Severe Thunderstorm Warning 375, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
335 PM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

IN THE SHORT TERM IT APPEARS THAT THE CHALLENGE WILL BE THE OVERNIGHT
LOW TEMPS ACROSS CWA AND THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY ALREADY SHOWING
SIGNS OF DEVELOPMENT.

A DRY WEDGE OF AIR DELIVERED SOME CLEAR SKIES TO PORTIONS OF
SOUTHWESTERN KS EARLIER TODAY NEAR SFC BOUNDARY. IN AREAS WHERE
THE SUN HAS BROKEN OUT...SHRA AND TSRA HAVE BEEN DEVELOPING OVER THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AVN AND ETA MOVE SFC FRONT SLOWLY INTO CENTRAL KS BY
SAT AM. NGM IS ALITTLE SLOWER IN ITS TIMING. GIVEN 12Z 500 MB 12HR HT
FALLS CENTERED IN CO AND NORTHWESTERN NEW MEXICO AND ANOTHER 300 MB
JET STREAK DIGGING INTO THE WEST SIDE OF THE UPPER LEVEL LOW...I AM
CURRENTLY LEANING TOWARDS THE NGM SLOWER SOLUTION AT THIS TIME.

WV IMAGERY INDICATING SHORT WAVE MOVING INTO THE EASTERN CO AND THE
PANHANDLES OF OK AND TX. THIS RELATES WELL WITH 50O MB VORT LOBE
LOCATED IN THIS AREA AT 18Z FROM BOTH THE NGM AND ETA. AS THIS SW
MOVES EAST AND ENCOUNTERS THE SFC BOUNDARY...CONVECTION WILL CONTINUE
AND BECOME MORE WIDE SPREAD. 17Z ADAP LI/S WERE -6 AND SOME
DECENT MOISTURE CONVERGENCE PRESENT NEAR THE BOUNDARY WHICH WAS
LOCATED ROUGHLY FROM SCOTT CITY TO LIBERAL. WILL THEREFORE MENTION
POPS EAST OF THIS LINE THIS EVENING WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHEAST AND EASTERN MOST OF THE CWA. WILL ALSO MENTION THAT A
FEW OF THESE STORMS WILL ALSO BE SEVERE. WILL TAKE ONE LAST LOOK BEFORE ISSUING ZONES
FOR POSSIBLY RAISING OF POPS ACROSS THE EAST.

DWPTS HAVE BEEN STEADILY FALLING ACROSS EASTERN CO FROM THE 50S INTO
THE 30S BEHIND THE FRONT. EHA ALSO SHOWING FALLING DWPTS THIS
AFTERNOON.  AHEAD OF THE BOUNDARY THERE WERE DWPTS IN THE 60S ACROSS
THE EASTERN HALF OF THE CWA. WITH SOME CLEAR SKIES OVERNIGHT THIS
WILL GIVE RISE TO A WIDE RANGE OF TEMPERATURES OVERNIGHT AS SOME DRY
AND COOLER AIR SETTLES INTO PORTIONS OF SOUTHWESTERN KS.

SOME MOISTURE WILL WRAP AROUND THIS LOW AND BRING SOME CLOUDS BACK
ON SATURDAY. DO NOT BELIEVE IT WILL AFFECT ALOT OF THE AREA SO WILL
BE OPTIMISTIC AND GO WITH CLEAR SKIES FOR NOW. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
SETTLE IN AND BRING CLEARING CONDITIONS BUT COOL TEMPS FOR THE END OF
THE WEEKEND.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 052/063 039/064 037 300
GCK 048/063 038/064 036 200
EHA 045/062 038/066 036 000
LBL 046/063 039/066 037 200J
HYS 054/064 038/063 038 500
P28 058/068 047/066 039 500

.DDC...NONE.

RB/JC

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF A LINE FROM NESS CITY
TO COLDWATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...HOWEVER MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NESS CITY TO
COLDWATER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. IN THIS
AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ADDITIONALLY PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

RB

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-170600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1118 AM CDT FRI OCT 16 1998

SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE REQUIRED EAST OF A LINE FROM NESS CITY
TO COLDWATER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING.

SYNOPSIS:  AN AREA OF LOW PRESSURE WAS LOCATED IN EASTERN COLORADO
LATE THIS MORNING WITH A COLD FRONT EXTENDING SOUTH ACROSS THE
PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS. THE COLD FRONT WILL SLOWLY MOVE
EAST ACROSS SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS DURING THE AFTERNOON AS AN UPPER
LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES INTO THE AREA FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THIS WILL
PRODUCE SOME SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND AHEAD OF THIS
BOUNDARY DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON ACROSS MUCH OF SOUTHWESTERN
KANSAS...HOWEVER MOST OF THESE STORMS WILL REMAIN BELOW SEVERE
LIMITS. THE EXCEPTION WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM NESS CITY TO
COLDWATER WHERE LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IS MORE ABUNDANT. IN THIS
AREA...LOW LEVEL MOISTURE CONVERGENCE COMBINED WITH A STRONG LOW
LEVEL WIND FLOW MAY ALLOW A FEW OF THESE STORMS TO BECOME SEVERE.

THIS COLD FRONT WILL ADDITIONALLY PRODUCE STRONG SOUTH WINDS OF 20 TO
30 MPH WITH GUSTS OVER 40 MPH THIS AFTERNOON AS IT MOVES EAST ACROSS
THE AREA.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

RB