Severe Thunderstorm Warning 77, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
220 PM EDT SUN SEP 27 1998

CDFNT WL MOV THRU FA TONITE...TO BE FOLLOWED BY HI PRES WHICH WL
DOMINATE WX MON/TUE.

KCXX/KTYX NOT SHOWING ANY SHRA/TSRA ACTIVITY ACRS FA ATTM.  RATHER
LARGE AREA OF STORMS MOVG ACRS W-CNTRL NY WL RMN SOUTH OF FA.
MEANWHILE...SOME SHWRS/TSTRMS HAVER BEGUN TO DVLP DURING PAST HR
OVER SRN ONT/QUE.  WITH APRCH OF CDFNT...XPC THIS ACTIVITY TO BCM
MORE ORGANIZED.  INSTABILITY FCST BY ETA LOOKS TO BE UNDERDONE AS BL
TEMPS TOO LOW.  MODIFIED SOUNDING RESULT IN CAPES 1000-2000 J/KG AND
LI'S -3 TO -5.  WITH UNIDIRECTIONAL FLOW...MAIN THREAT WITH ANY
CONVECTION WL BE STRAIGHT LINE WNDS.

CDFNT WL MOV THRU FA BTWN 00Z-06Z...AFTER WHICH TIME THREAT OF TSRA
ENDS.  HOWEVER...XPC LINGERING -SHRA...MAINLY OVR HIR TRRN OF NRN
ZONES AS SHRTWV MOVS THRU RGN FOLLOWED BY STG CAA.

HI PRES THEN BLDS EAST FROM GRTLKS/OH VLY MON THRU MON NITE...
REACHING MID ATLTC CST TUES.  DESPITE ACYC FLOW MONDAY...XPC PLENTY
OF CLDS AS LLVL MSTR RMNS ABUNDANT.  COULD EVEN BE A FEW SPRINKLES
OVR MTNS.  XPC GUSTY NW WNDS AND TEMPS NOTICEABLY COOLER THAN TDA.

MON NITE: M/CLR...CHILLY.
TUE: SS THRU INCR HI CLDS.

rFWC TEMP GUID GENERALLY OK TON/MON.  WOULD GO A FEW DEG BLO GUID MON
NITE/TUE.

RJS

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