Severe Thunderstorm Warning 247, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
334 PM CDT MON JUL 06 1998

FORECAST CHALLENGE IS SPEED OF WEAK COLD FRONT TUES INTO TUES
NIGHT...AND TIMING OF ASSOCIATED PRECIP.

WILL HAVE TO RAISE POPS AND LOWER TEMPS CONSIDERABLY FROM GOING
FORECAST.  19Z SURFACE MAP SHOWING FAIRLY GOOD LOW LEVEL
CONVERGENCE IN E COLORADO INTO NW KANSAS...WHERE COLD FRONT IS
STALLING INTO A STATIONARY FRONT.  THINK THIS FRONT WILL EASILY
FALL INTO LEE TROP IN SE COLORADO THIS EVENING...WITH MORE
CONVECTION FIRING IN NW CWA FROM OUTFLOW BOUNDARIES FROM
AFOREMENTIONED FRONT AND THUNDERSTORMS.  SECOND WAVE OF SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE IN FROM NE NEW MEX-SE COLORADO AREA INTO SW
CWA.  THINK ANY STORMS WHICH DO FIRE COULD HAVE HEAVY DOWNPOURS DUE
TO HIGH PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES FROM 1.75-2.50 ACROSS CWA.

FRONT SHOULD MAKE SECOND SURGE SOUTHWARD ON TUES AFTN...BUT RUN INTO
LOW LEVEL JET FULL OF MOIST AIR...AND STALL ACROSS CWA BY EVENING.
NGM...ON THE OTHER HAND...BRINGS FRONT THROUGH DDC CWA BY 18Z AND
INTO PANHANDLE REGION BY 8/06Z.  FOR NOW...PREFER THE ETA SOLUTION
WITH STRONGER MCS SYSTEM IN EASTERN NEBRASKA...AND WEAKER FORCING IN
CENTRAL KANSAS ALONG FRONTAL BOUNDARY.  WILL INTRODUCE HIGHER
POPS...40 TO 50...TUES NIGHT WHEN I THINK BEST DYNAMICS AND UPPER
SUPPORT COME TOGETHER.

TEMPS WILL BE TRICKY...WITH QUESTION MARK ON TIMING OF COLD FRONTAL
PASSAGE.  WIND SHIFT MAY OCCUR SOME 6 HOURS BEFORE ANY REALIZED COLD
AIR FILTERS IN.  STILL...AIR IS LADENED WITH HIGH RH THROUGH A
FAIRLY DEEP LAYER.  MOISTURE WILL BE RETARDING FACTOR FOR SOUTHWARD
PROGRESSION OF FRONT TUES INTO TUES EVENING.  PLAN ON REDUCING POPS
WED AS FRONT WILL BE LESS DEFINED AND FIRST SHORT WAVE WILL BE NE OF
AREA.

EXTENDED PLAGUED BY WHAT TO DO WITH SUBTROPICAL VORTS...MESOSCALE
BOUNDARYS AND OTHER SUMMER FUN.  BY 48 HRS IT APPEARS SOME KIND OF
SUBTROPICAL VORT WILL ROLL OVER WRN KS.  TIMING COULD BE 12 HRS
EITHER SIDE OF 48 HRS BASED ON MODEL SOLUTION HOWEVER.  BOTTOM
LINE IS THAT WE WILL CONTINUE VERY WEAK NW FLOW ALOFT...SE FLOW IN
THE BOUNDARY LAYER...AND FAIRLY COOL TEMPS ALOFT.  THUS WILL CARRY A
CHANCE FOR TSRA WED NGHT AND AGAIN LATE THU AND THU NGHT.  EVEN
THOUGH THE MRF DOES APPEAR TO BE OVERDONE IN LOWERING HEIGHTS OVER
THE MIDWEST THU INTO FRI...NATURE OF THIS PATTERN WOULD LIKELY
SUPPORT SOME HEIGHT FALLS TO OUR NE...AND THUS WL ALSO GO CHANCE
LATE DAY AND OVERNIGHT FRI...AND HOLD HIGHS IN THE 90S.  MRF IS WAY
OVERDONE ON SAT WITH HEIGHT FALLS...AND WL SIDE MORE WITH UKMET.  WL
GO 95 TO 100 AND ONLY A SLIGHT CHANCE TSRA.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 071/093 068/088 066 234
GCK 071/091 068/086 065 334
EHA 069/090 067/086 065 445
LBL 072/094 069/089 067 234
HYS 072/092 069/086 067 345
P28 074/095 073/089 071 234

.DDC...NONE.

BURKE/MCAVOY