CURRENT THINKG IS THE STRONGER WAVE WILL MOVE WEST OF REGION
ALONG BAROCLINIC ZONE STRETCHING SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST. THE OTHER
WILL GRAZE INTO SWRN KS BY AM. PCPN OVER SWRN KS SHLD BE ON THE
LIGHT SIDE. OTHER FACTOR THIS EVE IS DRY LINE MOVG SLOWLY BACK WEST
AND SOME CNVCTN FIRING OFF SERN CO AND NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
MOUNTAINS. 88D SHOWG VERY WEAK STORMS ATTM AND SHLD NOT LAST MUCH
AFTER DARK. SOME OF THESE MAY GET INTO THE WRN ZONES THIS EVE BEFORE
DYING. OTHER AREA OF CONCERN IS DRY LINE AREA SOUTH AND EAST OF DDC
WERE AFTN TEMPS ARE REACHING CONVECTIVE TEMP. ALL IN ALL WILL NEED
TO CARRY AT LEAST 20 POPS ALL AREAS FOR SOME TSTMS THIS EVE AND THEN
FOR THE WEAK WAVE LATE TNGT.

COLD FRONT ACROSS EXTREME SOUTH NEBRASKA ATTM WILL SAG SOUTH TO NEAR
HAYS BY MORNING...THAT AREA MAY ALSO HAVE A FOCUS FOR TSTMS TNGT.
TMRW COLD FRONT GOES STATIONARY ACROSS NORTH TIER CWA AND VERY WARM
H85 TEMPS IN THE UPPER 20S TO NEAR 30C SUPPORT TEMPS FROM 95 TO 100.
WILL GO A LITTLE COOLER NORTH IN VCNTY OF FRONT. MOST OF PVA GOES
EAST OF AREA AND WILL GO DRY FOR TUES.

STRONGER WAVE MOVES ACROSS TUES NIGHT AND MAY HAVE A CHANCE FOR MCS
ESPECIALLY FAR NORTH WHERE SFC BAROCLINICITY EXISTS. WILL CARRY 30
POPS NORTH AND 20 ELSEWHWERE.

ON WEDNESDAY STATIONARY FRONT CONT ACROSS NORTH AREA AND WILL GO
VERY WARM AGAIN IN THE WARM SECTOR FROM 90 TO 95. THIS IS WARMER
THAN FWC GUID AND CLOSER TO FAN. HAVE USES FCST H85 TEMPS FOR BASIS.

EXTENDED DISC...
MODELS HOLD ONTO STRONG SRN US RIDGE FOR ABOUT 72 HRS...THEN
THEY REALLY CHOP IT BACK AS WRN US HGHT FALLS SPREAD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL US. UKMET AND MRF ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT ON THIS
DEVELOPMENT...THOUGH THE UKMET TENDS TO PUSH A BACK-BOOR HIGH MUCH
FURTHER SOUTH W/TIME. LOOKING AT TRENDS FROM THE LAST 5 DAYS...HGHTS
ARE REALLY BUILDING OVER WRN CA THROUGH NRN AK AND INTO SIBERIA.
THIS TENDS TO ENERGIZE THE SRN STREAM AND I LIKE THE DEAMPLIFICATION
OF THE SRN US RIDGE STARTING THU. THINK WE/LL STILL BE CAPPED WED
NGHT...AND W/BACKING FLOW DON/T THINK HIGHER TERRAIN CONVECTION WL
GET US. THUS WL KEEP THUNDER OUT OF WED NGHT. WL GRADUALLY COOL
THINGS OFF THROUGH SAT. WITH COOLING TEMPS ALOFT AND SOME RETURN
FLOW...CANT RULE OUT CONVECTION ANY OF THE THREE DAYS (SOUND
FAMILIAR).

.DDC...NONE

DDC 061/096 061/093 062 202
GCK 059/096 058/093 060 202
EHA 056/099 058/095 058 201
LBL 058/097 058/094 057 201
HYS 059/089 059/089 060 213
P28 066/093 065/093 066 202

KRUSE/MCAVOY