Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998

Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS State College, PA

May 16, 1998McKean County, Pennsylvania

NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 1998, 4:16 PM EDT for McKean County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 64 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.

The area

The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.

The facts

Issued
May 16, 1998, 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC)
Expired
May 16, 1998, 5:20 PM EDT
In force
64 min
Issued by
NWS State College, PA
Area
Whole counties

County McKean County, PA

The radar

The State College radar (KCCX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.

Open the radar archive at this moment

The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.

What was reported inside it

TimeReportWhereRemark
May 16, 5:15 PM EDTThunderstorm Wind 51Kane, PAA tree was blown down in Kane, and pea size hail was reported south of Bradford.

NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.

The nearest sounding before it

Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.

Skew-T log-pSkew-T log-p diagram, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 1998-05-16Temperature and dew point through the depth of the atmosphere, with the mixed-layer parcel. CAPE 8 joules per kilogram.LCLLFCEL10008507005003002001001 km2 km3 km6 km9 km12 km15 km-30°-20°-10°0°10°20°30°40°
Temperature in red, dew point in green, the mixed-layer parcel dashed.
HodographHodograph, Buffalo Intl Airport, NY at 12:00Z on 1998-05-16The wind through the lowest 10 kilometers. Zero to 1 km storm-relative helicity 43 square meters per square second.1939Sfc1 km3 km6 km9 kmRMLM
The wind turning with height, colored by layer: ground to 1 km, 1 to 3 km, 3 to 6 km, 6 to 10 km.
Mixed-layer CAPE
8 J/kg
Mixed-layer CIN
-418 J/kg
Mixed-layer LCL
1840 m above ground
0-6 km bulk shear
21 kt
0-1 km storm-relative helicity
43 m²/s²
0-3 km storm-relative helicity
23 m²/s²
Significant tornado parameter
0.0
Supercell composite
0.0

Open this sounding in Storm Lab

The text

As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.

441 
WUUS01 KCTP 162015 RRA
SVRCTP
PAC083-162120-

BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
416 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA

* UNTIL 520 PM EDT

* AT 414 PM EDT... STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE
  THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARREN OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF
  MARSHBURG MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH.

* THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR...
  MARSHBURG                      BY 420 PM EDT
  MOUNT JEWETT                   BY 435 PM EDT
  LEWIS RUN                      BY 440 PM EDT
  HUTCHINS                       BY 440 PM EDT
  BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT      BY 440 PM EDT

DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM.
GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS

NICOSIA/EVANS

What forecasters said that day

The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.

NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 3:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.

Area forecast discussion, May 16, 3:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998

...WORK ZONES SENT TO PIT/PHL AT 245 PM VIA ADM/S...

...DISCUSSION...
DECIDED TO GO WITH 40 CHC POPS FOR TSRA WRN ZONES AND SHRA/TSRA IN
ERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. WENT WITH EVENING SHRA/TSRA WRN ZONES.
LATEST KPBZ AND KCCX 88D LOOPS SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF SCTRD CNVTN
FORMING FM NW PA SW TO SERN OH. ACVTY WAS LINING UP WITH THE SHARP
MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS ACRS ERN OH IN ASSCTN WITH A LL FRNTL
BNDRY. DRIER AIR WILL CONT TO WORK E ACRS PA THIS EVE IN ASSCTN WITH
A SMALL LOBE OF UPR LVL PV AIR THAT STRETCHED S FM THE MAIN PV CORE
N OF THE UPR GREAT LAKES. THIS LOBE PASSES ACRS PA TONIGHT AND
FORCES THE FRNT THRU PA W/ STRG LL DRY ADVECTION ON W-NW WINDS. IN
ADVANCE OF THE WAVE/SFC FRNT... LL MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING INTO PA ON
SW WINDS WITH INCREASING LL CONV EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANLYSIS. THE AMS
WAS BECMG QUITE UNSTBL WITH AFTRN HEATING AS WELL. THUS WITH LL
MOISTURE INCREASING NR TIME OF MAX HEATING... CAPES ON MODIFIED AM
SOUNDINGS RUNNING BTWN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. FOR MUCH OF THE AFTRN...
ACVTY REMAINED CAPPED OVER THE ERN OH VLLY DUE TO WARM MID-LVL
TEMPS. THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS LL FRNT WILL BE
ENCOUNTERING COLDER MID-LVL TEMPS ALOFT OVR PA CLSR TO THE UPR RDG
AXIS. THUS... SCTRD STORMS SHUD CONT TO FIRE AS THIS MOISTURE WORKS
E OF THE CAP INTO CNTRL PA. TIMING DURING THE LATE AFTRN/EVE HOURS IN
WRN ZONES AND MID EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN ZONES. WENT WITH CHC
SHRA OR TSRA IN ERN ZONES SINCE ACVTY COMES THRU LATER IN EVE AFTER
MAX DAYTIME TEMPS.

AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR... WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK AND
MID-LVL TEMPS ARE WARM. HOWEVER WITH A HUGE SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO THE
W OF WHERE THE STORMS WILL DVLP... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRGR
STORMS THAT GET WIND/HAIL ENHANCEMENT FM EVAP COOLING.

CD FRNT SWEEPS BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR A SFC RDG TO BUILD
ACRS OH VLLY SUNDAY. PA FALLS UNDER A NW FLO OF QUITE DRY AIR.
POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME CU FORMATION ONLY IN FAR ERN/SRN ZONES
SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE DRY NW FLO TO GET ESTABLISHED
SUNDAY AND LWR DWPTS. ANY AM CU THAT FORMS REST OF ZONES SHUD
QUICKLY MIX OUT. WENT WITH TEMPS A BIT LWR THAN MOS. LIKE AVN
NUMBERS BETTER.

SFC HIGH REMAINS W OF REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. WENT FOR
SOME PC SKIES LATE NW PA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MID-UPR CLDS ADVECTING
DOWN INTO PA FM UPSTREAM MCS DVLPMENTS OVR THE GREAT LAKES.

MONDAY IS A QUESTION MARK TO ME. MOIST WRLY RETURN FLO ON THE N-SIDE
OF THE SFC HI SETS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC SUN NGT/MON
WITH THE AVN HINTING AT DECENT LL MOISTURE FEED INTO PA ON W WINDS.
AVN SHOWS LI/S DROP TO -3C BY LATE IN THE DAY OVR MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN
PA. GIVEN STRG UPR CONFLUENCE OVR NEW ENGLAND AND AN IMPLIED JET
STREAK CIRC... THERE CUD BE A LL BNDRY SOMEWHERE IN PA TO FOCUS
SHRA/TSRA. I THINK THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER
SHIFTS... STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINITY AND COORD WITH PIT ABT LEAVING
PRECIP OUT MONDAY IN WRN ZONES.

NICOSIA

In the hours before

Special weather statement, May 16, 11:56 AM EDT, 4 hours 20 minutes before
PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033-170400-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998

...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS
EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA...

...FORECAST DETAILS...

SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS
THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY
WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL.

...WEATHER SYNOPSIS...

A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH
WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE
FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR
MASS IN PLACE OVER PENNSYLVANIA.

...CALL TO ACTION...

SKYWARN ACTIVATION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED.

STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... OR YOUR FAVORITE TV... CABLE TV
OR RADIO STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR
LATER STATEMENTS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE WILL
KEEP YOU UPDATED.

NICOSIA

The office that day

Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.

IssuedProductOfficeCountiesLasted
May 16, 5:08 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSomerset62 min
May 16, 5:41 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPClearfield49 min
May 16, 6:12 PM EDTSevere Thunderstorm WarningCTPSomerset48 min
May 16, 6:35 PM EDTFlash Flood WarningCTPSomerset6 hr

Nearby

Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998

Sources

The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.