Severe Thunderstorm Warning 343, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
330 PM CDT WED SEP 09 1998

SOME HIGH-BASED PRECIP HAS APPEARED FROM EASTERN NM TO
LBL...INDICATING THAT STATIONARY BOUNDARY IS NOT OUT OF BUSINESS
YET.  THE STRONGEST THUNDERSHOWERS TO NORTH OF AMA DEVELOPED IN AREA
OF WEAKEST CAP AND GREATEST INSTABILITY ON ADAP.  STILL...MOISTURE
ISNT THAT DEEP SO BELIEVE CONVECTION WONT LAST VERY FAR INTO THE
EVENING.  BOTH AMA AND DDC SOUNDINGS HAD INVERTED V PROFILES SO
MAIN THREAT WILL BE GUSTY WINDS.  HAVE INCLUDED SLIGHT CHANCE POPS
FOR EXTREME SOUTHWEST PART OF CWFA THIS EVENING.

IN THE REMAINDER OF THE AREA THE ATMOSPHERE HAS DRIED OUT
CONSIDERABLY AND WARMED A BIT UNDER UNIFORM SOUTHERLY WINDS.  AFTER
THE CONVECTION DIES ALL AREAS SHOULD COOL TO SLIGHTLY LOWER MINIMA
THAN LAST NIGHT BECAUSE OF THE DRIER DEWS.  FWC NUMBERS LOOK
REASONABLE TOMORROW AS PERSISTENCE SEEMS A GOOD BET.  WILL HAVE TO
WATCH MOISTURE ADVECTION FROM PANHANDLES AREA TO SEE IF MOISTURE
DEEPENS HOWEVER.

AS SURFACE TROF MOVES INTO NORTH CENTRAL STATES ON
FRIDAY...LOW LEVEL WINDS SHIFT TO SOUTHWESTERLY...GIVING SOME
DOWNSLOPE WARMING NORTHEAST ZONES.  TEMPERATURES NEAR 95 IN THESE
AREAS ARE NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION. BELIEVE TROF/COLD
FRONT WILL BE TOO FAR NORTH TO JUSTIFY SIGNIFICANT POPS ON FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION...
IN BASIC AGREEMENT WITH LATEST PMDEPD DISC.  CANADIAN/NOGAPS SLTN FOR
NRN BRANCH LOOKS BEST IN LTR PDS.  THO NGM/ETA PREFERED FOR DVLPG CUT
OFF SRN CALIF/BAJA LOW N OF JAVIER AGREE THAT IT IS UNLIKELY TO DRAW
MUCH FM JAVIER N INTO THE FLOW.  MORE LIKELY SCENARIO IS FOR MID OR
UPR LVL MSTR FM TD 6 NRWD INTO THE FLOW AS SUGGESTED BY AVN.  A LOT
DEPENDS ON TD 6 FOR KS XTND PDS.  CNVCTV FEEDBACKS FROM THIS SYS
INTO THE SRN PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVR THE CNTRL US WL NOT BE
WL REPRESENTED BY ANY OF THE MDLS.  THE OLD RULE OF THUMB OF STEERING
THE SYS TWRD THE WEAKNESS IN THE H3 RDG HOWEVER LENDS CREDENCE TO THE
AVN FOR LTR PDS AND WL BUY THAT SCENARIO FOR NOW.  GIVEN THIS AND THE
DVLPG HI INDEX ZONAL PTTN IN THE NRN BRANCH WL LOOK FOR AN E-W BNDRY
IN THE NRN PLNS THRU SAT WITH THE CHC FOR SOME TROPICAL MSTR TO
RETURN TO THE RGN SUNDAY INTO MID WEEK THUS A CHC FOR LATE AFTN AND
EVE CNVCTN SUN THRU WED.  CONFIDENCE IN THIS SCENARIO IS FAIRLY LOW
DUE TO THE ILL DEFINED EFFECTS OF THE TROPICAL SYSTEMS.  WL STICK
FAIRLY CLOSE TO GOING XTND AND FMR FOR TEMPS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE DODGE CITY ZONE FORECAST.

DDC  059/092 058/090 060 000
GCK  059/091 058/089 060 000
EHA  059/089 059/089 059 100
LBL  061/090 060/089 060 100
HYS  058/093 059/093 059 000
P28  060/092 057/091 058 000

.DDC...NONE

HUNTER

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-090600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1030 AM CDT WED SEP 09 1998

...SPOTTER ACTIVATION IS NOT EXPECTED THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING....

SYNOPSIS: A STATIONARY FRONT LINGERS FROM EASTERN COLORADO
THROUGH THE PANHANDLES OF OKLAHOMA AND TEXAS.  TO THE EAST OF
THIS BOUNDARY THE ATMOSPHERE IS DRY AND STABLE...SO
THUNDERSTORMS ARE NOT EXPECTED IN SOUTHWEST KANSAS TODAY OR
TONIGHT.  THERE MAY BE SOME HIGH BASED CLOUDS...PARTICULARLY NEAR
THE FRONT...BUT THESE ARE NOT EXPECTED TO PRODUCE ANY MEASURABLE
PRECIPITATION.

UPPER LEVEL HIGH PRESSURE HAS BEEN SLOW TO GIVE WAY TO A STORM
APPROACHING FROM THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...AND SO THE NEXT CHANCE
FOR PRECIPITATION APPEARS TO BE ON FRIDAY EVENING AT THE
EARLIEST.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

HUNTER