Severe Thunderstorm Warning 178, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
258 PM CDT SUN JUN 21 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS TONIGHT...

WILL USE ETA MODEL THRU THE PERIOD AS IT MATCHES CURRENT WATER
VAPOR LOOP AND VORTS THE BEST. FOR TNGT VORT EVIDENT CROSSING THE
ROCKIES ATTM WITH CNVCTN ALSO FIRING IN UPSLOPE FLOW IN NERN CO.
AN MCS TO LIKELY FORM IN ERN CO AND MOVE ACROSS SWRN KS ON EDGE
OF H7 CAP. THE MAIN QUESTION WHERE IS THAT FINE LINE GOING TO BE
PLUS SOME MOVMNT DUE TO CONVECTION PUSHING SOUTH. FOR NOW THINK
THAT THE MAIN EVENT WILL JUST GRAZE GCK AND DDC TO THE NORTH AND
WILL CARRY 50 POPS NORTH AND 20-30 POPS ELSEWHERE EXCEPT WELL
CAPPED AREA ALONG SRN TIER FROM EHA TO LBL AND P28. WILL ALSO
MENTION SVR WORDING WITH HAIL AND HIGH WINDS THE MAIN THREAT.

FOR MONDAY WINDS BECOME SERLY UPSLOPE AGAIN BUT H7 CAP FCST TO
BE STRONGER FROM 12 TO 14C. WEAKEST CAP AND BEST FORCING IN NORTH SO
WILL CARRY 20 POP NORTH. BOTH FAN GUID AND FWC GUID THE SAME AND
THIS IS AT PREV FCST SO WILL NOT CHANGE.

FOR MONDAY NIGHT AGAIN ANY CNVCTN TO BE NORTH AND WILL GO 20 POP
WHILE REST OF AREA CAPPED. OVERNIGHT LOWS IN MID 60S LOOK GOOD.

ON TUES WILL GO ABOVE GUID ON HIGHS TO AROUND 100. FCST H8 TEMPS
FROM 30 TO 32 WITH SOUTH WINDS. H7 FCST FROM 15 TO 16C SHLD CAP
ALL AREA FROM ANY CNVCTN. MAIN VORT AND FLOW IS IN NERN CO INTO
NEBRASKA.

EXT DISC...EXTENDED PACKAGE TODAY DIFFERS SLIGHTLY FROM PREVIOUS
PACKAGE ON THE STRENGTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH ALONG THE GULF
COAST...BUT THERE IS LITTLE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCE IN THE SUGGESTED
EVOLUTION TOWARD A VERY HOT PERIOD LATE IN THE WEEK. ANTICIPATED
WIDESPREAD CONVECTION TONIGHT MAY SERVE TO MOISTEN THE GROUND AND
REVIVE VEGETATION SUFFICIENTLY TO HOLD TEMPERATURES BELOW
WHAT WAS ANTICIPATED PREVIOUSLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN PART OF THE
FORECAST AREA...BUT THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAINFALL IN THE SOUTHERN
PART OF THE AREA IS MUCH LESS. THE MODELS ALL ARE IN REASONABLE
AGREEMENT IN BUILDING QUITE WARM MID LEVEL TEMPERATURES OVER
SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS THE FIRST PART OF THE WEEK WITH DECREASING MID
LEVEL FLOW AS THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH BEGINS TO BUILD WESTWARD BY
FRIDAY. AT THIS POINT...WILL KEEP THE EXTENDED PACKAGE HOT AND DRY.

.DDC...NONE

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 063/091 064/100 072 310
GCK 061/091 064/099 070 310
EHA 062/093 064/102 068 100
LBL 064/092 064/102 070 100
HYS 062/089 062/100 069 522
P28 070/093 070/101 075 100

KRUSE/01