Severe Thunderstorm Warning 281, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
241 PM CDT SAT JUL 25 1998

12Z ANALYSIS SHOWS LITTLE IN THE WAY OF HGHT CHANGES OVER THE SRN
PLAINS LAST 24 HRS.  MOST INTERESTING FEATURE AT H5 WAS 50-70M
HGHT RISES OVER THE PAC NW...WHICH MATCHES W/2 DAY LOOP ON VAPOR IN
SHOWING HGHTS REALLY BEGINNING TO RISE CENTERED ON 130W.  LOOKS LIKE
PATTERN WL TRY TO BECOME MORE MERIDIANAL OVER ERN PAC AND CANADA...
AS S/W ENERGY DIVES INTO THE GREAT LAKES REGION BY MONDAY.

FOR TONIGHT HOWEVER...H5 JET ON THE ORDER OF 30KTS CONTINUES ON THE
PERIPHERY OF STRONG SRN PLAINS H5 RIDGE. LOTS OF LITTLE SWIRLS ON
THE PERIPHERY OF THIS HIGH AS WELL. I LIKE THE ETA SOLUTION OF
KEEPING THE LL MOIST AXIS OVER SRN KS AND ERN CO THIS EVENING. LIKE
THE PAST TWO DAYS...SOME LATE DAY TSRA WL FIRE ALONG THE WARM FRONT.
HOWEVER...THE BEST ACTION SHOULD FIRE ON THE HIGHER TERRAIN OF ERN
CO AND THEN RIDE THE COLD POOL OUT INTO WRN KS OVERNIGHT...WHERE LL
JET OF 30KTS WL MAINTAIN IT NICELY. BASED OF RAINFALL OVER PAST 3
DAYS...AND 18Z CONFERENCE CALL...WL GO FFA OVER THE NRN 1/3RD OF
CWA. AREA OF SUBSIDENCE AROUND H5 HIGH HAS PUSHED JUST A LITTLE
FURTHER N TDA...AND WL HAVE TO WATCH SFC BNDRY AND MAKE LAST MINUTE
DECISION ON HOW HIGH TO CARRY POPS IN SRN TIER.

MODELS ALL PUSH THE FRONT A LITTLE FURTHER S BY SUN...MOSTLY IN
RESPONSE TO COLD SURGE CAUSED BY OVERNIGHT CONVECTION...AS WELL AS
SOME INFLUENCE OF MARITIME HIGH BEHIND RATHER WEAK LEADING VORT.
THIS MAKES FOR A FUN TEMPERATURE FORECAST...AS HIGHS IN THE SRN
ZONES COULD BE ANYWHERE FORM 80 TO 95.  BY 12Z LL JET REALLY LOOKS
TO VEER...AND I THINK MOST TSRA WL BE GONE BY THEN...W/SFC BNDRY
POSSIBLY S OF CWA...THINK I GET BY W/30 POPS MOST ZONES DURING THE
DAY (POSSIBLY LOWER).

SUN NGHT WRLY MID LEVEL FLOW LOOKS TO WEAKEN AND LL JET DOESN/T LOOK
AS STRONG. STILL...THERE IS A MID LEVEL DEFORMATION ZONE OVER REGION
AND DWPTS STILL QUITE HIGH. THE NGM LOOKS TO BE OVERDONE W/THE
STRENGTH OF THE CLD FRNT...AND I TEND TO LIKE THE WEAKER ETA. WL GO
LIKELYS AND CHANCE N AND LET LATER SHIFTS WORK FROM THERE.

ON MON GOOD UPSLOPE DEVELOPS IN ERN CO...W/A FAIR AMOUNT OF CLOUDS
ALONG AND N OF FRONTAL BNDRY INTO THE PLAINS AS WELL. AS IM
SKEPTICAL ABOUT THE STRENGTH OF THE FRONT...I DO NOT THINK THE
AIRMASS DRIES OUT ANY...IN FACT...IT LOOKS AS IF WE WL CONTINUE TO
CONCENTRATE LOW AND MID LEVEL MOISTURE OVER THE REGION. ONCE AGAIN
THE QUESTION IS TIMING OF POPS. W/LIMITED SFC CONVERGENCE...THINK
MOST TSRA WL HOLD OFF UNTIL THE EVENING HRS.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 067/085 065/086 066 635
GCK 065/086 063/089 065 635
EHA 067/090 065/088 065 635
LBL 067/088 065/087 066 635
HYS 066/082 064/088 067 834
P28 072/093 070/088 070 436

.DDC...FLASH FLOOD WATCH FOR TONIGHT...FFA KSZ030-031-043>046.

MCAVOY