Severe Thunderstorm Warning 160, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
207 PM EDT FRI JUL 17 1998

...ZONES TO BE SENT TO PIT/PHL VIA ADMCTP BY 230 PM...

...DISCUSSION...

MAIN FCST PROBLM...HOW TO DEAL W/PCPN TONIGHT.

SCT TSRA POPPING ATTM ACRS CENT MTNS. STRMS FEEDING ON UPR 60S AND
LWR 70S DWPTS...AND GOOD DRY AIR INTRUSION AT MID LVLS. SPEED
MAX/JET STREAK EVIDENT ON WV LOOP FM SW TO NE DIRECTLY OVR CENT PA
ATTM...AS FNT ANALYZED EARLIER ON SFC ANALYSIS IN OH/WRN PA HAS
MOVD E. FNT SHWS UP BEST IN SFC WND FIELD.

SFC DRY AIR OVR CENT OH EARLIER HAS NOT YET MADE IT INTO WRN PA. WV
ALSO DEPICTS STRONG VORT MAX OVR GRT LKS MOVG ESE INTO SRN ONT.
ALL PROGGED TO PUSH ACRS PA THIS AFT/EVE. GETTING PETTY ON THE
TIMING MAY NOT BE EASY...SO WL PROB LEAVE TIMING OUT IN NRN ZNS.
SRN ZNS WL LIKELY HAVE DISTINCT END...AS GRT LKS S/W ENERGY STAYS TO
N OF THOSE CTYS.

LIKED ETA SOLN BETTER TDY...AS BIG THREE MODELS INITIALIZED
SIMILARLY. BUT...NGM PUMPS OUT PCPN DURING THE DAY SAT OVR WRN PA.
ETA POOLS THTE ARND BWI/LWR SUSQ IN ERLY PDS. THIS SEEMS VERY LIKELY
AS FNT DRAGS E/W LATER TNGHT S OF MASON/DIXON LN.

COOLER...BUT NOT MUCH...ON SAT AND HUMIDITIES MUCH LWR. TRAJECTORIES
FOR SAT COMING DOWN FM LK SUP/E WISCONSIN  LCL CU RULE INDICATES
VERY STABLE LWR LYRS ON SAT OVER FA W/SCT CU AT BEST. MO SUNNY WRDNG
BEST. TEMPS W/SS WILL RISE WELL. MDL SNDG FOR UNV GIVES MAX IN LWR
80S (HIER THAN FWC). SAME DEAL FOR IPT GIVES BARELY COOLER VALUES
THAN DO FWC/FAN THO. WL LIKELY GO W/FAN AS STRONG JULY SS FACTORS
BIG. POPS UNLIKELY IN LAST THREE PDS...BUT LIKELY TO NEARLY CAT IN
FIRST PD.

AGREE W/PITS SFD COMMENT ON LEAVING OUT POPS FOR SUNDAY ATTM...BUT
MOIST RETURN FLOW IS RAPID. THIS DRY SHOT WILL BE SHORT-LIVED.

.CTP...NONE

DANGELO

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