Severe Thunderstorm Warning 49, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
250 PM CDT TUE MAY 05 1998

18Z SFC STILL SHOWS LOW OVER SOUTHWEST OKLAHOMA WITH DRYLINE
EXTENDING SOUTH.  DEWPOINTS HOLDING IN THE LOWER 50S OVER MOST OF
CWA WITH 58 AT P28.  UPPER BAROCLINIC ZONE FROM NW KANSAS...
SOUTHEAST TOWARD ICT.  GOOD TEMPERATURES CONTRAST FROM HAYS TO DDC.
CU DEVELOPED BY LATE THIS MORNING OVER WEST CWA.  MOISTURE
CONVERGENCE VERY WEAK EXCEPT TOWARD P28.  EXPECT THAT ANY TSRA
DEVELOPMENT WILL BE LATE THIS AFTERNOON NEAR AREA OF GREATEST
TEMPERATURE CONTRAST.  19Z SHORT COMPOSITE HAS CAP OF ABOUT 3
DEGREES WITH -2 LI.  THINK THE AVN/ETA HAVE BEST HANDLE ON THINGS
AGAIN AND WILL MAINLY USE THEM.  MAIN FORECAST CHALLENGE WILL BE
PRECIPITATION CHANCES NEXT 48 HOURS.

MODELS HANDLE UPPER SYSTEM OFF WEST COAST ABOUT THE SAME ALTHOUGH
THEY HAVE A FEW DIFFERENCE IN TIMING AND STRENGTH OF S/W EJECTION.
ALSO...THEY GRADUALLY MOVE SUBTROPICAL JET AXIS FURTHER NORTH BUT
12Z ANALYSIS CONTINUES TO SHOW 300MB HEIGHT FALLS.  NGM WAS THE
FURTHEST NORTH AND ETA/AVN BETTER.  THIS SHOULD KEEP BEST JET
DYNAMICS IN A FAVORABLE LOCATION FOR CWA...ESPECIALLY TOWARD
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS STRONGEST S/W IS PROGGED INTO AREA AROUND THAT
TIME.  WITH RECENT SLOW MOVEMENT OF SYSTEM...MODELS MAY OR MAY NOT
HAVE TIMING.

FOR TONIGHT PERIOD...WV LOOP SHOWS WEAK WAVE MOVING INTO NORTHWEST
NEW MEXICO THIS MORNING AND SHOULD REACH KS TONIGHT.  NO REAL
FOCUSING MECHANISM THIS AFTERNOON AND MAY HAVE TO WAIT FOR S/W
TONIGHT TO GET ANYTHING GOING.  PROGGED SOUNDING FROM ETA HAS
1900J/KG AT 00Z WED BUT WE WILL STILL HAVE SOME CAP.  ENVIRONMENT
INDICATES THAT SEVERE THREAT WILL EXIST TONIGHT WITH HAIL AND
POSSIBLE STRONG DOWNBURSTS. WITH THAT...WILL MENTION 20-30 POPS
TONIGHT ACROSS CWA.

WEDNESDAY...EXPECT SIMILAR DAY AS TODAY.  CU DEVELOPING AND PARTLY
CLOUDY THROUGH THE DAY.  DO NOT THINK MUCH WILL DEVELOP UNTIL LATE
IN THE DAY AND SHOULD COME OFF THE MOUNTAINS WITH STRONGER WAVE
WEDNESDAY NIGHT.   WILL MENTION 20 POPS FOR WEST WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON
FOR WEST.

FOR WEDNESDAY NIGHT/THURSDAY...WILL MENTION 40-50 POP ACROSS CWA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS LOW LEVEL MOISTURE SHOULD STILL BE AROUND AND
UPPER WAVE ENTERS AREA.  ETA 300MB AGEOSTROPHIC DIVERGENCE PROG
LOOKS GOOD FOR TSRA.  STRONG COLD FRONT SHOULD MOVE INTO KANSAS
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND WILL ADD TO THE MAYLAY.  WILL MENTION EARLY
MORNING TSRA MAINLY FOR EASTERN AREAS AND MOSTLY CLOUDY FOR ALL.

THOUGH FWC GUIDANCE WAS PRETTY CLOSE AND ONLY MADE MINOR
ADJUSTMENTS.

.DDC...NONE.

DDC 052/076 051/070 045 314
GCK 051/076 050/072 045 314
EHA 050/077 049/075 046 223
LBL 051/077 051/074 045 223
HYS 053/075 051/070 043 314
P28 058/078 060/076 049 314

REITER

KSZ043-061>063-074>076-084>086-060800-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
120 AM CDT (1220 AM MDT) WED MAY 065 1998

...SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH NUMBER 290 HAS EXPIRED...

THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH FOR PARTS OF SOUTHWEST AND WESTERN
KANSAS EXPIRED AT 1 AM CDT.

WIDESPREAD SEVERE WEATHER IS NOT EXPECTED THE REST OF TONIGHT.
HOWEVER...SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE STILL LIKELY.  ISOLATED STRONG
STORMS...NEAR SEVERE CRITERIA...ARE POSSIBLE.

BURKE