Severe Thunderstorm Warning 352, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
211 PM CDT SUN SEP 27 1998

...SHORT TERM...
MAIN CNCRN TNGT IS XTNT OF UPSLP CLDS IN MY NRN ZNS AND CHCS FOR
CNVCTN ALG AND JUST N OF FNT.  NGM DOING BEST AT 18Z AND WL
GENERALLY USE WITH MINOR ADJUSTMENTS FOR WIND DIRECTIONS AND TEMPS
IN COOLER DRIER AIR IN FAR WRN ZNS.  FNT ATTM FM N OF HUT TO S OF
DDC AND LBL AND MAKING ONLY VRY SLO SERLY PROGRESS.  SFC LOW NOW SE
OF DDC SHD DRIFT INTO CNTRL KS BY MRNG PER NGM.  MSTR CNVGNC ALG
BNDRY CONTS TO STEEPEN LAPSE RATES THAT AREA AND WL NEED SML POPS
FOR EVE SHWRS/TSTMS IN MY SE AND NE ZNS WHERE BEST LIFT AND INSTBLTY
MATCHES UP.  AS FNT MOVES ON AND DRIER COOLER AIR PENETRATES THIS
AREA FROM THE WEST ALL CHC FOR CNVCTN SHD SHUT OFF BY MDNGT.
ELSEWHERE...UPSLP HAS NOT MATURED AS XPCTD XCPT MY FAR NE ZNS ARND
HYS.  THO THERE MAY BE SOME PATCHY UPSLP INDUCED CLD TNGT MOST AREAS
SHD SEE MAINLY CLEAR SKIES AS UPR RDG/SBSDNC CONTS TO BUILD IN.

...LONG TERM...
UPR RDG CONTS TO DOMINATE THRU MONDAY AS LEE LOW SLOLY DEEPENS OVR
NEBR THUS WNDS SHD GRADUALLY RETURN TO S-SE BY MON AFTN.  SBSDNC
UNDER THE UPR RDG SHD KEEP SKIES MOSTLY SUNNY ALLOWING TEMPS TO WARM
ONCE AGN TO READINGS VEY CLOSE TO FWC MOS.  ALL MDSL IN RUFF
AGREEMENT ON STARTING TO BREAK DOWN UPR RDG MON NGT INTO TUES AS
LOBES OF VORT ROTATE OUT OF PAC CST UPR LO AND DRAW ON MONSOONAL
FLOW OVR NM.  WL PLAY SML CHC POPS IN W AND FAR N ZNS MON NGT AS
CNVCTN SHD FIRE ALG LEE SLOPES AND A FEW MAY WORK E INTO MY ZNS.

ON TUES W CST UPR LOW FCST BY AVN TO FINALLY LIFT OUT AND MOVE EWRD
TO NEAR LAS AS NEXT LOBE OF VORT ROTATES INTO SW KS.  SFC LOW IN LEE
SLOPES SHD CONT TO DEEPEN IN RESPONSE TO THIS THUS INCRG SRLY BNDRY
LYR FLOW AND WL MNTN BREEZY FOR ALL BUT FAR WRN ZNS.  COULD ALSO BE
SOME LATE DAY TSTMS WITH THIS FEATURE BUT WL PLAY THEM TO BE TUES
EVE FOR NOW.  LTR SHIFTS WL HV TO WATCH THIS AND ADJUST THINGS
ACCORDINGLY.  A LOT OF WHAT HAPPENS WITH THIS UPSTRM SYS WL DEPEND
ON WHAT GEORGES DOES AND DO NOT HV A GOOD HANDLE ON THIS ATTM.
JOHNSON

...EXTENDED...
UKMET APPEARS TO BE THE ODD MAN OUT FOR THE EXTENDED THIS CYCLE.  IT
KEEPS THE UPPER LOW MUCH FARTHER TO THE WEST AND THE SFC HIGH
FARTHER SOUTH THAN BOTH THE MRF AND THE ECMWF.  MRF HAS BEEN FAIRLY
CONSISTENT AND WILL STICK WITH IT FOR NOW.  LEE TROF TO THE WEST OF
THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT WITH A COLD/COOL FRONT PUSHING THROUGH
DURING THE DAY WEDNESDAY.  CHANCES FOR CONVECTION WITH THE FRONT ARE
IFFY RIGHT NOW AS TIMING VERY UNCERTAIN.  THE BOUNDARY MOVES SOUTH
OF THE REGION WEDNESDAY NIGHT AS A CLOSED UPPER LEVEL LOW MOVES INTO
COLORADO.  A STRONG SFC HIGH MOVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION...AND
GOOD UPSLOPE RAIN SITUATION LOOKS TO SET UP.  UPSLOPE SHOULD
CONTINUE UNTIL EARLY SATURDAY WHEN ANOTHER LEE TROF BEGINS TO
DEVELOP AND SHIFTS WINDS BACK TO THE SOUTH.  LIMITED MOISTURE AND
SOUTHERLY FLOW SHOULD MAKE FOR GRADUALLY WARMING TEMPS OVER THE
WEEKEND.
PARKIN

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC 061/090 063/090 060 000
GCK 056/088 058/088 058 002
EHA 056/089 059/087 059 002
LBL 060/090 060/090 060 002
HYS 060/088 064/089 064 002
P28 063/093 066/092 065 200