Severe Thunderstorm Warning 27, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
204 PM CDT MON APR 06 1998

...SHORT TERM...
MAIN QSTN WL BE SVR CNVCTN IN ERN 1/2 MY ZNS.  ATTM AGREE WITH SPC
MCD BEST SVR POTENTIAL IN MY FAR SE ZNS WHERE SS AND WAA CONTS AND
DWPTS ALRDY INTO LWR 50S.  CLD CVR IN WRN AND NRN ZNS ALG WITH DRY
LN E OF DDC AND LBL SHD LIMIT LATE AFTN ACTIVITY REST OF AREA THO
WITH SFC LOW NR GAG BY 00Z WRAP ARND WL REACH DDC...GCK AND LBL
SO WL NEED TO KEEP SOME POPS THERE ENDING AFT MDNGT. PRFLRS INDICATE
BACKING AT H8 LAST 2 HRS THUS SHR PROFILE FAVORABLE FOR ISOLD SUPER
CELLS AND TORNADOES.  NEW 15Z RUC OUTPUT LOOKS PRETTY GOOD ON SFC
FEATURES AND WL GENERALLY USE FOR THE SHORT TERM AS IT BLENDS INTO
ETA SLTN KEEPING SFC LOW FARTHER S THAN NGM AND AVN.  GIVEN AMNT OF
COLD AIR OVR NEBR THIS SEEMS BEST.  CNVCTN SHD FIRE NEXT COUPLE OF
HRS OVR OK AND WORK NE INTO MY ZNS.  CLDS THRU THE NGT WL LIMIT
COOLING THUS FWC TEMPS LOOK RSNBL AND WL USE.

...LONG TERM...
IN LTR PDS MAIN QUANDRY IS WHICH MODEL TO BELIEVE.  WL AGN GIVE NOD
TO ETA WITH SLOWER AND FARTHER S SOLUTION ON SFC LOW.  THIS LOW NR
TOP BY MRNG AND WADDLING AROUND THE KC AREA MOST OF THE DAY.  THIS
SHD GIVE AMPLE OPPORTUNITY FOR WRAP ARND TO LINGER ACRS NRN HALF MY
ZNS THRU THE DAY THUS CLOUDY WITH CHC POPS FOR RAIN THAT AREA THO
ALG OK BORDER MAY SEE FAIR AMNT SS THRU THE DAY.  WL HV TO ADJUST
TEMPS ACCORDINGLY WITH WARMEST READINGS IN S AND UNDERCUT GUIDANCE
IN NRN ZNS.  AS THIS SYS TURNS EQUIVALENT BAROTROPIC OVR MISSOURI
VALLEY ON TUES WL LOOK FOR NRLY WNDS...CLDS AND CAA TO CONT THUS WL
HV TO UNDERCUT HIGHS FOR WED AND BUMP UP OVRNGT LOWS TUES NGT.  AS
TO ANY PCPN...WL BE IMPOSSIBLE TO TIME SPOKES SWINGING ARND THIS SYS
BUT WL HV TO LEAVE SOME SML CHC POPS IN ERN ZNS FOR THIS.

.DDC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 042/061 040/058 038 422
GCK 040/062 037/058 036 322
EHA 043/064 042/060 040 1--
LBL 043/063 041/060 040 21-
HYS 045/058 040/056 036 744
P28 049/068 044/063 040 624

JOHNSON

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-070600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1126 AM CDT MON APR 06 1998

SYNOPSIS:  A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER WEST KANSAS WILL CONTINUE TO
PROVIDE STRONG FOCUS FOR LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND HEATING TO THE EAST
OF THE LOW OVER NORTH CENTRAL OKLAHOMA AND CENTRAL KANSAS.
MEANWHILE...A STRONG UPPER DISTURBANCE WILL TRACK EAST NORTHEAST OUT
OF NEW MEXICO INTO THE SOUTHERN PLAINS THIS EVENING.  ALREADY
UNSTABLE CONDITIONS ACROSS WEST OKLAHOMA...THE EAST TEXAS PANHANDLE
AND CENTRAL KANSAS WILL BECOME EVEN MORE VOLATILE AS THE UPPER
SYSTEM ARRIVES.  VERTICAL WIND STRUCTURE IN THE ATMOSPHERE INDICATES
THE POTENTIAL FOR SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS IN THESE AREAS INCLUDING THE
CHANCE FOR LARGE HAIL OR AN ISOLATED TORNADO PRODUCING SUPERCELL
THUNDERSTORM.

ISOLATED SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE STARTING EARLY THIS
EVENING AND ENDING MAINLY BEFORE MIDNIGHT.  THE AREA MOST UNDER
THREAT WILL BE EAST OF A HAYS TO DODGE CITY AND LIBERAL LINE.
SPOTTERS WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED IN THIS AREA.

JOHNSON