Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 73, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at May 6, 1998, 4:15 PM EDT for Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 3 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- May 6, 1998, 4:15 PM EDT (20:15 UTC)
- Expired
- May 6, 1998, 7:15 PM EDT
- In force
- 3 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Whole counties
County Lancaster County, PA
The radar
The Dover AFB radar (KDOX), 152 km from the middle of the area, began a volume at 20:19 UTC, the scan nearest the moment this went out.
Open the radar archive at this moment
The archived warnings, watches and discussions in force at that minute are drawn over the scan, this one among them.
The nearest sounding before it
Phillips Aaf/Abe, MD (KAPG), launched 12:00Z, 8.3 hours before the alert went out and 65 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 230 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- -8 J/kg
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 463 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 33 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -9 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- 35 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- -0.0
- Supercell composite
- -0.1
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KCTP 062015 FFWCTP PAC071-062315- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLASH FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 415 PM EDT WED MAY 6 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A * FLASH FLOOD WARNING FOR... LANCASTER COUNTY IN SOUTHEASTERN PENNSYLVANIA * UNTIL 715 PM EDT * AT 410 PM STATE COLLEGE DOPPLER RADAR INDICATED VERY HEAVY RAIN FALLING OVER MUCH OF LANCASTER COUNTY. THE RAIN WILL TAPER OFF TO SCATTERED SHOWERS BEFORE 6PM...BUT RUNOFF FROM THE EARLIER THUNDERSTORMS WILL CONTINUE TO CAUSE PROBLEMS INTO THE EVENING HOURS. * EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT OFFICIALS REPORT MANY ROADS FLOODED IN AND AROUND LITITZ. DON'T DRIVE ACROSS FLOODED ROADS! MOST FLASH FLOOD DEATHS OCCUR IN AUTOMOBILES. LA CORTE IF FLASH FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. &
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at May 6, 3:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, May 6, 3:10 PM EDT, 1 hour 5 minutes before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 310 PM EDT WED MAY 6 1998 ...WORKZONES SENT TO NWSFO/S PIT AND PHL VIA PHLADMCTP... ...DISCUSSION... SHOWERS TRAINING ACROSS THE AREA JUST EAST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA RIVER LATE THIS AFTERNOON AS THE UPPER LOW DRIFTS SLOWLY EAST ACROSS SOUTHERN PA. 88-D INDICATES 3 HOUR TOTALS LOCALIZED TOTALS OF OVER 2 INCHES IN A FEW SPOTS...FFG GUIDANCE RANGES FROM 2 TO 3 INCHES IN THAT AREA. CONSIDERED A SHORT-FUSED WATCH BUT UPPER LOW APPEARS TO BE MOVING A BIT FASTER THAN YESTERDAY AND SHOWERS WILL BE OUT OF THE AREA BY EARLY EVENING. WEST OF THE SUSQUEHANNA ENOUGH DRY AIR APPEARS TO BE IN PLACE SO THAT NOTHING WILL DEVELOP THIS EVENING. SKIES WILL CLEAR ACROSS THE ENTIRE CWA LATER TONIGHT. NEXT SYSTEM APPROACHES THE FA ON THURSDAY. MODELS INDICATE THAT RAIN WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SW THIRD OF THE CWA THURSDAY AFTERNOON... THEN ACROSS THE REST OF THE CWA THURSDAY NIGHT. ENOUGH INSTABILITY IS INDICATED FOR A MENTION OF THUNDER WEST OF THE ALLEGHENY MTNS THURSDAY NIGHT...THEN ANYWHERE FRIDAY. MODELS INDICATE A GOOD SE FLOW DEVELOPING THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY WITH THE ETA FORECASTING 40 TO 50 KTS AT 850 MB WITH A PRONOUNCED THETA-E AXIS ORIENTED SE TO NW FROM THE DELMARVA AREA. THE NGM SHOWS MORE OF A SOUTHERLY ORIENTATION WITH THE MAX ORIGINATING OVER ERN TN. DETAILS ARE UNCERTAIN AT THIS TIME BUT THERE CERTAINLY APPEARS TO BE THE POTENTIAL FOR A MODERATE TO HEAVY RAIN EVENT. THE EVENT COULD ALSO BE OF PARTICULARLY LONG DURATION AS THE 60/72 HR AVN INDICATES THAT THE UPPER SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE SLOWLY ESE TOWARD THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS INTO SATURDAY. WILL ISSUE AN ESF TO ALERT THE AREA THAT A POTENTIALLY SIGNIFICANT RAIN EVENT IS POSSIBLE FRIDAY INTO THE WEEKEND. MSE
The office that day
Everything else NWS State College, PA issued on the same UTC day.
| Issued | Product | Office | Counties | Lasted |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| May 5, 8:21 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Bedford | 6 hr |
| May 5, 10:13 PM EDT | Flash Flood Warning | CTP | Cambria, Somerset | 4 hr |
| May 6, 3:02 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 63 min |
| May 6, 3:06 PM EDT | Severe Thunderstorm Warning | CTP | Lancaster | 64 min |
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive; radar from the NEXRAD Level II archive.