Severe Thunderstorm Warning 253, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
315 PM CDT FRI JUL 10 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS AND PCPN AMOUNTS...

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED WARM FRONT FROM JUST SOUTH OF LAA EAST TO
JUST N OF DDC AND P28. AREA OF SHRA/TSRA HAS BROKEN OUT JUST NORTH OF
FRONT IN EXTREME EASTERN CWA IN CONJUCTION WITH S/W DEPICTED ON WATER
VAPOR LOOP ACROSS NORTH-CENTRAL KANSAS. FRONT HAS BEEN SLOWLY MOVING
NORTH THE LAST FEW HOURS BUT BELIEVE AS CONVECTION INCREASES IN
COVERAGE THIS EVENING WITH APPROACH OF NEXT S/W ACROSS CENTRAL COLORADO
THAT FRONT WILL STALL AND THEN BEGIN TO MOVE SOUTH AS COMPLEX FORMS
ACROSS WEST-CENTRAL KANSAS TONIGHT. WITH FRONT FURTHER SOUTH THAN
YESTERDAY AT THIS TIME ALONG WITH A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK OF S/W ACROSS
NORTH-CENTRAL KS TONIGHT AS OPPOSED TO NORTHERN KS HEAVIEST RAIN SHOULD
FALL FURTHER SOUTH TONIGHT ACROSS MY CENTRAL AND NORTHERN COUNTIES FROM
STAFFORD TO DDC AND NORTH TO WAKEENEY WITH LOCAL 2-4 INCH AMOUNTS NOT
OUT OF QUESTION. WILL GO CAT TO LIKELY POPS TONIGHT TSRA WITH
ANTICIPATION OF COMPLEX WITH HIGHEST POPS ACROSS NORTH CLOSET TO TRACK
OF S/W AND JUST NORTH OF BOUNDARY. WILL ISSUE FFA FOR TREGO COUNTY
TONIGHT TO ACCOUNT FOR POSSIBLE MAINSTEM FLOODING ON SMOKY HILL AS THIS
REGION AND POINTS WEST HAVE RECEIVED DECENT RAINS THE LAST FEW NIGHTS
AND FFA FOR FOR ELLIS AND TREGO COUNTIES FOR POSSIBLE FLASH FLOODING FOR
LOW FFG VALUES IN THESE COUNTIES WITH EXPECTED RAINS TONIGHT. FOR TEMPS
TONIGHT WILL FOLLOW PERSISTENCE.

ETA/NGM ARE VERY SIMILAR WITH TRACK OF S/W SLOWLY MOVING THROUGH
CENTRAL KANSAS. WILL CARRY POPS SHRA/TSRA INTO TOMORROW AND TOMORROW
NIGHT AS UPSLOPE FLOW ALONG WITH DECENT INSTABILITY WILL PERSIST NORTH
OF FRONT ACROSS CWA AS FRONT CONTINUES TO SAG SOUTH OF REGION.

NEXT MAJOR S/W DUE TO APPROACH FROM WEST LATE SUNDAY AND WITH UPSLOPE
FLOW AND BOUNDARY TO SOUTH WILL KEEP CHC TSRA INTO SUNDAY. FOR TEMPS
WENT BELOW GUIDANCE DURING DAY WITH CLOUDS AND RAINFALL AND PERSISTENCE
AT NIGHT.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 068/086 068/089 066 732
GCK 067/086 068/090 066 732
EHA 067/089 067/093 065 622
LBL 068/089 068/092 066 622
HYS 068/083 067/090 065 832
P28 072/088 072/094 070 743

.DDC...FFA KSZ030-031 FOR ELLIS AND TREGO COUNTIES FOR FLASH FLOOD
POTENTIAL AND POSSIBLE FLOODING ON SMOKY HILL RIVER IN TREGO COUNTY.

CICCONE