Severe Thunderstorm Warning 291, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
253 PM CDT TUE JUL 28 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGES ARE POPS TONIGHT AND FRONTAL PLACEMENT
   TMRW...

COLD FRONT MOVG SOUTH ACROSS CENTRAL NB AND S WY AHEAD OF SCHEDULE
AND SHLD CONT ITS SOUTHWARD MOVMT INTO SWRN KS OVERNGT. JUST WHERE
IT WILL BE BY 12Z WED IS ANYBODYS GUESS. IF GOOD AREA OF CNVCTN
FIRES ALONG IT SOUTHWARD MVMNT WILL BE FASTER. ALSO WEAK SHRTWV
SHOWING UP IN NERN CO ATTM WITH WEAK SFC LOW FORMING N OF SYRACUSE
IS CAUSING SOME BACKING OF SFC WINDS. SOME CONVERG FORMING AHD OF
WAVE AND TROF FIRING SOME TSTMS ALSO ATTM IN N CWA. WITH VORT AND
CURRENT TSTMS IN NORTH WILL CARRY BEST POPS THAT AREA WITH 40 PCT
AND 20 TO 30 PCT ELSEWHERE. FOR TEMPS WILL NOT STRAY FROM
PERSISTENCE.

ON WED NGM IS ODD MAN OUT ON COLD FRONTAL PLACEMENT AND WILL USE
AVN/ETA SFC WHICH IS MORE SOUTH. WILL GUESS FRONT TO END UP
GENERALLY FROM MEADE TO LAKIN WITH SERLY UPSLOPE IN THE EAST AND
SOUTH WINDS IN THE WEST CWA. TEMPS WILL BE ADJ TO FIT AND WILL GO
AROUND 92 WEST AND 85 TO 90 EAST. WITH FRONTAL BNDRY CONVERG AND
ANOTHER WAVE BY AVN WILL CONT 30 POPS ACROSS THE BOARD.

ON WED NIGHT AND THURS AGAIN FRONTAL BOUNDARY HARD TO GUESS WHERE IT
WILL BE. WITH CONT OF VORTS AND CONVERG ON BOUNDARYS WILL KEEP SOME
POPS GOING FROM 20 TO 30 PCT WITH 40 IN THE NORTH WHERE BEST PVA IS
AND DEEP LAYER MSTR FOR WED NIGHT. AVN HAS STRONGEST VORT AND WILL
USE. VORT THEN MOVS EAST BY 12Z THURS WITH NVA BEHIND IT AND WILL
NOT GO WITH ANY POPS ON THURS. NERLY UPSLOPE FLOW MAY LEAD TO LOTS
OF CLOUDS OR STRATUS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 067/089 067/086 067 233
GCK 065/090 066/086 067 233
EHA 064/092 066/089 067 232
LBL 065/092 067/090 067 232
HYS 066/087 065/084 067 434
P28 072/090 072/092 070 332

.DDC...NONE

KRUSE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-290600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1100 AM CDT TUE JUL 28 1998

A FEW STORM SPOTTERS MAY BE REQUIRED TODAY.

THE COMBINATION OF DEEP MOISTURE AND WEAK MID-LEVEL DISTURBANCES
MAY SET OFF A FEW THUNDERSTORMS LATER THIS AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING. THE MOST LIKELY AREAS WILL BE EAST OF A LINE FROM LIBERAL
TO DODGE CITY AND LARNED. A FEW OF THESE MAY APPROACH SEVERE LIMITS
...HOWEVER THE MAIN THREAT WILL BE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL.

FOR MORE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE:
HTTP://WWW.DODGECITY.NET/NWS/

KRUSE