Severe Thunderstorm Warning 181, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1005 AM EDT TUE AUG 18 1998

...WRKZNS SENT TO PHL/PIT VIA ADMCTP WITH THE MAJOR CHANGES BEING
1)  INCREASED POPS ACROSS THE CENT AND NORTH...AND
2)  TIMING OF CLEARING AND MUCH LESS HUMID CONDITIONS ACROSS THE NW
    2/3S

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER VORT MAX CURRENTLY NEAR KBUF AS DEPICTED BY WTR VAPOR LOOP
APPEARS TO BE A FEW HRS AHEAD (EAST) OF MODEL POSITIONS AT 12Z...MVG
EAST AROUND 30 KTS.

SFC COLD FRONT ON A LINE FROM KBUF TO KERI AND KCLE AT 13Z WILL
PROGRESS STEADILY SE ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL PA DURING THE EARLY
TO MID AFTERNOON REACHING THE LWR SUSQ VALLEY BETWEEN 21Z AND 23Z.

QPF NOT IMPRESSIVE AT ALL BEING GENERALLY .10 OR LESS ON ETA/NGM
WITH THE PRIMARY LARGE SCALE DYNAMIC LIFT SCOOTING OFF TO THE NORTH
ACROSS CENTRAL NEW YORK. SFC BASED CAPES AOA 1000 J/KG PROGGED BY
THE ETA CROSS THE CENT AND LWR SUSQ WILL ACT TO ENHANCE THE POTENCY
OF THE CONVECTION AS IT MOVES INTO THE CONVERGENCE ALONG THE LEE
TROUGH IN THAT AREAS. NOT OUT OF THE QUESTION TO SEE A BKN SQUALL
LINE WITH LOCAL .50 QPF ACROSS THE SE 1/3 OF THE STATE DURING THE
MID/LT AFTERNOON.  HOWEVER...LIMITED SUNSHINE/WEAK LLVL THETA-E
CONVERGENCE WILL BE AN INHIBITING FACTOR FOR SIGNIF RAIN.

SPRAWLING 1030 MB SFC SOUTHWEST OF JAMES BAY WILL MOVE ESE BRINGING
AN ALMOST FALL-LIKE AIRMASS INTO THE REGION FOR LATER TNGT THROUGH
THURS...WITH PLEASANT/LOW HUMIDITY.

NOTCHED UP TEMPS A FEW DEG ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES...OTHERWSIE
PREV FCST MAXS LOOK FINE.

WENT FOR CATEGORICAL (OCCASIONAL) SHRA/TSRA ACROSS THE NCENT/NE MTNS
THIS AFTERNOON...BUT TAPERED POPS TO ONLY 20 ACROSS THE NW MTNS IN
LINE WITH CFROPA TIMING. RAISED POPS A TAD (TO LIKELY) ACROSS THE
CENTRAL THIRD OF THE CWA AND KEPT WORDING AS SCATTERED ACROSS THE
SOUTH.

.CTP...NONE.

LAMBERT