Alert archive / Pennsylvania / Flash Flood Warnings in 1998
Flash Flood Warning 54, NWS State College, PA
NWS State College, PA issued this flash flood warning at Apr 9, 1998, 10:00 PM EDT for Lancaster County, Pennsylvania. It was in force for 5 hr. No storm report in the archive falls inside the area while it was in force.
The area
The counties it named.
The facts
- Issued
- Apr 9, 1998, 10:00 PM EDT (02:00 UTC)
- Expired
- Apr 10, 1998, 2:30 AM EDT
- In force
- 5 hr
- Issued by
- NWS State College, PA
- Area
- Whole counties
County Lancaster County, PA
The nearest sounding before it
Washington/Dulle, VA (KIAD), launched 00:00Z, 2.0 hours before the alert went out and 157 km from the middle of its area. This is the routine balloon launch nearest before it, the air the forecaster had in hand, not a measurement taken for the alert.
- Mixed-layer CAPE
- 0 J/kg
- Mixed-layer CIN
- No buoyant parcel
- Mixed-layer LCL
- 809 m above ground
- 0-6 km bulk shear
- 47 kt
- 0-1 km storm-relative helicity
- -162 m²/s²
- 0-3 km storm-relative helicity
- -130 m²/s²
- Significant tornado parameter
- 0.0
- Supercell composite
- 0.0
The text
As transmitted, in the capitals the NWS used until 2016.
000 TTAA00 KCTP 100202 FFWCTP PAC071-100630- BULLETIN - EAS ACTIVATION REQUESTED FLOOD WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 1000 PM EDT THU APR 9 1998 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN STATE COLLEGE HAS ISSUED A FLOOD WARNING EFFECTIVE UNTIL 230 AM EDT FOR PEOPLE IN THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...... IN PENNSYLVANIA ...LANCASTER COUNTY ALTHOUGH RAIN HAS ENDED ACROSS THE COUNTY THIS EVENING...SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS CONTINUE TO RISE DUE TO RUNOFF FROM TODAY/S RAIN. ADDITIONAL RAIN IS FORECAST TO MOVE BACK INTO THE COUNTY OVERNIGHT. STREAM GAUGES INDICATE THAT CHICKIES CREEK AT MANHEIM HAS RISEN TO NEAR FLOOD STAGE OF 8 FEET. THE CREEK WILL CONTINUE TO RISE AND CREST A FOOT OR TWO OVER BANKFULL DURING THE NEXT SEVERAL HOURS. STREAM GAGES ALSO INDICATE THAT COCALICO CREEK AT EPHRATA WAS RISING RAPIDLY AND WILL LIKELY CREST AT OR SLIGHTLY ABOVE BANKFULL. BE ESPECIALLY CAUTIOUS AT NIGHT WHEN IT IS HARDER TO RECOGNIZE THE DANGERS OF FLOODS. IF FLOODING IS OBSERVED...ACT QUICKLY. MOVE UP TO ESCAPE FLOOD WATERS. DO NOT STAY IN AREAS SUBJECT TO FLOODING WHEN WATER BEGINS RISING. JUNG
What forecasters said that day
The local office's own words before this flash flood warning went out, as it sent them, from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service text.
NWS State College, PA wrote its last area forecast discussion before this flash flood warning went out at Apr 9, 9:30 PM EDT, 30 minutes earlier.
Area forecast discussion, Apr 9, 9:30 PM EDT, 30 minutes before
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA 930 PM EDT THU APR 9 1998...UPDATED ...ZONE SUGGESTIONS... UPDATED FOR LAST MINUTE FLOOD WATCH RECONSIDERATIONS. WHILE THREAT OF PRECIP MAY LAST A LITTLE LONGER THAN OLD ZONES INDICATED...THINK THREAT OF HEAVY PRECIP WILL DWINDLE. HOWEVER LONGEVITY OF PRECIP OVER NRN COUNTIES ARGUES FOR CONTINUATION OF FLOOD WATCH INTO WEE HOURS. THINK SNOW OVER NRN SUSQ IS MAINLY AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS. SPOTTER REPORTS SHOW CREEKS AND STREAMS RUNNING HIGH BUT NO FLOODING TO REPORT. ...DISCUSSION... A STORM WITH A LITTLE BIT OF SOMETHING FOR EVERYONE. WE HAD PEA SIZED HAIL REPORTED OUT OF THE AREA NORTH OF ALTOONA...HEAVY RAIN OVER A WIDESPREAD PORTION OF THE CWA...AND EVEN 3 IN OF SNOW OVER THE HIGH ELEVATIONS OF TIOGA COUNTY. COMPLEX SYSTEM IS FINALLY SHOWING SIGNS OF MOVING AWAY AS CENTER REDEVELOPS RAPIDLY ALONG COAST IN THE VICINITY OF THE DELMARVA. SURFACE PRESSURES FALLING RESPECTABLY FOR APRIL...5 TO 7MB PER 3HR ...WITH THE CENTER OF THE LOW ALREADY DOWN NEAR 988MB. SATELLITE AND REGIONAL RADAR PLOTS SHOW HUGE DEFORMATION ZONE ROTATING SLOWLY THRU THE NERN PART OF OUR CWA. MESO ETA SHOWS STRONG FRONTOGENESIS BEING FORCED IN DEFORMING UPPER FLOW AS SFC LOW ON COAST RAPIDLY BECOMES DOMINANT FEATURE. MODELS REDISTRIBUTE UPPER TROF QUICKLY EAST IN RESPONSE TO DEEPENING COASTAL CYCLONE AND THIS RESULTS IN DEFORMATION ZONE SAGGING SOUTH THRU PA TONITE BEFORE WEAKENING EARLY FRI. WHAT THIS MEANS IS THAT PRECIP MAY BE SLOW TO DWINDLE OVERNIGHT AS BEST FORCING ELONGATES EAST-WEST AND SETTLES SOUTH BEFORE MOVING AWAY. THE THREAT OF PRECIP WILL LIKELY STICK AROUND AS THE FORCING WILL BE SLOW TO LEAVE...BUT PROGGED LOW LEVEL FLOW INDICATES WE LOSE BEST EASTERLY FLOW...MOISTURE ADVECTION...JUST AFTER 06Z SO THINK THREAT FOR HEAVY PRECIP WILL CONTINUE TO DWINDLE. DRYING DOES LOOK PROMISING FOR FRIDAY AS SFC HIGH BUILDS IN FROM GR LAKES AND LOW LEVEL FLOW COMES AROUND TO THE NORTH OR NORTHEAST. STRONG HGHT RISES ALOFT REPLACE TROF AS RIDGE BUILDS QUICKLY INTO THE REGION. DESPITE CURRENT TRENDS WHICH SUGGEST LITTLE TENDENCY FOR DRY AIR IN SRN CANADA TO SETTLE SOUTH...AM CONFIDENT FRIDAY WILL SEE IMPROVING CONDITIONS UNDER RAPIDLY REORIENTING FLOW. MODEL SOUNDINGS SHOW FLOW THRU BOUNDARY LAYER SHIFTING TO NORTH OR NORTHEAST. EVEN NORMALLY VERY MOIST ETA SHOWS SIG DRYING IN LOW LEVELS GIVING EVEN MORE CONFIDENCE TO OPTIMISTIC OUTLOOK. LA CORTE
Nearby
Flash Flood Warnings in Pennsylvania, 1998Every flash flood warning in 1998
Sources
The product and its follow-ups from the Iowa Environmental Mesonet's archive of National Weather Service and Storm Prediction Center text; the sounding from the Mesonet's radiosonde archive.