Severe Thunderstorm Warning 124, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
232 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998.

...WRKZNS AVBL BY 250 PM...

...DISCUSSION...
JUST GOT BOXED. REWORKING ZONES TO REFLECT.

LATEST SAT/OBS SHOW CONVECTION ACROSS LE IN SRN ONTARIO ALONG OLD
OUTFLOW BNDRY. LK BRZ AND TSTMS MAY FORM ON SRN SHORE AS WELL (PER
BUF)...HOWEVER SW FLOW FAIRLY CONSISTENT. DWPTS HAVE RISEN TO MID
70S IN A FEW LOCATIONS ACRS WRN PA. LAPS DATA SHWS GOOD SFC CONV
RIGHT OVER CENTRAL PA MTNS...AS OLD OUTFLOW FM STORMS IN CENT
NY/NERN PA INTERACTS W/ MEAN SW FLOW. MAKES WORDING FOR FIRST PD
TOUGH...WL THEREFORE KEEP GENERAL TERMS...AND NOT TRY TO TIME.

ETA MUCH MORE CONSISTENT WITH PAST RUNS THAN NGM. AVN SLIDING CLOSER
TO ETA...BUT STILL DRIER. NGM INCONSISTENT W/PAST 12Z RUN. WUD
PREFER TO GO W/ ETA/AVN SOLNS.

LARGE SFC HI PRES OVR E U.S. WL BREAK DOWN AS A COLD FNT MOVES THRU
LATE FRI/ERLY SAT. FRONT SEEMS TO HANG IN THE AREA OR JUST TO THE
SOUTH OF OUR CWA. SOME RELIEF IN STORE FOR SAT AS DWPNTS PROGGD TO
GO BACK INTO MID/UPR 60S ALL OF THE AREA. BUT...CHC POPS MAY BE IN
ORDER (THNX PHL FOR COORD) FOR SRN GROUPS. LOOK TO DROP POPS FOR
NRN/CENT GROUPS FOR SAT.  WL TRY TO WORD ZNS AS SUCH.

PATTERN LOOKS TO REMAIN SIMILAR FOR NXT 4-5 DAYS AS DEEP UPR LOW
MOVE INTO PAC NW. LOOKS TO BREAK DOWN LATER THIS COMING WEEK.

DANGELO

PAZ027-028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063>066-260600-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- HEAT ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1050 AM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...A HEAT ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY
REGION FOR THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY...

THE HEAT ADVISORY INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

DAUPHIN...LEBANON...CUMBERLAND...ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.

...HEAT INDICES DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON WILL ALSO REACH NEAR 100
DEGREES FROM THE WEST BRANCH AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEYS SOUTH
INTO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...

...FORECAST DETAILS...
OVER THE ADVISORY AREA...TEMPERATURES THIS AFTERNOON WILL CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS. THE COMBINATION OF THE HEAT
AND HUMIDITY WILL BRING THE HEAT INDEX VALUES TO AROUND 105 FOR ONE
TO TWO HOURS THIS AFTERNOON. IT WILL REMAIN MUGGY TONIGHT WITH HEAT
INDEX VALUES DROPPING TO NEAR 80 IN THE MORE URBAN AREAS...LIKE
HARRISBURG. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL AGAIN CLIMB TO AROUND 105 FRIDAY
AFTERNOON...AS THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY RETURN.

OVER THE WEST BRANCH AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEYS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...IT WILL ALSO BE VERY HUMID TODAY AND
FRIDAY WITH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING TO BETWEEN 90 AND 95 IN THE
AFTERNOON. HEAT INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100 FOR AN HOUR OR TWO
THIS AFTERNOON AND AGAIN FRIDAY AFTERNOON.

...WEATHER SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE AREA OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE OFF THE SOUTHEAST
UNITED STATES COAST TODAY THROUGH FRIDAY. THE SOUTHWESTERLY WIND
FLOW ON THE WESTERN SIDE OF THAT HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BRING HOT
AND HUMID AIR UP INTO PENNSYLVANIA. A COLD FRONT WILL BE DROPPING TO
THE SOUTH OF THE REGION FRIDAY NIGHT AND EARLY SATURDAY...AND THAT
WILL BRING SOME RELIEF FROM THE HEAT AND HUMIDITY.

...OTHER INFORMATION...
THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES ON THE BODY. HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
BODY CRAMPS ARE LIKELY WHEN HEAT INDICES ARE AT AND ABOVE 105
DEGREES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES...HEAT
STROKE IS POSSIBLE.

IF YOU ARE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE TODAY...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT. AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES TO REPLACE FLUIDS. TRY TO SCHEDULE
ANY OUTDOOR WORK FOR THE EARLY MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENTLY CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...SMALL CHILDREN...INDIVIDUALS IN
POOR HEALTH AND EVEN YOUR PETS...AS THEY ARE MORE AT RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-252305-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE LATER TODAY...AS THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. LATER ON...THAT THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD.

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-252305-

SEVERE WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
1113 AM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA IS UNDER A SLIGHT RISK FOR SEVERE
THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON INTO TONIGHT.

CONDITIONS WILL BECOME UNSTABLE LATER TODAY...AS THE HOT AND HUMID
AIR IN PLACE OVER THE REGION WILL BE PRIMED FOR THUNDERSTORMS. THE
THUNDERSTORMS THAT FORM WILL LIKELY BEGIN LATE THIS AFTERNOON OVER
NORTHERN PARTS OF CENTRAL PA. LATER ON...THAT THREAT FOR SEVERE
WEATHER WILL EXTEND SOUTHWARD.

PLEASE REMEMBER THAT SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN
EXCESS OF 55 MPH...DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY
HEAVY RAIN.

SKYWARN SPOTTER ACTIVATION MAY BE NEEDED LATER THIS AFTERNOON OR
THIS EVENING.  PLEASE STAY TUNED TO THIS STATION FOR FURTHER
INFORMATION ON THIS POTENTIAL SEVERE WEATHER SITUATION.

DANGELO

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049-260040-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9 PM... WARREN... MCKEAN...
POTTER... TIOGA...ELK...CAMERON...CLINTON... LYCOMING... SULLIVAN...
CLEARFIELD... AND CENTRE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRADFORD...
WILLIAMSPORT...LOCK HAVEN...CLEARFIELD...AND STATE COLLEGE.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK SOUTH TOWARD A VERY HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE NEW YORK / PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BY 4 PM...THEN
MOVE SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  A
WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THOSE KINDS OF STORMS. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSEVERED OR BECOMES
IMMINENT...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

MSE

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-037-041-042-045-046-049-260040-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
255 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT UNTIL 9 PM FOR NORTHERN
AND CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA...

A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES
IN NORTH CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA UNTIL 9 PM... WARREN... MCKEAN...
POTTER... TIOGA...ELK...CAMERON...CLINTON... LYCOMING... SULLIVAN...
CLEARFIELD... AND CENTRE. THIS INCLUDES THE CITIES OF BRADFORD...
WILLIAMSPORT...LOCK HAVEN...CLEARFIELD...AND STATE COLLEGE.

THUNDERSTORMS DEVELOPING OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK THIS AFTERNOON WILL
TRACK SOUTH TOWARD A VERY HUMID...UNSTABLE AIRMASS LOCATED ACROSS
THE NORTHERN HALF OF PENNSYLVANIA. THE STORMS WILL BEGIN TO AFFECT
THE AREA AROUND THE NEW YORK / PENNSYLVANIA BORDER BY 4 PM...THEN
MOVE SOUTH TOWARD CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA EARLY THIS EVENING.

SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS PRODUCE DAMAGING WIND IN EXCESS OF 55 MPH...
DESTRUCTIVE HAIL...DEADLY LIGHTNING...AND VERY HEAVY RAIN.  A
WATCH MEANS THAT CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT OF
THOSE KINDS OF STORMS. IF SEVERE WEATHER IS OBSEVERED OR BECOMES
IMMINENT...WARNINGS WILL BE ISSUED.

MSE

PAZ027-028-035-036-045-046-049>053-056-057-059-063>066-260900-

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT- HEAT ADVISORY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
310 PM EDT THU JUN 25 1998

...A HEAT ADVISORY WILL BE IN EFFECT FOR THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA
VALLEY REGION ON FRIDAY...

THE HEAT ADVISORY INCLUDES THE FOLLOWING COUNTIES...

DAUPHIN...LEBANON...CUMBERLAND...ADAMS...YORK AND LANCASTER.

ACROSS THE ADVISORY AREA...TEMPERATURES WILL ONCE AGAIN CLIMB WELL
INTO THE 90S WITH HIGH HUMIDITY LEVELS TOMORROW. THE HEAT AND
HUMIDITY WILL COMBINE TO MAKE IT FEEL LIKE 100 OR 105 DEGREES DURING
THE AFTERNOON ON FRIDAY.

OVER THE WEST BRANCH AND MIDDLE SUSQUEHANNA VALLEYS AND
SOUTH-CENTRAL MOUNTAINS...IT WILL ALSO STAY HUMID FOR FRIDAY. HEAT
INDEX VALUES WILL REACH NEAR 100 FOR A FEW HOURS DURING THE
AFTERNOON.

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE DROPPING SOUTHWARD FROM WESTERN
NEW YORK STATE INTO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TONIGHT.  HIS COULD BRING
SOME RELIEF TO THE NORTHERN PARTS OF THE STATE. BUT...SOUTHERN
SECTIONS OF THE COMMONWEALTH WILL REMAIN MUGGY THROUGH THE NIGHT.
SOME OF THOSE THUNDERSTORMS COULD REACH INTO THE SOUTH CENTRAL
MOUNTAINS AND THE LOWER SUSQUEHANNA VALLEY LATER TONIGHT.

...DEFINITION...
THE HEAT INDEX IS A MEASURE OF THE COMBINED EFFECT OF HIGH
TEMPERATURES AND HIGH HUMIDITIES ON THE BODY. HEAT EXHAUSTION AND
BODY CRAMPS ARE LIKELY WHEN HEAT INDICES ARE AT AND ABOVE 105
DEGREES. PROLONGED EXPOSURE TO HEAT INDICES OVER 105 DEGREES...HEAT
STROKE IS POSSIBLE.

...CAUTIONS...
IF YOU WILL BE WORKING OR PLAYING OUTSIDE...TAKE FREQUENT BREAKS
FROM THE HEAT. AVOID STRENUOUS OUTDOOR ACTIVITY. DRINK PLENTY OF
WATER OR NON-ALCOHOLIC BEVERAGES TO REPLACE FLUIDS. TRY TO SCHEDULE
ANY OUTDOOR WORK FOR THE EARLY MORNING OR LATE EVENING HOURS.
FREQUENTLY CHECK ON THE ELDERLY...SMALL CHILDREN...INDIVIDUALS IN
POOR HEALTH AND EVEN YOUR PETS...AS THEY ARE MORE AT RISK FOR
HEAT-RELATED ILLNESS.

DANGELO