Severe Thunderstorm Warning 12, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
250 PM EDT WED APR 8 1998

...SUGGESTIONS...
PHL AND PIT...WORK ZONES SENT. BELIEVE THAT MOST OF THE EASTERN HALF
OF PA SHOULD BE ESSENTIALLY DRY AFTER THE CURRENT ROUND OF SHRA/TSRA
CLEARS THE SUSQ VALLEYS EARLY THIS EVENING.

PIT...WILL SEE A FEW HOUR LULL IN THE PRECIP LATE THIS AFTERNOON
BEFORE THE CURRENT CONVECTION FORMING ACROSS CENTRAL OHIO MOVES
INTO THE WESTERN CWA ZONES AROUND 00Z. PER OUR TELCO...INTRODUCED
MENTION OF HEAVY (SOAKING) RAIN AT TIMES THURSDAY AFTERNOON.

...DISCUSSION...
SFC QUASI STNRY FRONT FROM THE SOUTHERN SHORELINE OF LAKE
ERIE...EAST INTO THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS WILL SLOWLY SAG TO THE SOUTH
TONIGHT.

LOWER BOUNDARY LAYER LI/S ARE CURRENTLY IN THE -2 TO -4 RANGE WEST
OF THE ALLEGHENYS WITH SFC DWPTS CREEPING INTO THE L50S. SOME OF
THIS MORE JUICY AIR WILL NOSE INTO OUR SRN AND WRN CWA
COUNTIES...BEFORE IT GETS SHUNTED TO THE SSW LATER TONIGHT.

TSRA OVER CENT OHIO WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY EARLY THIS EVENING AS
THEY APPROACH THE WRN PA BORDER...BEFORE WEAKENING TO SHOWERS EARLY
TONIGHT ACROSS WCENT PA. TEMPS WILL HOVER WITHIN A COUPLE DEG OF 50
ACROSS THE CENTRAL COUNTIES TONIGHT...AND WILL FALL TO THE MID-UPR
40S ACROSS THE NRN MOUNTAINS. READINGS WILL STAY STEADY OR SLOWLY
RISE OVER THE SOUTHERN COUNTIES.

FOR THURSDAY...120 KT H3 JET LIFTING NE OVER THE TENNESSEE VALLEY
AND CENT APPALACHIANS WILL STRENGTHEN THE SRLY LLVL FLOW WITHIN THE
THERMALLY INDIRECT CELL. STRONG UVVEL WILL BECOME FOCUSED E/W ACROSS
PA FROM THE LATE MORNING THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING
HOURS...SUPPORTING A STEADY...SOAKING RAIN FOR MOST OF THE STATE.

QUASI-STNRY FRONT DRAPED ACROSS THE SRN COUNTIES WILL HELP TO FOCUS
SCATTERED...STRONG TSRA DURING MAX HEATING WITH ETA LI/S DOWN TO
AROUND -4 AT 18-22Z. QPF TOTALS FROM 12Z TO 00Z FRI ROUGHLY AROUND AN
INCH ACROSS THE CENTRAL AND NORTH.  HIGHER QPF (LOCALLY 1.5 TO 2.0)
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE SOUTHERN TIER WHERE CONVECTION COMES INTO PLAY.

MODELS AGREE ON TAPERING PRECIP OFF FROM THE NW THURSDAY
NIGHT...FOLLOWED BY VERY COOL AIR AND WINDY CONDITIONS FOR FRIDAY.
I EVEN INCLUDED A FEW FLURRIES AT THE TAIL END OF THE PRECIP OVER
THE NCENT MOUNTAINS LATER THURSDAY...AND AGAIN ON FRIDAY. MOST AREAS
SHOULD SEE A DECENT AMOUNT OF SUN MIXING IN FRIDAY AFTERNOON...THOUGH
TEMPS WILL ONLY RANGE FROM AROUND 40 OVER THE NRN MOUNTAINS...TO
ABOUT 50 OVER THE SRN COUNTIES.

LAMBERT