Severe Thunderstorm Warning 174, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...CORRECTION TO WORDING...
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
310 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 1998

SHORT/LONG TERM DISCUSSION:

FRONTAL BOUNDARY IN OKLAHOMA WILL BE MAIN PLAYER FOR THE NEXT COUPLE
OF DAYS. WITH MOIST UPSLOPE FLOW FORECAST OVER THE CWA AND WITH THE
BOUNDARY FORECAST TO MOVE SLOWLY BACK NORTH...I DECIDED TO PLACE
POPS IN THE FORECAST FOR ALL BUT THE SOUTHWESTERN GROUP. DESPITE
FAIRLY STRONG CAP...I FEEL AS IF CONVECTION WILL GO BY AFTERNOON
OVER NORTHEASTERN COLORADO AND RIDE THE BOUNDARY THROUGHOUT THE
EVENING HOURS. CURRENT THINKING IS THAT STORMS THAT DO FIRE AND RIDE
THE BOUNDARY WILL END UP KEEPING THE BOUNDARY FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE
MODELS PORTRAY. THEREFORE...THIS BOUNDARY WILL REMAIN THE MAIN FOCUS
FOR MONDAY AFTERNOON AS WELL...AND POPS WILL BE INTRODUCED FOR THIS
PERIOD ALSO. MAIN CONCERN FOR TONIGHT WILL BE HEAVY RAINFALL
PRODUCED BY THE THUNDERSTORMS. WITH VERY MOIST INFLOW AVAILABLE FOR
THE THUNDERSTORMS...I WILL MENTION HEAVY RAINFALL POSSIBLE IN THE
ZONES.

HIGH TEMPS WILL BE COOLER TODAY AS A RESULT LOW LEVEL CAA. WINDS
WILL REMAIN EAST TO SOUTHEAST AS WELL.

MCCAMMON

EXTENDED DISCUSSION:  LTR PDS OF FCST A REAL QUANDARY AND WL VERY
MUCH DEPEND UPON WHAT HAPPENS WITH OVRNGT CNVCTN SUNDAY NIGHT AND
POTENTIALLY MONDAY NGT.  ALL XTND MDLS CONT TO DVLP STRONG UPR HIGH
OVR MEXICO NWRD INTO NEW MEXICO AND PUSH THE H5 BAROCLINIC ZONE EVER
NWRD.  THE BONE OF CONTENTION IS WHAT HAPPENS IN THE BNDRY LYR DUE
TO EVAPORATIVE COOLING FM NOCTURNAL CNVCTN.  IF WE GET WIDESPREAD
CNVCTN TNGT THIS BNDRY WL BE REINFORCED BY RAIN COOLED AIR FORCING
THE SFC LOW THAT THE MRF HAS ARND END ON MON MRNG FARTHER SW INTO
THE TX PNHNDL AND MAINTAINING A LOW LVL BNDRY ACRS THE RGN AS A
FOCUS FOR NOCTURNAL CNVCTN AGN MON NGT AND PSBLY EVEN ANOTHER ROUND
TUES NGT.  ADDITIONALLY...THE MODELS KEEP KS IN THE NE QUADRANT OF
THE UPR HIGH AND THUS IN UPR LVL DIFFLUENCE.  THIS IS TYPICAL SUMMER
PTTN FOR NOCTURNAL MCS DVLPMT AND ITS IMPOSSIBLE TO GUESS WHERE.

ATTM DO NOT FEEL CONFIDENT ENOUGH ABOUT THIS AND THUS WL NOT MAKE
ANY CHGS TO GOING XTND FCST.  DAY SHIFT WL GET A BETTER LOOK AT THIS
SITUATION TODAY BUT FOR NOW HAVE ENUF DOUBT ABOUT THIS SITUATION TO
FOREGO ISSUANCE OF ANOTHER SPS ON THE HEAT AND ESPECIALLY THE LACK
OF RAINFALL.

JOHNSON

DDC...NONE

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY. OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 091/063 092/065 101 243
GCK 090/064 091/065 100 243
EHA 094/060 098/064 104 12-
LBL 092/064 092/065 102 243
HYS 089/063 091/064 098 364
P28 094/069 095/070 103 233