Severe Thunderstorm Warning 165, NWS Dodge City, KS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED TO INCLUDE WND ADVSY AND TORNADO WTCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
410 PM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

...BIGGEST FORECAST CHALLENGE IS FIRST PERIOD POPS...

18Z SFC ANALYSIS INDICATED DRY LINE HAD MOVED THROUGH DDC FOLLOWED BY
DEWPOINTS OF 35-45F WEST OF LINE ALONG WITH WINDY SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS.
WARM FRONT EXTENDED FROM NEAR HLC-HYS SOUTHEAST TO EAST OF KICT.
DEWPOINTS IN THESE AREAS WERE FROM 60-70F AT 18Z. FOCUS THIS EVENING
SHOULD BE ALONG AND AHEAD OF DRY LINE IN EASTERN COUNTIES AND NORTH
CENTRAL COUNTIES ALONG DRY-LINE WARM FRONT INTERSECTION. 18Z ADAP
INDICATING THESE AREAS HAVE THE MOST INSTABILITY AND WEAKEST CAP.
SATELLITE LOOP INDICATING CU FORMING AS WELL WITH A STORM BEGINING TO
GO UP ON THE COMANCHE-BARBER COUNTY LINE. WILL GO 20 POP THIS EVENING
EAST OF A WAKEENEY-DIGHTON-COLDWATER LINE BUT ANY ACTIVITY SHOULD MOVE
EAST QUICKLY IN THE EVENING AS DRY LINE ATTM IS RACING EAST ALREADY IN
THESE COUNTIES WITH WESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW CONTINUING LATER THIS
EVENING ACROSS THE ENTIRE REGION. WILL NOT GO BELOW GUIDANCE ON TEMPS
TONIGHT WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW AND FAIRLY DECENT GRADIENT DEVELOPING IN
WAKE OF SFC AND 85H LOW.

WILL ACCEPT AVN SFC FEATURES THROUGH THE REST OF THIS CYCLE AS IT
VERIFIED BEST AT 18Z TODAY ALONG WITH IT'S SOUNDINGS AT 18Z.
NORTHWESTERLY DOWNSLOPE FLOW SHOULD RESULT TOMORROW AS UPPER LOW
CONTINUES TO SLOWLY PUSH OFF TO THE NORTHEAST. WILL GO MOSTLY SUNNY
TOMORROW AND MOSTLY CLEAR TOMORROW NIGHT IN THIS FLOW WITH WARMER AVN
TEMPS REASONABLE DURING SUNDAY AS CAA WILL NOT BE STRONG AND 85H TEMPS
ARE STILL HIGH BEHIND SYSTEM. LOOKING FOR NEXT S/W DROPPING SOUTHEAST
IN NW FLOW TO STAY NORTH OF CWA ACROSS NE ALONG WITH IT'S ATTENDANT
COOLER AIR ALOFT AND INSTABILITY. WILL MENTION WINDY DURING ACROSS
EASTERN 2/3'RDS OF CWA DUE TO PROXIMITY TO DEPARTING LOW.

AVN DEPICTS REGION BETWEEN SYSTEMS ON MONDAY WITH DOWNSLOPE FLOW
CONTINUING...WILL THUS CONTINUE DRY. WILL NOT STRAY FAR FROM GUIDANCE
TEMPS AT THIS TIME AS THEY ARE CLOSE AND LOOK IN BALLPARK ON MONDAY.

.DDC...WINDY ADVISORY UNTIL 9 PM BOUNDED BY AN AREA FROM SCOTT
CITY...LIBERAL...COLDWATER...HAYS...TO WAKEENEY.
KSZ-030-031-043-046-062>065-075>079-KSZ080-085>089.
...TORNADO WATCH FOR ELLIS COUNTY UNTIL 10 PM INCLUDING THE CITY OF
HAYS KSZ031.

PRELIMINARY GUIDANCE FOR COORDINATION ONLY.  OFFICIAL FORECASTS ARE
CONTAINED WITHIN THE TOPZFPDDC.

DDC 059/087 053/080 055 111
GCK 055/087 052/080 053 -11
EHA 057/090 053/082 055 0--
LBL 058/089 053/080 054 ---
HYS 060/086 053/080 054 211
P28 065/090 059/084 059 211

CICCONE

KSZ030-031-043>046-061>066-074>081-084>090-140600-

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DODGE CITY KS
1107 AM CDT SAT JUN 13 1998

SYNOPSIS: A WARM FRONT FROM NEAR GOODLAND SOUTHEAST TO NEAR MEDICINE
LODGE WILL COMBINE WITH A STRONG DRY LINE DEVELOPING IN SOUTHWEST
KANSAS.  THE RESULT WILL BE POOLING OF HEAT AND MOISTURE OVER MUCH
OF CENTRAL KANSAS.  THE WARM MOIST AIR WILL BECOME VERY UNSTABLE BY
LATER THIS AFTERNOON INTO THE EVENING HOURS.  AT THAT TIME...A
STRONG UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL MOVE ACROSS THE REGION FROM THE
SOUTHWEST AND SHOULD TRIGGER SOME AREAS OF SCATTERED TO WIDELY
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG AND EAST OF THE DRY LINE.

WIND SPEEDS AND DIRECTIONS THROUGH THE DEPTH OF THE ATMOSPHERE
INDICATE THAT STORMS WHICH DEVELOP NEAR THE POINT WHERE THE DRY LINE
AND THE WARM FRONT INTERSECT COULD WELL BECOME SEVERE...POSSIBLY
EVEN DEVELOPING TORNADOES.  CURRENTLY THIS AREA APPEARS TO BE ALONG
AND EAST OF A COLDWATER...KINSLEY...WAKEENEY LINE.  FURTHER UPDATES
WILL BE ISSUED AS THE SITUATION CLARIFIES.

A NUMBER OF SPOTTERS WILL BE NEEDED LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO EARLY
EVENING ALONG AND EAST OF A COLDWATER...KINSELY...WAKEENEY LINE.

JOHNSON