Flash Flood Warning 68, NWS Burlington, VT

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BURLINGTON VT
200 AM EST THU APR 2 1998

NEXT BATCH OF SHOWERS ACROSS WESTERN NEW YORK IN ASSOCIATION WITH
UPPER LOW. FOG IS SETTLING IN ACROSS AREA.

UPPER LOW AND SURFACE TROUGH TO MOVE ACROSS FORECAST AREA LATE
TODAY/TONIGHT. H5 TEMPERATURES TO -28. FAIRLY STEEP LAPSE RATES THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING. MAY BE SOME LOW TOPPED THUNDERSTORMS AND
PERHAPS SMALL HAIL.

FLOOD WATCHES REMAIN UP THROUGH THE DAY. MOST RIVERS FALLING OR HAVE
STABILIZED...BUT STILL IN FLOOD. RAIN TODAY MORE CONVECTIVE AND
SHOULD YIELD LOWER BASIN AVERAGES THAN ON WEDNESDAY. QPF THIS
FORECAST PERIOD SCATTERED 1/4 TO 3/4 OF AN INCH AND THIS SHOULD NOT
HAVE A SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON RIVERS. I EXPECT THAT WORST OF FLOODING
HAS ALREADY OCCURRED...EXCEPT ALONG THE SHORES OF LAKE CHAMPLAIN.

UPPER LOW JUST EAST OF FORECAST AREA BY 06Z...BUT SURFACE TROUGH
SLOWLY PIVOTING THROUGH VERY LATE THURSDAY AND ON FRIDAY. SHOWERS
MAY BECOME SNOW SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN BY FRIDAY MORNING. COLD
AIR DEEPENS ON FRIDAY AND SO ANY SHOWERS IN HIGHER TERRAIN WILL BE
SNOW WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS ELSEWHERE.

FORECAST SUGGESTIONS...

TODAY...AREAS OF FOG EARLY THIS MORNING...OTHERWISE CLOUDS MIXING
WITH SOME SUNSHINE. BECOMING MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS AND A CHANCE
OF A THUNDERSTORM THIS AFTERNOON. HIGH 45 TO 50. SOUTHWEST WIND 5 TO
15 MPH.

TONIGHT...CLOUDY WITH SHOWERS. (SHOWERS MAY CHANGE TO SNOW SHOWERS
IN HIGHER TERRAIN LATE). LOW IN THE MID 30S (LOWER 30S HIGHER
TERRAIN). SOUTHWEST WIND BECOMING NORTH 5 TO 15 MPH (SOUTHWEST TO
WEST WIND 5 TO 15 MPH C AND S FA).

FRIDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY WITH RAIN OR SNOW SHOWERS LIKELY (SNOW
SHOWERS HIGHER TERRAIN). HIGH 35 TO 40 (MID 30S HIGHER TERRAIN/40 TO
45 S VT).

DIGIORGI