Severe Thunderstorm Warning 167, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
320 PM CDT WED JUN 17 1998

...FORECAST CHALLENGE IS POPS FIRST PERIOD AND WIND 2ND...

19Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN EASTERN COLORADO
WITH A DRY LINE JUST EAST OF SCOTT CITY...GCK...LBL LINE. WILL USE ETA
MODEL SYNOPTIC FEATURES AS IT VERIFIED BEST AND STRONGEST AT 50H AT 12Z
WED WITH UPPER LOW ACROSS UTAH. NGM HAS ONCE AGAIN DEVELOPED SFC LOW
WAY TOO FAR NORTH BY THIS EVENING AND AVN WAS TOO WEAK AT 50H AT 12Z
WED INITIALIZATION.

EXPECTING LOW PRESSURE IN COLORADO TO TRACK NORTHEAST ACROSS BAROCLINIC
ZONE IN NW KANSAS THIS EVENING. WITH THIS TRACK BELIEVE WESTERN
COUNTIES WILL STAY DRY SLOTTED BEHIND DRY LINE. 20 TO 30 MPH WINDS
ACROSS WESTERN OK AND TX SHOULD CONTINUE TO PROPEL LINE EAST. WILL GO
20-40 POP TSRA EAST OF AND INCLUDING SCOTT CITY TO MEADE LINE AS COLD
AIR ALOFT AT 50H AND 70H BUSTS THROUGH REGION AFTER 00Z. THE HIGHEST
POP WILL BE IN FAR EAST WHERE THEY WILL HAVE MOISTURE LONGEST. WILL
KEEP WINDY WORDING GOING WITH DECENT GRADIENT CONTINUING AHEAD OF AND
BEHIND COLD FRONT. BELIEVE TEMPS WILL COOL AS LOW AS GUIDANCE AS COOLER
AIR RUSHES IN.

LOOKS LIKE A QUIETIER PERIOD THURSDAY AND FRIDAY AS UPPER AND SFC LOW
TRACK NORTHEAST INTO NORTHERN PLAINS. COLD POOL ALOFT SHOULD TRACK
NORTH ACROSS NEBRASKA AND BARRING SNEAKY NW FLOW S/W'S WILL GO DRY BOTH
DAYS. WILL MENTION PARTLY CLOUDY SKIES TOMORROW ACROSS NORTH CLOSEST TO
COLD POOL. BELIEVE WINDS WILL BE STRONGER THAN WHAT ETA IS INDICATING
AS STRONG DOWNWARD MOTION AND DECENT LAPSE RATES SHOULD PROMOTE MIXING
ALONG WITH DECENT 85H GRADIENT. WILL GO WINDY AND LATER SHIFTS MAY HAVE
TO MONITOR FOR POSSIBLE ADVISORY. WILL GO BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS
TOMORROW DESPITE DOWNSLOPE AND SUN AS THIS IS A VIGOROUS SYSTEM AND THE
MODELS TEND NOT TO CATCH THE MAGNITUDE OF THE COOL AIR.

WILL CONTINUE DRY ON FRIDAY AS HIGH PRESSURE FROM ROCKY MOUNTAINS
SLIDES INTO TEXAS REGION DURING THE DAY. GUIDANCE TEMPS LOOK IN
BALLPARK THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY.

.EXTENDED DISCUSSION
NEITHER THE MRF PACKAGE NOR THE MANUALLY TWEAKED TEMPERATURE PACKAGE
WERE AVAILABLE FOR EXAMINATION TODAY...BUT THE AVN FOLLOWS CLOSELY
ON THE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS MRF IN SUGGESTING A RATHER HOT PERIOD
LARGELY DEVOID OF PRECIPITATION FOR SOUTHWESTERN KANSAS IN THE
EXTENDED PERIOD. THE ECMWF SOLUTION MAINTAINS GREATER AMPLITUDE WITH
THE SHORT WAVE WHICH WAS APPROACHING THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST LATE THIS
AFTERNOON THAN EITHER THE UKMET OR THE OLD MRF AND...CONSEQUENTLY
...CARRIES AN ACTUAL COLD FRONT ACROSS WESTERN KANSAS ON SATURDAY.
AT THIS POINT...THE TREND TOWARD ESTABLISHMENT OF A STRONG
SUBTROPICAL HIGH OVER THE SOUTHERN PLAINS SEEMS PHYSICALLY
REASONABLE...AND BELIEVE THAT THE MORE NORTHERN TRAJECTORY OF THE
WAVE CARRIED ON THE UKMET...12Z AVN...AND OLD MRF IS MORE
REASONABLE.  THE AVN BEGINS TO BUILD AN IMPRESSIVE MID LEVEL WARM
POOL...AS DID THE PREVIOUS MRF RUN...BY SATURDAY.  WITHOUT STRONG
LIFTING...DEVELOPMENT OF CONVECTION UNDER THE WARM POOL WILL BE
DIFFICULT.  THUS...THE EXTENDED PACKAGE WILL CONTINUE THE
HOT...PRECIPITATION-FREE TREND OF THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE.

.DDC...NONE.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 059/085 055/092 065 300
GCK 056/085 054/092 065 100
EHA 055/087 057/095 065 -00
LBL 057/086 056/093 065 100
HYS 059/080 057/090 063 31--
P28 065/085 061/090 069 410

CICCONE