Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in 1998
Severe Thunderstorm Warning 29, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this severe thunderstorm warning at May 16, 1998, 4:16 PM EDT for McKean County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 64 min. 1 report came from inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named, with what was reported inside it.
The facts
- Issued
- May 16, 1998, 4:16 PM EDT (20:16 UTC)
- Expired
- May 16, 1998, 5:20 PM EDT
- In force
- 64 min
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Whole counties
County McKean County, PA
The radar
The State College radar (KCCX), 109 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:17 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
What was reported inside it
| Time | Report | Where | Remark |
|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 5:15 PM EDT | Thunderstorm Wind 51 | Kane, PA | A tree was blown down in Kane, and pea size hail was reported south of Bradford. |
NCEI Storm Data entries that began inside the alert's area while it was in force. Before 2003 the local storm report archive is thin, so this is the record of what happened rather than what was phoned in.
The nearest sounding before it
Buffalo Intl Airport, NY (KBUF), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 125 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -418 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 1840 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 21 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- 43 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 23 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
441 WUUS01 KCTP 162015 RRA SVRCTP PAC083-162120- BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 416 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... MCKEAN COUNTY IN NORTHWESTERN PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 520 PM EDT * AT 414 PM EDT... STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM 14 MILES SOUTHEAST OF WARREN OR 9 MILES SOUTHWEST OF MARSHBURG MOVING EAST AT 15 MPH. * THE SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WILL BE NEAR... MARSHBURG BY 420 PM EDT MOUNT JEWETT BY 435 PM EDT LEWIS RUN BY 440 PM EDT HUTCHINS BY 440 PM EDT BRADFORD REGIONAL AIRPORT BY 440 PM EDT DAMAGING WINDS AND LARGE HAIL ARE LIKELY IN THE PATH OF THIS STORM. GO INSIDE A STURDY BUILDING AND STAY AWAY FROM WINDOWS NICOSIA/EVANS
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this severe thunderstorm warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this severe thunderstorm warning went out at May 16, 3:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 16, 3:15 PM EDT, 1 hour 1 minute before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 315 PM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998 ...WORK ZONES SENT TO PIT/PHL AT 245 PM VIA ADM/S... ...DISCUSSION... DECIDED TO GO WITH 40 CHC POPS FOR TSRA WRN ZONES AND SHRA/TSRA IN ERN ZONES FOR TONIGHT. WENT WITH EVENING SHRA/TSRA WRN ZONES. LATEST KPBZ AND KCCX 88D LOOPS SHOWS THE BEGINNINGS OF SCTRD CNVTN FORMING FM NW PA SW TO SERN OH. ACVTY WAS LINING UP WITH THE SHARP MOISTURE GRADIENT THAT EXISTS ACRS ERN OH IN ASSCTN WITH A LL FRNTL BNDRY. DRIER AIR WILL CONT TO WORK E ACRS PA THIS EVE IN ASSCTN WITH A SMALL LOBE OF UPR LVL PV AIR THAT STRETCHED S FM THE MAIN PV CORE N OF THE UPR GREAT LAKES. THIS LOBE PASSES ACRS PA TONIGHT AND FORCES THE FRNT THRU PA W/ STRG LL DRY ADVECTION ON W-NW WINDS. IN ADVANCE OF THE WAVE/SFC FRNT... LL MOISTURE WAS ADVECTING INTO PA ON SW WINDS WITH INCREASING LL CONV EVIDENT ON THE SFC ANLYSIS. THE AMS WAS BECMG QUITE UNSTBL WITH AFTRN HEATING AS WELL. THUS WITH LL MOISTURE INCREASING NR TIME OF MAX HEATING... CAPES ON MODIFIED AM SOUNDINGS RUNNING BTWN 2000 AND 3000 J/KG. FOR MUCH OF THE AFTRN... ACVTY REMAINED CAPPED OVER THE ERN OH VLLY DUE TO WARM MID-LVL TEMPS. THE MOISTURE SURGE AHEAD OF THIS LL FRNT WILL BE ENCOUNTERING COLDER MID-LVL TEMPS ALOFT OVR PA CLSR TO THE UPR RDG AXIS. THUS... SCTRD STORMS SHUD CONT TO FIRE AS THIS MOISTURE WORKS E OF THE CAP INTO CNTRL PA. TIMING DURING THE LATE AFTRN/EVE HOURS IN WRN ZONES AND MID EVENING/OVERNIGHT IN THE ERN ZONES. WENT WITH CHC SHRA OR TSRA IN ERN ZONES SINCE ACVTY COMES THRU LATER IN EVE AFTER MAX DAYTIME TEMPS. AS FOR THE POTENTIAL FOR SVR... WIND FIELDS ARE RATHER WEAK AND MID-LVL TEMPS ARE WARM. HOWEVER WITH A HUGE SOURCE OF DRY AIR TO THE W OF WHERE THE STORMS WILL DVLP... POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR A FEW STRGR STORMS THAT GET WIND/HAIL ENHANCEMENT FM EVAP COOLING. CD FRNT SWEEPS BY LATE TONIGHT AND ALLOWS FOR A SFC RDG TO BUILD ACRS OH VLLY SUNDAY. PA FALLS UNDER A NW FLO OF QUITE DRY AIR. POTENTIAL EXISTS FOR SOME CU FORMATION ONLY IN FAR ERN/SRN ZONES SINCE IT WILL TAKE AWHILE FOR THE DRY NW FLO TO GET ESTABLISHED SUNDAY AND LWR DWPTS. ANY AM CU THAT FORMS REST OF ZONES SHUD QUICKLY MIX OUT. WENT WITH TEMPS A BIT LWR THAN MOS. LIKE AVN NUMBERS BETTER. SFC HIGH REMAINS W OF REGION SUNDAY NGT WITH MAINLY CLR SKIES. WENT FOR SOME PC SKIES LATE NW PA GIVEN POTENTIAL FOR MID-UPR CLDS ADVECTING DOWN INTO PA FM UPSTREAM MCS DVLPMENTS OVR THE GREAT LAKES. MONDAY IS A QUESTION MARK TO ME. MOIST WRLY RETURN FLO ON THE N-SIDE OF THE SFC HI SETS UP INTO THE GREAT LAKES/MID-ATLANTIC SUN NGT/MON WITH THE AVN HINTING AT DECENT LL MOISTURE FEED INTO PA ON W WINDS. AVN SHOWS LI/S DROP TO -3C BY LATE IN THE DAY OVR MUCH OF CNTRL/SRN PA. GIVEN STRG UPR CONFLUENCE OVR NEW ENGLAND AND AN IMPLIED JET STREAK CIRC... THERE CUD BE A LL BNDRY SOMEWHERE IN PA TO FOCUS SHRA/TSRA. I THINK THIS WILL BE SOMETHING TO WATCH FOR LATER SHIFTS... STILL TOO MUCH UNCERTAINITY AND COORD WITH PIT ABT LEAVING PRECIP OUT MONDAY IN WRN ZONES. NICOSIA
In the hours before
Special weather statement, May 16, 11:56 AM EDT, 4 hours 20 minutes before
PAZ004-005-010-017-024-033-170400- SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1156 AM EDT SAT MAY 16 1998 ...STRONG THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND THIS EVENING OVER THE MOUNTAINS OF WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA... ...FORECAST DETAILS... SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE INTO THE EVENING HOURS. ANY THUNDERSTORM THAT FORMS THIS AFTERNOON OR EVENING WILL HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO PRODUCE GUSTY WINDS TO 40 MPH AND SMALL HAIL. ...WEATHER SYNOPSIS... A COLD FRONT MOVING THROUGH OHIO EARLY THIS AFTERNOON WILL REACH WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA BY THIS EVENING. THIS FRONT WILL SET THE STAGE FOR SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS AS IT PUSHES INTO THE WARM AND HUMID AIR MASS IN PLACE OVER PENNSYLVANIA. ...CALL TO ACTION... SKYWARN ACTIVATION PROBABLY WILL NOT BE NEEDED. STAY TUNED TO NOAA WEATHER RADIO... OR YOUR FAVORITE TV... CABLE TV OR RADIO STATION FOR THE LATEST WEATHER INFORMATION. LISTEN FOR LATER STATEMENTS. THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE WILL KEEP YOU UPDATED. NICOSIA
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 16, 5:08 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Somerset | 62 min |
| May 16, 5:41 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Clearfield | 49 min |
| May 16, 6:12 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Somerset | 48 min |
| May 16, 6:35 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Somerset | 6 hr |
Nearby
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998Every severe thunderstorm warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; verification from NCEI's Storm Data; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.