Flash Flood Warning 70, NWS State College, PA

CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
315 PM EDT TUE MAY 5 1998

WRKZNS SENT TO PHL AND PIT VIA PHLAFDCTP

...DISCUSSION...

UPPER LOW CONTINUES TO SPIN ACROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIAN MTNS THIS
AFTERNOON. A CONVERGENCE ZONE HAS SET UP ROUGHLY FROM JUST WEST OF
HARRISBURG TO JUST EAST OF STATE COLLEGE THIS AFTERNOON AND RAIN HAS
BEEN PERSISTANT IN THAT AREA...JUST SCATTERED OUTSIDE OF THAT BAND.
6 HOUR FFG GUIDANCE IN THAT AREA IS AROUND 3 INCHES. WITH DEW PTS
ONLY IN THE 50S AND PWATS BELOW AN INCH FEEL THAT 3 INCHES WILL NOT
BE REACHED...ALTHOUGH SOME LOCALIZED 2 INCH AMOUNTS ARE POSSIBLE IN
BEST TRAINING AREAS. THEREFORE DID NOT GO WITH AN FFA. SHOWERS WILL
PROBABLY BE INHIBITED JUST OUTSIDE OF THE BAND EARLY THIS
EVENING...WITH SCATTERED SHOWERS ELSEWHERE AS SOME BREAKS HAVE
DEVELOPED IN PRESENCE OF COLD AIR ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPPER
LOW. THE CONVERGENCE AREA WILL WEAKEN AND SHIFT SLOWLY EAST THIS
EVENING AS THE UPPER SYSTEM CONTINUES TO MOVE EAST.

ON WEDNESDAY...THE UPPER SYSTEM IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK EAST AWAY
FROM PA A BIT SLOWER THAN WHAT WAS SHOWN YESTERDAY. BASED ON MODEL
KS AND LAPSE RATES WENT WITH A CHC POP FOR THE NE 1/3 OF THE CWA.
ELSEWHERE SKIES WILL BE PARTLY SUNNY.

NEXT SYSTEM WILL APPROACH THE FORECAST AREA ON THURSDAY. WENT WITH
CHC POPS DURING THE AFTERNOON FOR THE WEST HALF OF THE CWA AND
INCREASING CLOUDS WITH NO POPS FOR THE EAST HALF.

MSE