Severe Thunderstorm Warning 359, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
210 PM CDT MON SEP 28 1998

...SHORT TERM...
PER MRNG RAOB AIRMASS CONTS TO DESTABLIZE WITH LIS LIKELY TO BE IN
THE -5 TO -7 RANGE BY LATE AFTN.  SOME DOUBT ABOUT UPSTRM ENERGY
ALOFT BUT WITH CU DVLPG RAPIDLY ACRS THE NM MOUNTAINS ATTM XPCT AT
LEAST SOME MID TO UPR LVL CAA THIS EVE.  SFC DATA SHWG WK CNVGNC
BNDRY ACRS MY ZNS AND WL THUS PLAY SOME ISOLD EVE TSTMS.  FAR WRN
ZNS COULD ALSO SEE AN ISOLD STORM DRIFT IN FM THE ROCKIES LATER TNGT
IF CNVCTN ALG THE LEE SLOPES HOLDS TOGETHER LONG ENOUGH.

ALL MDLS IN RSNBL AGREEMENT WITH NGM PREFERED FOR SUPERIOR MOISTURE
PARAMETERIZATION.  FWC TEMPS LOOK ABOUT RIGHT FOR TNGT THUS WL STICK
WITH GOING FCST WITH ONLY MINOR TWEEKS.

...LONG TERM...
IN LTR PDS MAIN QSTN BECOMES STRONG COLD HIGH THAT MDLS DIVE INTO
RGN FM CANADA ON WED.  ETA/NGM AND AVN ALL IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS
SYS.  IT DOES APR THAT THE HIGH ORIGINATES AS A HUNK OF THE MARITIME
PACIFIC HIGH IN THE GULF OF AK WHICH IS A LTL WORRISOME.  IF IT DOES
NOT END UP BEING AS STRONG AND COLD AS ALL THE MDLS FCST THE LATTER
PART OF THIS FCST MAY BE A BIG BUST.  SINCE ALL ARE IN GOOD
AGREEMENT HOWEVER HAVE CHOSEN TO GO WITH THEM BRINGING THE COLD FNT
THROUGH ALL MY ZNS ON WED.  AVN MAY BE BEST WITH THE PAC CST H5 LOW
AS IT HAS BEEN MORE CONSERVATIVE IN MOVING THIS FEATURE EWRD WITH
TIME.  IT PUTS THE LOW ARND SLC BY WED EVE WITH BAROCLINIC ZN ALOFT
OVER THE POLAR COLD FNT IN THE HIGH PLAINS RGN.  THIS TRANSLATES TO
HEALTHY ISENT UPGLIDE OVER THE COLD AIR AS WELL AS DECENT UPSLP.
FOR WED WILL GO WITH TEMPS A CATEGORY OR 2 COOLER THAN FWC AND BUMP
THE POPS UP AS WELL.  IN FACT...THE EAST SIDE OF THE H5 LOW
BAROCLINIC ZN REACHES WRN KS TUES NGT AND WL NEED SOME SML POPS IN
WRN 2/3RDS OF MY ZNS THEN AS WELL.  ALL THIS IS SUBJECT TO MUCH
ALTERATION AS TIME PASSES AND THE PERFORMANCE OF THE COLD HIGH AND
UPR LOW BECOME MORE APPARENT.
JOHNSON

MRF CONTINUES TO BE THE MOST CONSISTENT MODEL FROM RUN TO RUN...SO
WILL STICK WITH IT FOR NOW. NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDAY TO MOVE THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY WITH A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE CENTER MOVING
FROM JUST NORTH OF THE DAKOTAS WEDNESDAY NIGHT TO THE EASTERN GREAT
LAKES FRIDAY EVENING. UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES FROM NORTHWEST COLORADO
TO THE TEXAS PANHANDLE DURING THE SAME TIME FRAME. THIS INDICATES
WESTERN KANSAS WILL BE A GOOD UPSLOPE PATTERN WITH PLENTY OF UPPER
LEVEL ENERGY TO AID IN BRINGING WIDESPREAD RAIN...ALONG WITH COOLER
TEMPS TO THE REGION BOTH THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. EXPECT TO SEE SOME
DECREASE IN THE CLOUDS ON SATURDAY AS THE SFC HIGH PUSHES FARTHER
EAST AND AN UPPER LEVEL HIGH MOVES IN FROM THE SOUTHWEST. THE UPPER
LEVEL HIGH BECOMES SITUATED OVER WESTERN KANSAS SUNDAY EVENING AND
INCHES NORTHEAST ON MONDAY...BRINGING FEW CLOUDS AND WARMER TEMPS
BACK TO THE AREA.
PARKIN

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 060/091 063/077 060 202
GCK 056/091 061/077 060 202
EHA 056/089 060/075 060 203
LBL 061/092 064/080 062 202
HYS 060/090 062/076 058 202
P28 064/093 066/082 064 200

.DDC...NONE.