Severe Thunderstorm Warning 286, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
229 PM CDT SUN JUL 26 1998

BIGGEST CONCERNS THIS CYCLE ARE HOW TO GRADIENT POPS ACROSS THE
CWFA ALL 4 PERIODS

INTERESTING PATTERN CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL PLAINS. 12Z UPPER AIR
SHOWS THAT H5 HIGH OVER TX/OK HAS REMAINED NEARLY STATIONARY LAST
TWO DAYS...W/ONLY 10M HGHT FALLS ON ITS NW FLANK. AN ELONGATED SHEAR
AXIS PERSISTS W OF THE HIGH. THIS TUT-LIKE FEATURE HAS ALLOWED
MID-LEVELS TO BECOME SOPPING WET W +5 TO +7 H7 DWPTS. AT THE
SFC...COLD FRONT OOZED INTO NRN OK THIS MORNING...WITH DECK OF LOW
CLOUDS TO ITS N. COLD AIR IS ABOUT 4KFT DEEP ON PROFILERS...SO IT
SHOULDNT GO ANYWHERE FOR A WHILE.

AS NRN STREAM S/W STREAKS BY OVERNIGHT...TAIL OF THE VORT HELPS TO
STRENGTHEN DEFORMATION ZONE OVER THE STATE.  LOOKING AT 12Z UPPER
AIR...I THINK THIS SYSTEM HAS BECOME BAROCLINIC ENOUGH THAT THE PCPN
GENERATED BY THE MODELS OVERNIGHT ALMOST SEEMS TRUSTWORTHY.  THE
PAST SEVERAL DAYS MOST OF THE ACTION HAS BEEN A GOOD 100 MILES NORTH
OF THE ACTUAL SFC FRONT.  PROBLEM TDA IS THAT THERE IS SO MUCH LOW
CLOUDINESS AND STATIC STABILITIES HAVE RISEN SO MUCH IN ERN CO...I
WONDER HOW MUCH CONVECTION WL ACTUALLY DEVELOP UPSTREAM. W/H5 JET
STILL ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS...GOOD FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AND
THETA-E AXIS ACROSS SRN CWA...NOT TOO WORRIED ABOUT CO TSRA. WL KEEP
PREVOPUS SHIFTS LIKELY POPS SRN 2/3RD CWA...W/MENTION OF HEAVY RAIN.
THESE ZONES HAVE BEEN RATHER DRY LATELY SO NO FFA.

HEART OF H8 COLD POOL SHOULD BE CENTERED OVER CWA ON MON. STRATUS
AND MID-LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE ACCAS WL KEEP SKIES MOSTLY CLOUDY.
HIGHS WL BE QUITE COOL...80 TO 85 MOST ZONES.  I/M ALMOST CERTAIN
THERE WL BE A RANGE OF TEMPS ACROSS CWA...BUT I HAVE NO IDEA WHICH
PART WL WARM UP AND WHICH WL STAY UNDER THE THICKEST CLOUDS.  AS FOR
POPS...WL KEEP SOME IN THE SRN TIER...THOUGH THE N FINALLY LOOKS TO
GET OUT OF IT FOR A COUPLE PERIODS AS THE BAROCLINIC ZONES SAGS S.
LAPSE RATES ARE ONLY ON THE ORDER OF 5 DEG C/KM MON NGHT. THUS WL
GO CHANCE SHRA/TSRA SRN HALF AND NOTHING N.

ON TUE...COLD POOL LOOKS TO ERODE DURING THE DAY.  PRESSURE PATTERN
WL BE QUITE WEAK...THOUGH WEAK TROF LOOKS TO DEVELOP OVER SRN CWA.
AS H5 RIDGE BOUNCES BACK SOME...THERE WL AGAIN EXIST GOOD MID LEVEL
FLOW.  WHO KNOWS WHAT SORT OF H5 VORT WL ROLL OUT OF THE SUBTROPICS
...BUT THERE ALMOST CERTAINLY WL BE ONE.  W/COOL TEMPS ALOFT AND
AMPLE LL JUICE...WL GO CHANCE AFTN POPS SRN ZONES AND RAISE HIGHS A
COUPLE CATEGORIES W/MORE SUN AS WELL.

...EXTENDED...HAVE CHANGED FCST AS NEW MRF NOW SHOWS THE UPPER RIDGE
FARTHER WEST WITH MORE TROFINESS OVER WRN KS. THIS WILL KEEP A
COOLER UPSLOPE REGIME GOING WITH UPSLOPE MOISTURE AND A CHANCE FOR
MAINLY LATE AFTERNOON AND OVERNIGHT THUNDERSTORMS. HAVE GONE A
CATEGORY OR TWO BELOW FMR GUIDANCE FOR HIGH TEMPS. STILL A QUESTION
ON FRIDAY EXACTLY WHERE WARM FRONT WILL BE SO WILL GO WITH 85 TO
95.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 065/080 065/087 067 734
GCK 063/082 063/088 065 634
EHA 063/082 063/087 065 734
LBL 064/082 064/088 066 734
HYS 066/084 065/089 068 412
P28 068/086 068/092 070 734

.DDC...NONE

MCAVOY